Oil Pulls Back on Massive Crude Build, but Bulls Still Eye a Break Above 67
Oil is down 1.04% after fresh EIA data, but price is still holding near recent highs. For now, this looks more like a pullback within strength than a full breakdown. A clean close above 67 could keep upside momentum intact.
The move lower followed a major inventory surprise: U.S. crude stocks rose 15.989M barrels (vs. 1.5M expected), the largest weekly build in three years. Cushing and distillates also increased, while gasoline stocks declined.
On the geopolitical side, a Hezbollah official said the group would not intervene in limited U.S. strikes on Iran, easing some immediate supply-risk fears. Still, oil remains near seven-month highs as traders look ahead to U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva.
Beyond the headlines, oil remains fundamentally supported. Momentum is still strong, and COT data continues to show institutional buying, with a +2.83% positive net change—a sign that big money is still flowing into oil.
- Alan
Oil is down 1.04% after fresh EIA data, but price is still holding near recent highs. For now, this looks more like a pullback within strength than a full breakdown. A clean close above 67 could keep upside momentum intact.
The move lower followed a major inventory surprise: U.S. crude stocks rose 15.989M barrels (vs. 1.5M expected), the largest weekly build in three years. Cushing and distillates also increased, while gasoline stocks declined.
On the geopolitical side, a Hezbollah official said the group would not intervene in limited U.S. strikes on Iran, easing some immediate supply-risk fears. Still, oil remains near seven-month highs as traders look ahead to U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva.
Beyond the headlines, oil remains fundamentally supported. Momentum is still strong, and COT data continues to show institutional buying, with a +2.83% positive net change—a sign that big money is still flowing into oil.
- Alan
❤21👍10😁1
Hot Inflation Lifts RBA Rate Hike Bets
AUD/USD is trading higher by roughly 0.8% on the day, pushing up near recent highs.
The Aussie is catching a bid after hotter-than-expected inflation data reinforced the case for more RBA tightening this year. Headline CPI came in at 3.8% YoY vs 3.7% expected, while trimmed mean CPI (a key core inflation gauge) rose to 3.4%, above forecasts and December’s 3.3%.
The inflation print adds to an already firm domestic backdrop, with recent data showing low unemployment and elevated wage growth. That combination is keeping rate hike expectations alive.
Markets are now leaning toward another RBA hike in May (with the cash rate potentially moving to 4.1%) and pricing in a meaningful chance of one more hike later in the year. That said, the RBA remains data-dependent, so incoming inflation and labor data will continue to drive AUD direction.
- Alan
AUD/USD is trading higher by roughly 0.8% on the day, pushing up near recent highs.
The Aussie is catching a bid after hotter-than-expected inflation data reinforced the case for more RBA tightening this year. Headline CPI came in at 3.8% YoY vs 3.7% expected, while trimmed mean CPI (a key core inflation gauge) rose to 3.4%, above forecasts and December’s 3.3%.
The inflation print adds to an already firm domestic backdrop, with recent data showing low unemployment and elevated wage growth. That combination is keeping rate hike expectations alive.
Markets are now leaning toward another RBA hike in May (with the cash rate potentially moving to 4.1%) and pricing in a meaningful chance of one more hike later in the year. That said, the RBA remains data-dependent, so incoming inflation and labor data will continue to drive AUD direction.
- Alan
❤26👍10🔥2
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does “tail risk” refer to?
What does “tail risk” refer to?
Anonymous Quiz
52%
Low-probability, high-impact moves
28%
High-probability, high-impact moves
20%
Guaranteed losses from leverage
👍22😁2👀1
71 Days of Chop: S&P 500 Stays Rangebound
The S&P 500 has traded choppy for 71 days, with no clear directional conviction. Until price breaks the range, this remains a market that has not fully committed either way.
U.S. equities were mixed as markets digested Nvidia earnings and what they mean for the broader AI-driven rally. The S&P 500 was flat, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%, and the Dow rose 0.5%.
Even though Nvidia beat on earnings and revenue, the stock still fell, which shows how much scrutiny is building around the tech sector. Markets are becoming more skeptical that AI capex growth can keep exceeding expectations, and that is making it harder for strong results alone to push the sector higher.
Outside of tech, software names also remain under pressure as AI automation raises disruption concerns, while energy stocks softened as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks added uncertainty around sanctions and oil flows.
For now, EdgeFinder remains neutral—plenty of movement, but no clear edge.
- Alan
The S&P 500 has traded choppy for 71 days, with no clear directional conviction. Until price breaks the range, this remains a market that has not fully committed either way.
