USD/JPY – Sitting at Resistance
USD/JPY is trading up near the $148.000 mark — a key level that’s acted as resistance before. Price is now hanging in the upper portion of that range. A clean break and retest, either above or below, could give some insight into where this pair heads next.
Fundamentally, the Yen has been under pressure heading into Sunday’s upper house election in Japan. Polls suggest the ruling party may lose its majority, which adds a layer of political uncertainty — and could muddy the waters in Japan’s ongoing tariff talks with the US
Meanwhile, the Dollar has held firm this week, riding the wave of strong economic data. Tariff negotiations remain a weight on the Yen, especially with Japan still stuck in a deadlock with Washington over autos and agriculture — two politically sensitive areas.
USD/JPY is trading up near the $148.000 mark — a key level that’s acted as resistance before. Price is now hanging in the upper portion of that range. A clean break and retest, either above or below, could give some insight into where this pair heads next.
Fundamentally, the Yen has been under pressure heading into Sunday’s upper house election in Japan. Polls suggest the ruling party may lose its majority, which adds a layer of political uncertainty — and could muddy the waters in Japan’s ongoing tariff talks with the US
Meanwhile, the Dollar has held firm this week, riding the wave of strong economic data. Tariff negotiations remain a weight on the Yen, especially with Japan still stuck in a deadlock with Washington over autos and agriculture — two politically sensitive areas.
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EdgeFinder’s Forex Scanner
US economic data continues to beat expectations, giving the Dollar some support. Meanwhile, political uncertainty looms in Japan ahead of this weekend’s upper house elections. The outcome could impact future fiscal and trade policy — especially with tariff talks still ongoing.
EdgeFinder’s Scanner Highlights:
- COT data shows heavy Yen selling and Dollar buying
- Political uncertainty in Japan
- Retail sentiment remains net short, a contrarian signal
- Seasonality and trend indicators are supportive for the Dollar
- USD/JPY has shown relative strength versus other majors this week
With technicals at resistance and fundamentals heating up, this level could prove pivotal. A breakout or rejection may guide the next leg — one to watch closely
US economic data continues to beat expectations, giving the Dollar some support. Meanwhile, political uncertainty looms in Japan ahead of this weekend’s upper house elections. The outcome could impact future fiscal and trade policy — especially with tariff talks still ongoing.
EdgeFinder’s Scanner Highlights:
- COT data shows heavy Yen selling and Dollar buying
- Political uncertainty in Japan
- Retail sentiment remains net short, a contrarian signal
- Seasonality and trend indicators are supportive for the Dollar
- USD/JPY has shown relative strength versus other majors this week
With technicals at resistance and fundamentals heating up, this level could prove pivotal. A breakout or rejection may guide the next leg — one to watch closely
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What currency is considered a safe haven?
What currency is considered a safe haven?
Anonymous Quiz
14%
Australian Dollar
2%
Mexican Peso
21%
Euro
63%
Japanese Yen
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USD/JPY – Election Results
The Yen rose sharply Monday after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house. USD/JPY dropped nearly 0.9%, with the pair trading near 147.50.
With Japanese markets closed for a public holiday, the Yen became the focal point for political risk sentiment. Despite the election result being mostly priced in, the market reacted with a defensive bid for the Yen. USD/JPY had previously hit a 3.5-month high near 149.19 last week.
While Prime Minister Ishiba vows to remain in power, internal and external pressures are mounting — including uncertainty around the U.S.-Japan tariff deadline on August 1. Markets will be watching Tuesday’s Tokyo open closely for the full reaction
The Yen rose sharply Monday after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house. USD/JPY dropped nearly 0.9%, with the pair trading near 147.50.
With Japanese markets closed for a public holiday, the Yen became the focal point for political risk sentiment. Despite the election result being mostly priced in, the market reacted with a defensive bid for the Yen. USD/JPY had previously hit a 3.5-month high near 149.19 last week.
While Prime Minister Ishiba vows to remain in power, internal and external pressures are mounting — including uncertainty around the U.S.-Japan tariff deadline on August 1. Markets will be watching Tuesday’s Tokyo open closely for the full reaction
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GOLD – Safe Haven Strength Returns
Gold surged past $3,400, reclaiming levels not seen since mid-June. The catalyst? A weaker dollar, falling Treasury yields, and growing demand for safe havens as trade tensions heat up.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick maintained optimism about a deal with the EU but made one thing clear — the August 1 tariff deadline is a hard line. While talks may continue, the baseline 10% tariff is “definitely staying,” at least for now.
The EU, in turn, is preparing its own set of countermeasures, suggesting tensions could get worse before they get better.
Meanwhile, rate cut expectations have crept higher again, with markets now pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed move in September. Add in speculation around Fed leadership changes, and it’s no surprise gold is catching a strong bid.
Gold surged past $3,400, reclaiming levels not seen since mid-June. The catalyst? A weaker dollar, falling Treasury yields, and growing demand for safe havens as trade tensions heat up.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick maintained optimism about a deal with the EU but made one thing clear — the August 1 tariff deadline is a hard line. While talks may continue, the baseline 10% tariff is “definitely staying,” at least for now.
