EURGBP Trade update: Closed for a small loss.
I'm all out of my 3 trades on EURGBP, with the price dipping back down into support, I've decided to close out of the position.
This is the first forex loss I've taken in several months. I was able to minimize the loss by keeping positions very small, and waiting for a downswing to close out. I was wrong in my bearish thesis, and now EURGBP looks like it may continue to be bullish.
Onto the next! - Nick
I'm all out of my 3 trades on EURGBP, with the price dipping back down into support, I've decided to close out of the position.
This is the first forex loss I've taken in several months. I was able to minimize the loss by keeping positions very small, and waiting for a downswing to close out. I was wrong in my bearish thesis, and now EURGBP looks like it may continue to be bullish.
Onto the next! - Nick
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What’s the main goal of raising interest rates?
What’s the main goal of raising interest rates?
Anonymous Quiz
12%
Increase borrowing
78%
Slow inflation
5%
Lower unemployment
4%
Boost stock prices
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EUR/USD – Watching the Lower High
EUR/USD slipped briefly today, forming what could turn into a lower high. For the Euro to reclaim upside momentum, price would need to break and hold above this level. On the higher time frames, support sits around 1.15000 and resistance near 1.18000. For now, moves have been largely dictated by shifts in U.S. Dollar strength.
Fundamentally, U.S. PPI surprised to the upside at 0.9% versus the 0.2% forecast — a hot reading that could trim rate cut expectations from three to two this year. Tomorrow’s Retail Sales report will be another key piece of the puzzle for traders.
Over in the Eurozone, French CPI came in on target, but Industrial Production missed expectations on both a monthly and yearly basis, showing signs of softer activity.
Markets are also eyeing tomorrow's meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders in Alaska. Any progress toward ending the war in Ukraine could directly impact the Euro, given the region’s economic proximity and exposure to the conflict.
EUR/USD slipped briefly today, forming what could turn into a lower high. For the Euro to reclaim upside momentum, price would need to break and hold above this level. On the higher time frames, support sits around 1.15000 and resistance near 1.18000. For now, moves have been largely dictated by shifts in U.S. Dollar strength.
Fundamentally, U.S. PPI surprised to the upside at 0.9% versus the 0.2% forecast — a hot reading that could trim rate cut expectations from three to two this year. Tomorrow’s Retail Sales report will be another key piece of the puzzle for traders.
Over in the Eurozone, French CPI came in on target, but Industrial Production missed expectations on both a monthly and yearly basis, showing signs of softer activity.
Markets are also eyeing tomorrow's meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders in Alaska. Any progress toward ending the war in Ukraine could directly impact the Euro, given the region’s economic proximity and exposure to the conflict.
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USD/JPY – Eyes on Rate Differentials
USD/JPY pushed higher this morning after a stronger-than-expected U.S. PPI print, bouncing cleanly off the 146.00 support zone. The next upside target sits near 149.00, though the broader move higher could face headwinds as interest rate policy shifts come into focus.
Traders are debating two main questions:
- Will the Fed deliver 2 or 3 cuts this year?
- Could the next cut be a larger, “jumbo” cut?
For now, the data tilts toward a gradual easing path, with room for the Fed to hold rates slightly longer. That said, cuts are widely seen as inevitable.
On the other side, the BoJ continues to signal a desire to lift rates, though the timing remains uncertain. If both the Fed and BoJ move rates in opposite directions, the interest rate gap will narrow, potentially capping USD/JPY’s upside over the longer term.
A smaller U.S.-Japan rate differential would weaken the appeal of the carry trade — a strategy that has fueled yen selling for years.
USD/JPY pushed higher this morning after a stronger-than-expected U.S. PPI print, bouncing cleanly off the 146.00 support zone. The next upside target sits near 149.00, though the broader move higher could face headwinds as interest rate policy shifts come into focus.
Traders are debating two main questions:
- Will the Fed deliver 2 or 3 cuts this year?
- Could the next cut be a larger, “jumbo” cut?
For now, the data tilts toward a gradual easing path, with room for the Fed to hold rates slightly longer. That said, cuts are widely seen as inevitable.
