🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does a negative real interest rate mean?
What does a negative real interest rate mean?
Anonymous Quiz
34%
Rates are below 0%
38%
Inflation is higher than nominal rates
6%
Bond yields are rising
22%
Deflation is occurring
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GOLD – Stuck in the Range
Gold has been trading in a defined range since April. Within that range, price broke below an upward trendline, retested it, and has since stayed underneath — offering no clear directional bias for now.
On the geopolitical front, Trump announced he will meet with Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine — a move that could avert further U.S. sanctions on Moscow.
Losses may be limited by ongoing trade concerns and growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Last Thursday, higher U.S. tariffs on imports from several countries took effect, leaving some trade partners scrambling for better terms.
This week, traders will watch key data points: CPI, PPI, and retail sales data closely for clues on the Fed’s policy outlook. Markets are also awaiting clarification from the White House on its tariff stance toward gold bars, after a recent U.S. government ruling said they’d be subject to duties.
Gold has been trading in a defined range since April. Within that range, price broke below an upward trendline, retested it, and has since stayed underneath — offering no clear directional bias for now.
On the geopolitical front, Trump announced he will meet with Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine — a move that could avert further U.S. sanctions on Moscow.
Losses may be limited by ongoing trade concerns and growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Last Thursday, higher U.S. tariffs on imports from several countries took effect, leaving some trade partners scrambling for better terms.
This week, traders will watch key data points: CPI, PPI, and retail sales data closely for clues on the Fed’s policy outlook. Markets are also awaiting clarification from the White House on its tariff stance toward gold bars, after a recent U.S. government ruling said they’d be subject to duties.
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USD/JPY – Watching the Pullback
USD/JPY briefly broke above the key 149 level last week, but the move faded after softer U.S. labor data. Since then, price has held up around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, with buyers stepping back in and pushing it higher.
The dollar has been under pressure across the board since the NFP miss, as weaker jobs data triggered a dovish shift in Fed expectations. Markets are now pricing in around 58 bps of easing by year-end, up from 35 bps before the jobs report. If incoming data stays soft, Fed Chair Powell may open the door for a September cut.
The next key catalyst is tomorrow’s CPI release. Given recent Fed comments, it would likely take very hot inflation data—and another strong NFP in September—to derail the growing odds of a cut.
On the Yen side, gains came largely from Dollar losses. For more JPY strength, markets would need either continued weak U.S. data, stronger Japanese inflation (to justify additional BoJ hikes), or signs of more fiscal stimulus in Japan.
USD/JPY briefly broke above the key 149 level last week, but the move faded after softer U.S. labor data. Since then, price has held up around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, with buyers stepping back in and pushing it higher.
The dollar has been under pressure across the board since the NFP miss, as weaker jobs data triggered a dovish shift in Fed expectations. Markets are now pricing in around 58 bps of easing by year-end, up from 35 bps before the jobs report. If incoming data stays soft, Fed Chair Powell may open the door for a September cut.
The next key catalyst is tomorrow’s CPI release. Given recent Fed comments, it would likely take very hot inflation data—and another strong NFP in September—to derail the growing odds of a cut.
On the Yen side, gains came largely from Dollar losses. For more JPY strength, markets would need either continued weak U.S. data, stronger Japanese inflation (to justify additional BoJ hikes), or signs of more fiscal stimulus in Japan.
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EdgeFinder's COT Data History
Latest COT data shows a notable drop in USD long contracts, suggesting traders either took profits or stepped out ahead of this week’s CPI print. Short positioning hasn’t seen a meaningful jump — meaning this isn’t necessarily a full-on bearish shift, but more of a step back.
This type of positioning often signals caution — traders are waiting for fresh data before committing to a directional bias. A cooler CPI could open the door for more USD softness, while a hotter print might re-ignite long positioning.
EdgeFinder users can track these real-time positioning shifts to better gauge market sentiment before and after key data releases.
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Latest COT data shows a notable drop in USD long contracts, suggesting traders either took profits or stepped out ahead of this week’s CPI print. Short positioning hasn’t seen a meaningful jump — meaning this isn’t necessarily a full-on bearish shift, but more of a step back.
This type of positioning often signals caution — traders are waiting for fresh data before committing to a directional bias. A cooler CPI could open the door for more USD softness, while a hotter print might re-ignite long positioning.
