🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What’s the Feds primary tool to control inflation?
What’s the Feds primary tool to control inflation?
Anonymous Quiz
3%
Tax policy
91%
Interest rates
2%
Government spending
4%
Money printing
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NZD/USD – Pullback or Recovery?
NZD/USD has bounced the last two days, clawing back some losses from last week. The pair found support at 0.58000, but now traders are watching closely — is this a true recovery or just a pullback before another leg lower?
Gains may be limited by soft economic data out of New Zealand. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2% in Q2 — the highest in nearly five years. While slightly better than the expected 5.3%, it still reinforces a weak labor market.
Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a 5bps cut at the next RBNZ meeting, with further easing likely into early next year.
Meanwhile, US data has also weakened, especially around jobs. Traders are now betting on a September rate cut from the Fed — which could play a key role in where NZD/USD heads next.
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NZD/USD has bounced the last two days, clawing back some losses from last week. The pair found support at 0.58000, but now traders are watching closely — is this a true recovery or just a pullback before another leg lower?
Gains may be limited by soft economic data out of New Zealand. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2% in Q2 — the highest in nearly five years. While slightly better than the expected 5.3%, it still reinforces a weak labor market.
Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a 5bps cut at the next RBNZ meeting, with further easing likely into early next year.
Meanwhile, US data has also weakened, especially around jobs. Traders are now betting on a September rate cut from the Fed — which could play a key role in where NZD/USD heads next.
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USOIL – Watching Supply Dynamics
USOIL climbed above $65 today, reacting to an established supply zone—driven by supply disruption concerns and bullish inventory data.
Investors are weighing potential shifts in global supply as India considers cutting Russian oil imports in response to U.S. tariff threats. President Trump warned of higher tariffs on Indian goods within 24 hours and suggested that falling energy prices could pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, API data showed U.S. crude stockpiles dropped by 4.2 million barrels last week—beating expectations of a 1.8 million-barrel draw—signaling stronger-than-expected demand.
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USOIL climbed above $65 today, reacting to an established supply zone—driven by supply disruption concerns and bullish inventory data.
Investors are weighing potential shifts in global supply as India considers cutting Russian oil imports in response to U.S. tariff threats. President Trump warned of higher tariffs on Indian goods within 24 hours and suggested that falling energy prices could pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, API data showed U.S. crude stockpiles dropped by 4.2 million barrels last week—beating expectations of a 1.8 million-barrel draw—signaling stronger-than-expected demand.
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NZD Economic Heatmap
New Zealand’s Economic Heatmap reflects softening conditions. The NZD strength score has declined from 88% to 75%, signaling growing cracks in the fundamental picture.
Earlier this week, New Zealand’s unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2% — the highest in nearly five years. While slightly better than forecasts, it reinforces expectations for further easing from the RBNZ. Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in August, with the possibility of more to come.
All eyes are on whether recent strength in NZD pairs is a true recovery or just a pullback in a broader downtrend. Weak economic data could continue to weigh on the Kiwi moving forward.
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New Zealand’s Economic Heatmap reflects softening conditions. The NZD strength score has declined from 88% to 75%, signaling growing cracks in the fundamental picture.
Earlier this week, New Zealand’s unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2% — the highest in nearly five years. While slightly better than forecasts, it reinforces expectations for further easing from the RBNZ. Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in August, with the possibility of more to come.
All eyes are on whether recent strength in NZD pairs is a true recovery or just a pullback in a broader downtrend. Weak economic data could continue to weigh on the Kiwi moving forward.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why do rising oil prices often push inflation higher?
Why do rising oil prices often push inflation higher?
Anonymous Quiz
86%
Higher transport & production costs
10%
Boost consumer demand
2%
Slow wage growth
2%
Increase unemployment
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GBP/USD – Neckline Retest
GBP/USD broke down from a head & shoulders topping pattern last week, falling to support at 1.32000. Now, price has retraced back to the neckline — a key resistance level that also lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The question now is whether this zone holds or gives way to further upside.