On the other side, the BoJ continues to signal a desire to lift rates, though the timing remains uncertain. If both the Fed and BoJ move rates in opposite directions, the interest rate gap will narrow, potentially capping USD/JPY’s upside over the longer term.
A smaller U.S.-Japan rate differential would weaken the appeal of the carry trade — a strategy that has fueled yen selling for years.
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EdgeFinder's Eco Surprise Meter
The latest Eco Surprise Meter shows some notable shifts in relative currency strength based on recent economic data.
Key Observations:
- NZD remains the strongest performer with a 75% score, followed closely by GBP at 71%, CAD at 67%, and JPY at 63%. These currencies have seen a steady run of better-than-expected economic releases.
- EUR dipped slightly to 50%, reflecting some softer economic surprises compared to previous readings.
USD remains steady at 50%, right at the midpoint, suggesting a balanced mix of beats and misses in recent U.S. data. This comes as rate cut expectations remain in focus, with markets heavily pricing in a 25 bps cut from the Federal Reserve next month.
Stronger surprise scores in NZD, GBP, CAD, and JPY could continue to support these currencies if the data momentum holds. For the USD, upcoming releases—especially Retail Sales—could tip the balance in either direction, influencing rate cut timing and magnitude.
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The latest Eco Surprise Meter shows some notable shifts in relative currency strength based on recent economic data.
Key Observations:
- NZD remains the strongest performer with a 75% score, followed closely by GBP at 71%, CAD at 67%, and JPY at 63%. These currencies have seen a steady run of better-than-expected economic releases.
- EUR dipped slightly to 50%, reflecting some softer economic surprises compared to previous readings.
USD remains steady at 50%, right at the midpoint, suggesting a balanced mix of beats and misses in recent U.S. data. This comes as rate cut expectations remain in focus, with markets heavily pricing in a 25 bps cut from the Federal Reserve next month.
Stronger surprise scores in NZD, GBP, CAD, and JPY could continue to support these currencies if the data momentum holds. For the USD, upcoming releases—especially Retail Sales—could tip the balance in either direction, influencing rate cut timing and magnitude.
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The Put-Call ratio chart is signaling something.
People are frenzy buying calls like crazy...
To me, this suggests a contrarian move to the downside could take place sooner or later, as investors tend to be more easily disappointed when expectations are so high.
With poor jobs numbers and a spike in inflation, I am very hesitant to buy any stocks or go long indices.
Very much on the sidelines at this time. Waiting for dips and better prices.
- Nick
People are frenzy buying calls like crazy...
To me, this suggests a contrarian move to the downside could take place sooner or later, as investors tend to be more easily disappointed when expectations are so high.
With poor jobs numbers and a spike in inflation, I am very hesitant to buy any stocks or go long indices.
Very much on the sidelines at this time. Waiting for dips and better prices.
- Nick
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why might central banks hesitate to cut rates during high inflation?
Why might central banks hesitate to cut rates during high inflation?
Anonymous Quiz
15%
It could weaken jobs
4%
It could hurt exports
72%
It could fuel more inflation
10%
It could lower debt costs
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USD/JPY - A shift coming?
USD/JPY bounced firmly off 146.00 support and remains in a 146–149 range. A break and hold above 149.00 could open the door to 150.50–151.00, while a drop below 146.00 may bring 144.80 and then 142.35 into focus. Until a decisive breakout, conditions remain rangebound.
Fundamentally, Japan’s Q2 GDP came in stronger than expected, with exports holding steady despite new U.S. tariffs—adding bullish momentum for the yen. In the U.S., markets now price a 95% chance of a 25 bp Fed cut in September, though the possibility of a larger move still lingers. If the Fed begins easing while the BoJ moves closer to tightening, the rate differential could narrow, favoring a weaker USD/JPY.
Retail Sales in the U.S. missed expectations by 0.1%, though prior figures were revised higher from 0.6% to 0.9%. The key upcoming event is the Russia–U.S. meeting in Alaska, where discussions on a Ukraine ceasefire could influence broader market sentiment.