EdgeFinder users can track these real-time positioning shifts to better gauge market sentiment before and after key data releases.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What’s the main goal of the Federal Reserve?
What’s the main goal of the Federal Reserve?
Anonymous Quiz
13%
Balanced trade
2%
High stock market
12%
Strong dollar & low oil prices
73%
Stable prices & maximum employment
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GBP/USD - Holding Above Support
GBP caught a bid early in the morning when seeing some better-than-expected labor data. GBP/USD held above resistance at 1.34500. A hold above the level would signal continued upside.
Fundamentally, UK payrolls dipped by only 8,000 in July, vs the 20,000 expected drop. Revisions to prior months also showed fewer losses than initially reported, hinting the job market is holding up despite the government’s £26B tax increase.
Unemployment stayed at 4.7%, a four-year high, while wage growth in the private sector eased slightly to 4.8% but remains well above the BoE’s target comfort for 2% inflation.
The data leaves the BoE juggling persistent inflation pressures against signs of labor market softness after last week’s narrow decision to cut rates by 25 bps.
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GBP caught a bid early in the morning when seeing some better-than-expected labor data. GBP/USD held above resistance at 1.34500. A hold above the level would signal continued upside.
Fundamentally, UK payrolls dipped by only 8,000 in July, vs the 20,000 expected drop. Revisions to prior months also showed fewer losses than initially reported, hinting the job market is holding up despite the government’s £26B tax increase.
Unemployment stayed at 4.7%, a four-year high, while wage growth in the private sector eased slightly to 4.8% but remains well above the BoE’s target comfort for 2% inflation.
The data leaves the BoE juggling persistent inflation pressures against signs of labor market softness after last week’s narrow decision to cut rates by 25 bps.
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DXY – Mixed Inflation
DXY spiked into the $99 resistance yesterday before sharply retracing, leaving traders debating whether it was just a blip or a sign of where price is headed next. Today, price action is flat despite the headline CPI release.
Headline inflation held at 2.7%, just under the 2.8% forecast, while core inflation ticked up to 3.1% — its highest in six months. The mixed data keeps the Fed’s September rate cut odds alive, but the core uptick could slow the pace of easing if it becomes a trend.
From here, traders will watch upcoming PPI and retail sales for confirmation. Softer prints could reinforce the case for a cut, while stronger numbers — especially on core prices — may give the dollar some support at key levels.
DXY spiked into the $99 resistance yesterday before sharply retracing, leaving traders debating whether it was just a blip or a sign of where price is headed next. Today, price action is flat despite the headline CPI release.
Headline inflation held at 2.7%, just under the 2.8% forecast, while core inflation ticked up to 3.1% — its highest in six months. The mixed data keeps the Fed’s September rate cut odds alive, but the core uptick could slow the pace of easing if it becomes a trend.
From here, traders will watch upcoming PPI and retail sales for confirmation. Softer prints could reinforce the case for a cut, while stronger numbers — especially on core prices — may give the dollar some support at key levels.
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EdgeFinder's CPI Chart
Inflation is showing mixed signals. Headline CPI held at 2.7% in July, just shy of the 2.8% forecast, while core CPI rose to 3.1%, the highest since January. Notably, this is the same core reading we saw during the October 2024 uptick.
What this could mean:
- The core move higher suggests underlying price pressures aren’t easing as quickly as hoped.
- The Fed’s September cut is still on the table, but another jump in core could slow the pace of rate cuts.
The big question:
Will inflation flare up again like late last year, or can the Fed guide it lower without damaging growth?
The balancing act:
- If inflation stays high too long: The Fed risks losing credibility and allowing expectations to drift higher — making the problem harder to solve.
- If rates stay high too long: Growth and jobs could take a hit, increasing recession risks.
Traders will be watching PPI and retail sales next for further context.
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Inflation is showing mixed signals. Headline CPI held at 2.7% in July, just shy of the 2.8% forecast, while core CPI rose to 3.1%, the highest since January. Notably, this is the same core reading we saw during the October 2024 uptick.
What this could mean:
- The core move higher suggests underlying price pressures aren’t easing as quickly as hoped.
- The Fed’s September cut is still on the table, but another jump in core could slow the pace of rate cuts.
The big question:
Will inflation flare up again like late last year, or can the Fed guide it lower without damaging growth?
The balancing act:
- If inflation stays high too long: The Fed risks losing credibility and allowing expectations to drift higher — making the problem harder to solve.