Fundamentally, the Bank of England delivered a widely expected 25 basis-point rate cut to 4.00%. However, the vote was split — five members voted for the cut, while four preferred to hold. Notably, one member who initially backed a 50 basis-point cut shifted to 25bps in a second-round vote.
The tight vote and cautious tone suggest the BOE isn’t rushing into a full easing cycle. Forward guidance still points to a "gradual and careful" approach, which could temper expectations for aggressive cuts going forward.
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GBP/USD broke down from a head & shoulders topping pattern last week, falling to support at 1.32000. Now, price has retraced back to the neckline — a key resistance level that also lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The question now is whether this zone holds or gives way to further upside.
Fundamentally, the Bank of England delivered a widely expected 25 basis-point rate cut to 4.00%. However, the vote was split — five members voted for the cut, while four preferred to hold. Notably, one member who initially backed a 50 basis-point cut shifted to 25bps in a second-round vote.
The tight vote and cautious tone suggest the BOE isn’t rushing into a full easing cycle. Forward guidance still points to a "gradual and careful" approach, which could temper expectations for aggressive cuts going forward.
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USD/CHF – Tariff Pressure & Rate Cut Expectations
USD/CHF is holding support around 0.80500 as markets digest the impact of steep U.S. tariffs and the broader outlook for interest rates.
Fundamentally, a 39% tariff on Swiss exports—one of the highest globally—formally took effect this week. Despite last-minute talks, the measure is now in place, affecting roughly 60% of Swiss exports to the U.S. Key industries like pharmaceuticals, watches, machinery, and chocolate are expected to feel the impact.
On the domestic front, Swiss inflation ticked up slightly to 0.2% year-over-year in July—above the 0.1% forecast but still near flat.
With inflation remaining subdued and global risks rising, the Swiss National Bank could stay on track to ease further, possibly pushing rates deeper into negative territory.
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USD/CHF is holding support around 0.80500 as markets digest the impact of steep U.S. tariffs and the broader outlook for interest rates.
Fundamentally, a 39% tariff on Swiss exports—one of the highest globally—formally took effect this week. Despite last-minute talks, the measure is now in place, affecting roughly 60% of Swiss exports to the U.S. Key industries like pharmaceuticals, watches, machinery, and chocolate are expected to feel the impact.
On the domestic front, Swiss inflation ticked up slightly to 0.2% year-over-year in July—above the 0.1% forecast but still near flat.
With inflation remaining subdued and global risks rising, the Swiss National Bank could stay on track to ease further, possibly pushing rates deeper into negative territory.
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EdgeFinder's FX Scanner - GBP/USD
The Bank of England delivered a 25 basis point rate cut but the decision wasn’t unanimous—highlighting a growing divide among policymakers. This mixed stance reflects rising uncertainty about the BoE’s forward path.
Looking ahead, upcoming UK data could be key in shaping future decisions. If economic releases lean weak, the case for further easing strengthens. On the flip side, any upside surprises could shift the tone toward caution.
Pay close attention to forward guidance and the data that could influence it.
Stay on top of real-time shifts in market fundamentals, sentiment, and institutional positioning—all in one place, with EdgeFinder.
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The Bank of England delivered a 25 basis point rate cut but the decision wasn’t unanimous—highlighting a growing divide among policymakers. This mixed stance reflects rising uncertainty about the BoE’s forward path.
Looking ahead, upcoming UK data could be key in shaping future decisions. If economic releases lean weak, the case for further easing strengthens. On the flip side, any upside surprises could shift the tone toward caution.
Pay close attention to forward guidance and the data that could influence it.
Stay on top of real-time shifts in market fundamentals, sentiment, and institutional positioning—all in one place, with EdgeFinder.
Data From the EdgeFinder
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does a widening trade deficit mean?
What does a widening trade deficit mean?