U.S. equities were mixed as markets digested Nvidia earnings and what they mean for the broader AI-driven rally. The S&P 500 was flat, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%, and the Dow rose 0.5%.
Even though Nvidia beat on earnings and revenue, the stock still fell, which shows how much scrutiny is building around the tech sector. Markets are becoming more skeptical that AI capex growth can keep exceeding expectations, and that is making it harder for strong results alone to push the sector higher.
Outside of tech, software names also remain under pressure as AI automation raises disruption concerns, while energy stocks softened as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks added uncertainty around sanctions and oil flows.
For now, EdgeFinder remains neutral—plenty of movement, but no clear edge.
- Alan
❤18👍2😎1
Gold Holds Above Breakout Zone, but Upside Remains Capped
Gold pulled back early, but price is still holding above key levels after breaking out of its prior range. Right now, it looks to be retesting what could become new support. The issue is confirmation still looks a bit messy, so this move has not fully cleaned up yet.
Gold remains supported by broader uncertainty, but the upside is being capped. On one side, ongoing trade-policy uncertainty and geopolitical tension with Iran are still keeping demand for safe havens in the mix. On the other, a firmer U.S. dollar and the prospect of a U.S.-Iran deal are limiting how far gold can run from here. Markets are also weighing the possibility that U.S. rates stay higher for longer, which adds another headwind for bullion.
With EdgeFinder showing a neutral reading, gold does not look like a high-conviction trade in either direction right now. So for now, I'll sit back, relax, and wait for the obvious trade.
- Alan
Gold pulled back early, but price is still holding above key levels after breaking out of its prior range. Right now, it looks to be retesting what could become new support. The issue is confirmation still looks a bit messy, so this move has not fully cleaned up yet.
Gold remains supported by broader uncertainty, but the upside is being capped. On one side, ongoing trade-policy uncertainty and geopolitical tension with Iran are still keeping demand for safe havens in the mix. On the other, a firmer U.S. dollar and the prospect of a U.S.-Iran deal are limiting how far gold can run from here. Markets are also weighing the possibility that U.S. rates stay higher for longer, which adds another headwind for bullion.
With EdgeFinder showing a neutral reading, gold does not look like a high-conviction trade in either direction right now. So for now, I'll sit back, relax, and wait for the obvious trade.
- Alan
👍27❤12😎1
📌 Master Technical Analysis- Free Course!
Price action tells a story—are you reading it correctly? 📉📈
Our FREE Technical Analysis Course walks you through the essential tools used by professional traders to time their entries and exits with confidence. Whether you're brand new or brushing up your skills, this course is packed with actionable insights.
🔥 What’s Inside?
✅ Support & Resistance: Spot high-probability trade zones
✅ Candlestick Patterns: Decode price movement like a pro
✅ Trendlines & Moving Averages: Ride the trend or catch reversals
✅ RSI & MACD: Learn momentum and divergence strategies
✅ Reversals vs. Breakouts: Identify powerful setups with precision
✅ Building a Technical Bias: Combine tools for stronger trade ideas
Dive into the Technical Analysis Course — completely free.
➡️ START NOW
Price action tells a story—are you reading it correctly? 📉📈
Our FREE Technical Analysis Course walks you through the essential tools used by professional traders to time their entries and exits with confidence. Whether you're brand new or brushing up your skills, this course is packed with actionable insights.
🔥 What’s Inside?
✅ Support & Resistance: Spot high-probability trade zones
✅ Candlestick Patterns: Decode price movement like a pro
✅ Trendlines & Moving Averages: Ride the trend or catch reversals
✅ RSI & MACD: Learn momentum and divergence strategies
✅ Reversals vs. Breakouts: Identify powerful setups with precision
✅ Building a Technical Bias: Combine tools for stronger trade ideas
Dive into the Technical Analysis Course — completely free.
➡️ START NOW
❤11😎1
Long awaited! We have officially added the currency indices to the EdgeFinder! 🚀 🎉
Why did we add these?
1. This gives our traders the chance to take out the counterparty specific comparison to another currency. If, for example, you wanted to analyze the current economic strength/weakness of the US-Dollar, you could study the index itself rather than individual crosses vs. the USD.
2. A specific currency can be closely analyzed under the Asset Scorecard tab 🔥
3. For futures traders that trade contracts specifically on a particular currency, this helps to isolate the readings EdgeFinder is producing.
Enjoy! 🧙♂️
Why did we add these?
1. This gives our traders the chance to take out the counterparty specific comparison to another currency. If, for example, you wanted to analyze the current economic strength/weakness of the US-Dollar, you could study the index itself rather than individual crosses vs. the USD.