- If rates stay high too long: Growth and jobs could take a hit, increasing recession risks.
Traders will be watching PPI and retail sales next for further context.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What’s the Fed’s target inflation rate?
What’s the Fed’s target inflation rate?
Anonymous Quiz
7%
5%
19%
3.5%
5%
0%
69%
2%
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USD/CHF - Stalling for Now
USD pairs slipped overnight as traders digested the latest U.S. inflation figures. At this point, the debate isn’t if the Fed will cut rates — but by how much. That question took on new weight after Treasury Secretary Bessent floated the idea of a 50 bps cut.
Technically, USD/CHF is hovering near a key support level. A decisive break and retest below could open the door for more downside, while holding the level may keep the daily uptrend intact, as no new lower low has formed yet.
Market focus now shifts to upcoming PPI and Retail Sales data, which could determine whether the dollar steadies or continues its slide.
USD pairs slipped overnight as traders digested the latest U.S. inflation figures. At this point, the debate isn’t if the Fed will cut rates — but by how much. That question took on new weight after Treasury Secretary Bessent floated the idea of a 50 bps cut.
Technically, USD/CHF is hovering near a key support level. A decisive break and retest below could open the door for more downside, while holding the level may keep the daily uptrend intact, as no new lower low has formed yet.
Market focus now shifts to upcoming PPI and Retail Sales data, which could determine whether the dollar steadies or continues its slide.
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NASDAQ – The Beneficiary
US Equity indexes like the Nasdaq were the main beneficiaries of yesterdays inflation data, hitting fresh record highs today as traders grew more confident the Federal Reserve could resume its rate-cutting cycle as early as next month.
Even with core inflation posting its largest monthly increase of the year, markets looked past the number, focusing instead on recent softness in the labor market and leadership changes at the Fed — factors that bolstered the case for a dovish pivot in September.
Futures markets now price in a 98% probability of a 25 bps cut, up from about 89% the day before.
Nasdaq has been on a tear lately -- leaving little-to-no pullback opportunities for buyers.
US Equity indexes like the Nasdaq were the main beneficiaries of yesterdays inflation data, hitting fresh record highs today as traders grew more confident the Federal Reserve could resume its rate-cutting cycle as early as next month.
Even with core inflation posting its largest monthly increase of the year, markets looked past the number, focusing instead on recent softness in the labor market and leadership changes at the Fed — factors that bolstered the case for a dovish pivot in September.
Futures markets now price in a 98% probability of a 25 bps cut, up from about 89% the day before.
Nasdaq has been on a tear lately -- leaving little-to-no pullback opportunities for buyers.
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EdgeFinder's Indices Scanner
The Nasdaq continues to hold its bullish bias on the EdgeFinder, scoring an 8 overall. Rate cut expectations remain a major driver, with interest rate futures now showing nearly full pricing for a 25bps Fed cut next month. This dovish backdrop is helping keep sentiment positive across equities.
From a positioning standpoint, the latest COT data shows institutional traders holding 62.15% long positions versus 37.85% short, with total long contracts at 86,551 compared to 52,715 shorts. This reflects a strong net-long stance despite a slight weekly decline of -0.79% in positioning.
Retail sentiment is also tilted bullish at 55.5% long, suggesting alignment between institutional and retail traders. Still, with core inflation recently ticking higher and growth data mixed, traders will be watching upcoming PPI and Retail Sales closely to gauge if this bullish momentum can continue or if the market needs to reprice Fed expectations.
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The Nasdaq continues to hold its bullish bias on the EdgeFinder, scoring an 8 overall. Rate cut expectations remain a major driver, with interest rate futures now showing nearly full pricing for a 25bps Fed cut next month. This dovish backdrop is helping keep sentiment positive across equities.
From a positioning standpoint, the latest COT data shows institutional traders holding 62.15% long positions versus 37.85% short, with total long contracts at 86,551 compared to 52,715 shorts. This reflects a strong net-long stance despite a slight weekly decline of -0.79% in positioning.
Retail sentiment is also tilted bullish at 55.5% long, suggesting alignment between institutional and retail traders. Still, with core inflation recently ticking higher and growth data mixed, traders will be watching upcoming PPI and Retail Sales closely to gauge if this bullish momentum can continue or if the market needs to reprice Fed expectations.
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