The EU, in turn, is preparing its own set of countermeasures, suggesting tensions could get worse before they get better.
Meanwhile, rate cut expectations have crept higher again, with markets now pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed move in September. Add in speculation around Fed leadership changes, and it’s no surprise gold is catching a strong bid.
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EdgeFinder's COT Data History - Gold
Over the last few weeks, large speculators have added to their long positions, now sitting at over 270K contracts — the highest level since early May. Meanwhile, shorts have decreased slightly, keeping the long percentage firmly above 82%. Net positioning continues to climb, now at 213,115 contracts.
This steady uptick in long interest aligns with gold’s recent breakout past $3,400, reinforcing the idea that institutional players are positioning defensively amid global uncertainty and rising trade tensions.
COT data isn’t a timing tool, but it helps us understand where the “big money” is leaning — and right now, they’re leaning bullish
Over the last few weeks, large speculators have added to their long positions, now sitting at over 270K contracts — the highest level since early May. Meanwhile, shorts have decreased slightly, keeping the long percentage firmly above 82%. Net positioning continues to climb, now at 213,115 contracts.
This steady uptick in long interest aligns with gold’s recent breakout past $3,400, reinforcing the idea that institutional players are positioning defensively amid global uncertainty and rising trade tensions.
COT data isn’t a timing tool, but it helps us understand where the “big money” is leaning — and right now, they’re leaning bullish
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What’s a sign of a disciplined trader?
What’s a sign of a disciplined trader?
Anonymous Quiz
96%
Follows a trading plan
1%
Doubles down after losses
1%
Trades every setup they see
1%
Avoids stop loss
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DXY – Waiting for Clarity
The Dollar traded quietly overnight, with most major pairs seeing limited movement. DXY is sitting right at a key level — a spot that could act as support if it holds, or turn into resistance if price slips below.
All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell this morning. His comments may offer some much-needed insight into where interest rates are headed and how the Fed is thinking about the ongoing tariff situation. For now, DXY remains in limbo — waiting for direction.
The Dollar traded quietly overnight, with most major pairs seeing limited movement. DXY is sitting right at a key level — a spot that could act as support if it holds, or turn into resistance if price slips below.
All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell this morning. His comments may offer some much-needed insight into where interest rates are headed and how the Fed is thinking about the ongoing tariff situation. For now, DXY remains in limbo — waiting for direction.
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AUD/USD – More Easing to Come
AUD/USD is trading just beneath a key higher-time-frame resistance zone, with downside pressure continuing to build. Price action has been leaning bearish, and EdgeFinder aligns with a strong -7 score.
Fundamentally, RBA meeting minutes confirmed that more rate cuts are likely on the horizon. The July decision to pause at 3.85% came down to optics — officials didn’t want to ease too aggressively.
But that hesitation might be short-lived. Since then, unemployment unexpectedly jumped to a 3.5-year high, giving the central bank more reason to act. Markets are now fully pricing in a cut to 3.60% at the August 12 meeting, with rates seen dropping further by year-end
AUD/USD is trading just beneath a key higher-time-frame resistance zone, with downside pressure continuing to build. Price action has been leaning bearish, and EdgeFinder aligns with a strong -7 score.
Fundamentally, RBA meeting minutes confirmed that more rate cuts are likely on the horizon. The July decision to pause at 3.85% came down to optics — officials didn’t want to ease too aggressively.
But that hesitation might be short-lived. Since then, unemployment unexpectedly jumped to a 3.5-year high, giving the central bank more reason to act. Markets are now fully pricing in a cut to 3.60% at the August 12 meeting, with rates seen dropping further by year-end
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EdgeFinder's Forex Scanner
AUD/USD continues to slide, trading just beneath a major resistance zone with price action leaning lower — and EdgeFinder confirms the bearish bias with a -7 score.
Looking under the hood:
- COT Data shows 82% of institutional positions are short AUD.
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, its highest since 2021.
- Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs both missed, adding more fuel to the downside case.
- Interest Rate Score is also bearish for the AUD as markets fully price in an August rate cut — with more expected by year-end.
AUD/USD continues to slide, trading just beneath a major resistance zone with price action leaning lower — and EdgeFinder confirms the bearish bias with a -7 score.
Looking under the hood:
- COT Data shows 82% of institutional positions are short AUD.
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, its highest since 2021.
- Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs both missed, adding more fuel to the downside case.
- Interest Rate Score is also bearish for the AUD as markets fully price in an August rate cut — with more expected by year-end.
❤10👍5🔥2
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We've created an organized list of our recommended brokers on our website. Browse brokers by country or product and read our full broker reviews!
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What usually drives USD/JPY moves the most?
What usually drives USD/JPY moves the most?
Anonymous Quiz
9%
Oil prices
71%
Interest rate differentials
6%
S&P 500
14%
Trade volume