2. A specific currency can be closely analyzed under the Asset Scorecard tab 🔥
3. For futures traders that trade contracts specifically on a particular currency, this helps to isolate the readings EdgeFinder is producing.
Enjoy! 🧙♂️
👍30❤19😱4
Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
😁33🔥14😎5
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does a “regime shift” usually mean in markets?
What does a “regime shift” usually mean in markets?
Anonymous Quiz
4%
A single asset decoupling from the broader market
6%
A single asset decoupling from the broader market
17%
A temporary break in an otherwise stable trend
73%
A change in the dominant market environment
😎15❤6😁2
We're LIVE on YouTube right now, currently going over some currency pair setups. Join us here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK4fIIGsBG4
YouTube
LIVE Trading PPI Data: Gold, Nasdaq, Forex | A1 Trading Show
Chat Now 💬 https://tinyurl.com/2p8unftm
Get EdgeFinder 👉 https://tinyurl.com/5zamzvkm
Get Trade Signals 👉 https://a1trading.com/vip/
(Use code A1YT for a subscriber discount!)
*Prop firm discounts from our sponsors!*
👉 20% OFF DNA Funded with code A1T20…
Get EdgeFinder 👉 https://tinyurl.com/5zamzvkm
Get Trade Signals 👉 https://a1trading.com/vip/
(Use code A1YT for a subscriber discount!)
*Prop firm discounts from our sponsors!*
👉 20% OFF DNA Funded with code A1T20…
👍7😎1
USD/CHF Drops as Safe-Haven Flows Boost the Swiss Franc
USD/CHF is under heavy pressure, down 0.88% on the day, as flows rotate into safe havens. The Swiss franc is catching a strong bid as risk sentiment softens and investors look for safety.
Switzerland’s low inflation, strong fiscal backdrop, and reputation for stability continue to make CHF one of the market’s preferred safe-haven currencies.
The franc has already surged to multi-year highs in recent months, and the broader backdrop still supports that strength. Investors continue to favor Switzerland’s stable economy, modest debt, and predictable policy environment, especially against ongoing U.S. policy uncertainty and rising geopolitical risk.
A stronger franc always raises the question of SNB intervention, since excessive strength can add deflation pressure. But for now, markets seem to believe the central bank is less willing to lean against CHF strength, which is helping keep the franc supported.
- Alan
USD/CHF is under heavy pressure, down 0.88% on the day, as flows rotate into safe havens. The Swiss franc is catching a strong bid as risk sentiment softens and investors look for safety.
Switzerland’s low inflation, strong fiscal backdrop, and reputation for stability continue to make CHF one of the market’s preferred safe-haven currencies.
The franc has already surged to multi-year highs in recent months, and the broader backdrop still supports that strength. Investors continue to favor Switzerland’s stable economy, modest debt, and predictable policy environment, especially against ongoing U.S. policy uncertainty and rising geopolitical risk.
A stronger franc always raises the question of SNB intervention, since excessive strength can add deflation pressure. But for now, markets seem to believe the central bank is less willing to lean against CHF strength, which is helping keep the franc supported.
- Alan
❤13🔥3😎1
DXY Holds Firm as Sticky Inflation Delays Fed Cut Expectations
DXY is holding above 97.7, but the bigger level remains 98. The dollar still needs a clean break and hold above 98 to show real strength. Until then, this looks more like stabilization than a true breakout.
The dollar stayed firm this week as hotter-than-expected inflation reinforced the view that the Fed may stay on hold longer. January PPI rose 0.5% MoM, above both December’s 0.4% and the 0.3% forecast, signaling that price pressures are still sticky. Labor data also came in supportive, with both initial and continuing jobless claims below expectations, pointing to a stable labor market.
That stronger data has pushed rate-cut expectations back. Markets are still pricing in at least two cuts this year, but the first is now fully priced for July instead of June. Traders are also watching potential tariff increases from 10% to 15% for some countries, along with ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks next week.
- Alan
DXY is holding above 97.7, but the bigger level remains 98. The dollar still needs a clean break and hold above 98 to show real strength. Until then, this looks more like stabilization than a true breakout.
The dollar stayed firm this week as hotter-than-expected inflation reinforced the view that the Fed may stay on hold longer. January PPI rose 0.5% MoM, above both December’s 0.4% and the 0.3% forecast, signaling that price pressures are still sticky. Labor data also came in supportive, with both initial and continuing jobless claims below expectations, pointing to a stable labor market.
That stronger data has pushed rate-cut expectations back. Markets are still pricing in at least two cuts this year, but the first is now fully priced for July instead of June. Traders are also watching potential tariff increases from 10% to 15% for some countries, along with ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks next week.