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USD/JPY bounced firmly off 146.00 support and remains in a 146–149 range. A break and hold above 149.00 could open the door to 150.50–151.00, while a drop below 146.00 may bring 144.80 and then 142.35 into focus. Until a decisive breakout, conditions remain rangebound.
Fundamentally, Japan’s Q2 GDP came in stronger than expected, with exports holding steady despite new U.S. tariffs—adding bullish momentum for the yen. In the U.S., markets now price a 95% chance of a 25 bp Fed cut in September, though the possibility of a larger move still lingers. If the Fed begins easing while the BoJ moves closer to tightening, the rate differential could narrow, favoring a weaker USD/JPY.
Retail Sales in the U.S. missed expectations by 0.1%, though prior figures were revised higher from 0.6% to 0.9%. The key upcoming event is the Russia–U.S. meeting in Alaska, where discussions on a Ukraine ceasefire could influence broader market sentiment.
🚀Check out our top rated brokers!
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S&P 500 – Record Territory
The S&P500 is near all-time highs, with the index finding strong footing above 5,600 support. A clean break above 5,650 could open the door to 5,700+. If sellers step in, deep pullback zones could be attractive.
Fundamentally, upbeat 0.5% retail sales growth in July — alongside a stronger control group reading — reinforced confidence in US consumer strength. Import prices jumped unexpectedly, keeping inflation risk top of mind.
Corporate earnings helped shape the tone with big companies staying strong despite the rate environment. Big companies are not as prone to high rates as they don't need to borrow much to stay afloat.
The big macro watch remains President Trump’s meeting with Russia’s Putin in Alaska. Any progress on a Ukraine ceasefire could add another layer of optimism to equities.
The S&P500 is near all-time highs, with the index finding strong footing above 5,600 support. A clean break above 5,650 could open the door to 5,700+. If sellers step in, deep pullback zones could be attractive.
Fundamentally, upbeat 0.5% retail sales growth in July — alongside a stronger control group reading — reinforced confidence in US consumer strength. Import prices jumped unexpectedly, keeping inflation risk top of mind.
Corporate earnings helped shape the tone with big companies staying strong despite the rate environment. Big companies are not as prone to high rates as they don't need to borrow much to stay afloat.
The big macro watch remains President Trump’s meeting with Russia’s Putin in Alaska. Any progress on a Ukraine ceasefire could add another layer of optimism to equities.
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EdgeFinder's Retail Sentiment
Retail positioning in the S&P 500 is heavily skewed to the long side, with over 60% of traders net-long. This mirrors what we’re seeing in the options market, where the Put-Call ratio is tilted strongly toward calls — signaling widespread bullishness and optimism.
While strong sentiment can drive momentum, extreme optimism can also create a vulnerability. When positioning is lopsided and expectations are sky-high, one negative catalyst or disappointing headline can spark outsized downside moves as traders rush to unwind positions.
Key takeaway: The crowd is convinced the trend will continue higher — but the risk is that markets rarely move in a straight line. In environments like this, surprises can cut deeper.
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Retail positioning in the S&P 500 is heavily skewed to the long side, with over 60% of traders net-long. This mirrors what we’re seeing in the options market, where the Put-Call ratio is tilted strongly toward calls — signaling widespread bullishness and optimism.
While strong sentiment can drive momentum, extreme optimism can also create a vulnerability. When positioning is lopsided and expectations are sky-high, one negative catalyst or disappointing headline can spark outsized downside moves as traders rush to unwind positions.
Key takeaway: The crowd is convinced the trend will continue higher — but the risk is that markets rarely move in a straight line. In environments like this, surprises can cut deeper.
🎁Get 10% off NOW with code TGVIP
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Thanks to everyone who joined our giveaway. If you did not win, we've got something special for you!
We're currently offering a 30 day trial of the tool, allowing you to try it out before committing the full price.
Apply for a trial here: https://form.jotform.com/233167835217055
🔥10👏5❤4
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does the unemployment rate measure?
What does the unemployment rate measure?
Anonymous Quiz
11%
Total job openings
3%
Wage growth rate
3%
GDP per capita
83%
% of labor force without jobs
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