Anonymous Quiz
15%
Stronger GDP
14%
Declining inflation
17%
Falling employment
54%
More imports and exports
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USD/CAD – Watching the Retest
USD/CAD broke above resistance but is still hovering near the 50% retracement level—giving bulls a chance to confirm direction. A break and hold above 1.38000 could give room to the upside. However holding below resistance could make it difficult for bulls to take charge.
This morning, the Canadian dollar slipped after data showed the economy unexpectedly lost 40,800 jobs in July. The unemployment rate held at 6.9%, slightly better than expectations for a rise to 7.0%.
Still, the weak employment print adds pressure on the Bank of Canada, potentially opening the door for further rate cuts in the coming months.
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USD/CAD broke above resistance but is still hovering near the 50% retracement level—giving bulls a chance to confirm direction. A break and hold above 1.38000 could give room to the upside. However holding below resistance could make it difficult for bulls to take charge.
This morning, the Canadian dollar slipped after data showed the economy unexpectedly lost 40,800 jobs in July. The unemployment rate held at 6.9%, slightly better than expectations for a rise to 7.0%.
Still, the weak employment print adds pressure on the Bank of Canada, potentially opening the door for further rate cuts in the coming months.
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USD/CHF – Holding the Line
USD/CHF is holding firm at the 0.80500 support level. A break and retest above could suggest further upside, while a break and retest below might open the door to continued dollar weakness.
It’s been a quiet session in FX, with the dollar attempting to stabilize after last week’s losses.
On the Swiss side, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars will now fall under a customs code subject to tariffs—contrary to industry expectations.
This move could weigh on Switzerland, the world’s largest gold-refining hub, as gold is one of its top exports to the U.S.
USD/CHF is holding firm at the 0.80500 support level. A break and retest above could suggest further upside, while a break and retest below might open the door to continued dollar weakness.
It’s been a quiet session in FX, with the dollar attempting to stabilize after last week’s losses.
On the Swiss side, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars will now fall under a customs code subject to tariffs—contrary to industry expectations.
This move could weigh on Switzerland, the world’s largest gold-refining hub, as gold is one of its top exports to the U.S.
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Canada's Economic Heatmap
Canada’s latest labor report came in soft, adding weight to expectations of further easing from the Bank of Canada.
- July employment fell by 40,800 jobs — a surprise contraction that contrasts with expectations for a modest increase.
- The unemployment rate remained elevated at 6.9%, slightly better than the 7.0% forecast, but still at multi-month highs.
Together, these figures highlight a cooling labor market — a key concern for policymakers. Wage growth and participation remain stagnant, and the jobs miss reinforces the case that the economy is struggling to gain momentum post-hikes.
With inflation relatively under control, the Bank of Canada may be more comfortable pulling the trigger on additional rate cuts in the coming months. Markets are already pricing in a strong probability of easing, and upcoming data will be crucial in confirming that path.
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Canada’s latest labor report came in soft, adding weight to expectations of further easing from the Bank of Canada.
- July employment fell by 40,800 jobs — a surprise contraction that contrasts with expectations for a modest increase.
- The unemployment rate remained elevated at 6.9%, slightly better than the 7.0% forecast, but still at multi-month highs.
Together, these figures highlight a cooling labor market — a key concern for policymakers. Wage growth and participation remain stagnant, and the jobs miss reinforces the case that the economy is struggling to gain momentum post-hikes.
With inflation relatively under control, the Bank of Canada may be more comfortable pulling the trigger on additional rate cuts in the coming months. Markets are already pricing in a strong probability of easing, and upcoming data will be crucial in confirming that path.
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🎁Get 10% off NOW with code TGVIP
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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
USD/CHF – Holding the Line USD/CHF is holding firm at the 0.80500 support level. A break and retest above could suggest further upside, while a break and retest below might open the door to continued dollar weakness. It’s been a quiet session in FX, with…
The White House claims misinformation on Gold tariffs. More details to come in the future.
For now... Gold experiences a slight relief
For now... Gold experiences a slight relief
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