We are going to find out pretty quickly if oil is still bullish or not under Trump. Last time around, oil prices plunged even before the pandemic, so that is likely to happen again. There will probably be more domestic drilling, higher oil reserves, higher production. If price comes back down below $73, we could be looking at lower CPI numbers in the next few quarters. It looks like the oil trade may be on its last leg as price tests a previous support level.
-Frank
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-Frank
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Bought Bitcoin based off strong technicals on the 1D and 1W timeframes. Price hit a higher high near $110K and the retraced again. Now on its way up, the crypto could be attempting another higher high. There is a very strong level of resistance on Bitcoin's weekly chart, and these higher highs are looking like it's setting up for a breakout.
- Frank
- Frank
A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures
Forex trades recently shared in our VIP service. Staying dollar bullish for the time being.
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We know from last term that Trump was hard on the tariff policy, so that could likely be expected again. The dollar is also very sensitive to these kinds of policy as heavy tariffs on imported goods could hurt the dollar's spending power. Right now, price is up against a resistance line on the 1D timeframe and seems to be retracing from these levels. If price closes as this inverted hammer or pin bar, we could see price come down to support around 107.111.
-Frank
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-Frank
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Gold staggers before today's speech at the WEF today. Scores on the EdgeFinder have not changed from the neutral category despite the most recent run higher towards the $2,750s. Trade policy will affect everything in the market, stocks and dollar are not the only concerns. Price is at a decision point today, so we either see a turn back towards the $2,720s or break back to the highs at $2,790.
-Frank
-Frank
Smart money has been selling NAS for the past 5 weeks according to our COT data history. Just about every week, the change in long contracts is negative suggesting a lesser net position over time. Last week was the biggest positional shift of -3%. It seems that the trend for the index is a gradual increase in dumping contracts of this future's index.
-Frank
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-Frank
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US Oil Daily Chart:
Price has been pulling back the last few weeks, but seems to be finding a bit of support around the 50% retracement level. I like potential upside here, with a stop below key support. I may be taking the trade shortly within VIP - will update there.
Fundamentally: US economic data is incredibly upbeat, and signals a strong underlying demand for oil. With geopolitical risk still very present, I also think oil prices could surprise investors to the upside.
Longer term, if the Trump administration is successful in foreign policy goals (ending war in Ukraine, Middle East, China), I think oil prices could fall - but that is yet to be seen or a surefire thing.
- Nick
Price has been pulling back the last few weeks, but seems to be finding a bit of support around the 50% retracement level. I like potential upside here, with a stop below key support. I may be taking the trade shortly within VIP - will update there.
Fundamentally: US economic data is incredibly upbeat, and signals a strong underlying demand for oil. With geopolitical risk still very present, I also think oil prices could surprise investors to the upside.
Longer term, if the Trump administration is successful in foreign policy goals (ending war in Ukraine, Middle East, China), I think oil prices could fall - but that is yet to be seen or a surefire thing.
- Nick
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Wednesday is yet another decision on interest rates, and analysts are largely expecting interest to remain unchanged at 4.25%. Higher rates for longer is not ideal for the metal, and this is why we are seeing a drop in price. If the Fed does not sound aggressive on cuts anymore, it could get really bearish for gold.
We could see price come all the way back down to a supportive trend line on the 1D timeframe. This would be about a 3% decline from the highs. Risk appetite is still very present in the markets, so it's almost as if a hawkish Fed is going to hurt gold the most if they pivot that way on Wednesday.
-Frank
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We could see price come all the way back down to a supportive trend line on the 1D timeframe. This would be about a 3% decline from the highs. Risk appetite is still very present in the markets, so it's almost as if a hawkish Fed is going to hurt gold the most if they pivot that way on Wednesday.
-Frank
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Retail sentiment has shifted to heavy long on SPX, gold and oil. At the same time, the put/call ratio on DOW is heavy bearish from retail traders, as the index falls to 84% short.
-Frank
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An equally mixed reading is coming from smart money as well. They are long dollar, yen, NASDAQ, DOW. But they are also short SPX and RUSSELL. So it seems they are getting selective week-to-week on where to allocate their positions.
-Frank
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A mostly healthy US economy could suggest that the Fed should not cut anymore for the time being. If we are struggling with inflationary pressures, this may be the best move for 2025. Keeping rates as they are to battle inflation in hopes for better than expected jobs data may be the best thing for the US right now.
-Frank
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Gold Daily Chart:
Is this the top for gold, or just the beginning?
Price near all time highs could actually signal a larger breakout is closer than we think. With geopolitical uncertainty still very real, gold could potentially be the safe haven investors are looking for in 2025.
Stocks have had a very strong run, and many investors are worried about high valuations. Perhaps gold offers diversification and stability!
Technicals look strong, looking for a larger breakout and some softness in US economic data as a signal for longs.
- Nick
Is this the top for gold, or just the beginning?
Price near all time highs could actually signal a larger breakout is closer than we think. With geopolitical uncertainty still very real, gold could potentially be the safe haven investors are looking for in 2025.
Stocks have had a very strong run, and many investors are worried about high valuations. Perhaps gold offers diversification and stability!
Technicals look strong, looking for a larger breakout and some softness in US economic data as a signal for longs.
- Nick
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