- Alan
❤24👍5🔥3
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does “positioning risk” refer to?
What does “positioning risk” refer to?
Anonymous Quiz
23%
Risk of missing an entry in a strong trending market
23%
A stop-loss being too tight
38%
The danger of crowded trades reversing
15%
A broker’s margin requirement
👍24😁2🫡2
In about an hour, markets will start to open, most likely with some gaps.
Remember, this is going to be an oil move first and foremost, with restricted supply and risk-off being the cause. The severity of safe-haven demand will follow second.
I see the usual gap risk:
S&P, Nasdaq, EM, AUD, CAD all OFF in that order.
Oil, Gold, USD ripping in that order.
USD will likely catch a bid (ex-JPY), which should be the true metric of risk-off. If that tanks, it’s real and might have legs.
If you are not experienced in this kind of gap risk, tonight is not for you.
Remember, this is going to be an oil move first and foremost, with restricted supply and risk-off being the cause. The severity of safe-haven demand will follow second.
I see the usual gap risk:
S&P, Nasdaq, EM, AUD, CAD all OFF in that order.
Oil, Gold, USD ripping in that order.
USD will likely catch a bid (ex-JPY), which should be the true metric of risk-off. If that tanks, it’s real and might have legs.
If you are not experienced in this kind of gap risk, tonight is not for you.
👍33❤24🙏4
Tips to survive:
1. In a market with lots of panic, surprise resolutions, and re-escalations, low size and wide stops are how you survive.
2. Just because there’s a gap doesn’t mean there will be follow-through immediately after. How many times have you been right on direction with a big catalyst, only for price to go against you, squeeze you out, and then finally move in that direction? (I know I’ve experienced this.)
3. If you’re in profit, don’t be greedy. Trail stops, because the world desperately wants resolution. Any sign of it will cause corrective pricing.
4. If you’re not already in the top three trades (long oil, long gold, long USD), it’s best to stay out during the open.
Finally, there are 252 trading days in a year. Tonight is not for the naive, ill-equipped, or traders looking to retire by the end of the day.
Stay safe.
- Alan
1. In a market with lots of panic, surprise resolutions, and re-escalations, low size and wide stops are how you survive.
2. Just because there’s a gap doesn’t mean there will be follow-through immediately after. How many times have you been right on direction with a big catalyst, only for price to go against you, squeeze you out, and then finally move in that direction? (I know I’ve experienced this.)
3. If you’re in profit, don’t be greedy. Trail stops, because the world desperately wants resolution. Any sign of it will cause corrective pricing.
4. If you’re not already in the top three trades (long oil, long gold, long USD), it’s best to stay out during the open.
Finally, there are 252 trading days in a year. Tonight is not for the naive, ill-equipped, or traders looking to retire by the end of the day.
Stay safe.
- Alan
❤70👍24🫡4
For my FX junkies, this one’s for you.
FX is tricky right now for two reasons:
1. We don’t know how deep the risk-off move will be.
2. Each currency has a different role.
The best setups come from pairing a very strong currency against a very weak one. That means understanding how each currency is likely to behave in this geopolitical backdrop.
Risk-Off (likely stronger at the open):
USD, CHF, JPY. A pair like USD/CHF can help show the severity of the move. If CHF is clearly outperforming USD, that signals a real flight to safety.
Risk-On (likely weaker at the open):
AUD and NZD are the two main risk-on currencies likely to bleed. I’ve already seen AUD/CHF quoted down 1.11% pre-market.
EUR, GBP, and CAD may also come under pressure as USD catches a bid.
With that in mind, avoid trading pairs that serve the same role.
CHF/JPY may stay flat because both are safe havens.
AUD/NZD may also stay flat because both are risk-on.
Cheers
- Alan
FX is tricky right now for two reasons:
1. We don’t know how deep the risk-off move will be.
2. Each currency has a different role.
The best setups come from pairing a very strong currency against a very weak one. That means understanding how each currency is likely to behave in this geopolitical backdrop.
Risk-Off (likely stronger at the open):
USD, CHF, JPY. A pair like USD/CHF can help show the severity of the move. If CHF is clearly outperforming USD, that signals a real flight to safety.
Risk-On (likely weaker at the open):
AUD and NZD are the two main risk-on currencies likely to bleed. I’ve already seen AUD/CHF quoted down 1.11% pre-market.
EUR, GBP, and CAD may also come under pressure as USD catches a bid.
With that in mind, avoid trading pairs that serve the same role.
CHF/JPY may stay flat because both are safe havens.
AUD/NZD may also stay flat because both are risk-on.
Cheers
- Alan
❤76🔥15🫡10