Morning Bites (part 1)
🥉Global mined copper production increased 5.6% YoY in July, vs. the revised gain of 3.1% YoY in June, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure was also up 3.4% YoY on a 7mo25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3.3% YoY) and the DRC (+11.8% YoY). However, positive production dynamics in further months will be limited, in our view, given the recent fatal accident at the El Tentiente mine (~2.0% of global supply) and huge Grasberg mine (~3.5% of global supply)
Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, being up 5.9% YoY in 7mo25, mainly driven by China (+8.9% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production increased 5.6% YoY in July, vs. the revised gain of 3.1% YoY in June, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure was also up 3.4% YoY on a 7mo25 basis, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3.3% YoY) and the DRC (+11.8% YoY). However, positive production dynamics in further months will be limited, in our view, given the recent fatal accident at the El Tentiente mine (~2.0% of global supply) and huge Grasberg mine (~3.5% of global supply)
Apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow, being up 5.9% YoY in 7mo25, mainly driven by China (+8.9% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites (part 3)
⛏️ Freeport McMoran expects ~35% lower copper output at Grasberg in 2026, compared with its previous estimates, amid the recent fatal accident, the company reports. To recap, Freeport’s previous production guidance for the site in 2026 was ~770kt of Cu. Thus, the 35% decline implies additional ~1% deficit to the market balance in 2026
Grasberg is one of the world’s largest copper and gold mines, accounting for >3% of global mined Cu output. Even with a gradual restart, the anticipated supply drop will additionally affect already tight global Cu supply and support prices, which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in 1H26 in our base-case scenario
#copper
⛏️ Freeport McMoran expects ~35% lower copper output at Grasberg in 2026, compared with its previous estimates, amid the recent fatal accident, the company reports. To recap, Freeport’s previous production guidance for the site in 2026 was ~770kt of Cu. Thus, the 35% decline implies additional ~1% deficit to the market balance in 2026
Grasberg is one of the world’s largest copper and gold mines, accounting for >3% of global mined Cu output. Even with a gradual restart, the anticipated supply drop will additionally affect already tight global Cu supply and support prices, which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in 1H26 in our base-case scenario
#copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 23% YoY in August, accelerating from the 5% YoY expansion in July, per NBS data. The figure was also up 48% YoY in 8mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 26% YoY in August (vs. the -1% YoY in July), being up 14% YoY on 8mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 23% YoY in August, accelerating from the 5% YoY expansion in July, per NBS data. The figure was also up 48% YoY in 8mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure jumped 26% YoY in August (vs. the -1% YoY in July), being up 14% YoY on 8mo25 basis
Although State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees only a 10% YoY capex increase in 2025, the actual figure might be higher, in our view: historically, the company has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 55% YoY in August, vs. the 57% YoY decline in July, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 61% YoY in 8mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China surged 106% YoY in August, vs. the 116% YoY gain in July (and was up 48% YoY on 8mo25 basis)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 55% YoY in August, vs. the 57% YoY decline in July, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 61% YoY in 8mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China surged 106% YoY in August, vs. the 116% YoY gain in July (and was up 48% YoY on 8mo25 basis)
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
Morning Bites
⛏️ Teck Resources has lowered its 2025-26 copper production guidance, amid operational issues at the Quebrada Blanca (QB2) mine, per a company statement. Specifically, the target was reviewed due to tailings management constraints, lower than expected ore grades and additional maintenance works. Now Teck plans to produce 415-465 kt of Cu in 2025 (vs. 490-565 kt previously) and 455-530 kt in 2026 (vs. 550-620 kt), affecting ~0.5% of global supply
Given recent accidents and production disruptions at other major mines — Grasberg (3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (2%) and Kakula (1.5%) — we maintain our view that a “perfect storm” is forming in the global copper market. Therefore, we remain bullish on copper and expect prices to reach USD 12,000/t in 1H26 in our base case scenario
#copper
⛏️ Teck Resources has lowered its 2025-26 copper production guidance, amid operational issues at the Quebrada Blanca (QB2) mine, per a company statement. Specifically, the target was reviewed due to tailings management constraints, lower than expected ore grades and additional maintenance works. Now Teck plans to produce 415-465 kt of Cu in 2025 (vs. 490-565 kt previously) and 455-530 kt in 2026 (vs. 550-620 kt), affecting ~0.5% of global supply
Given recent accidents and production disruptions at other major mines — Grasberg (3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (2%) and Kakula (1.5%) — we maintain our view that a “perfect storm” is forming in the global copper market. Therefore, we remain bullish on copper and expect prices to reach USD 12,000/t in 1H26 in our base case scenario
#copper
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Morning Bites (part 1)
🥉Global mined copper production fell 1.2% YoY in August, vs. the significantly revised gain of 1.9% YoY (previously +7.2% YoY) in July, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure, however, was still up 2.2% YoY on an 8mo25 basis, mainly driven by the growth in Peru (+2.6% YoY) and the DRC (+8% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might continue in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow; they were up 6% YoY in 8mo25, mainly driven by China (+9% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production fell 1.2% YoY in August, vs. the significantly revised gain of 1.9% YoY (previously +7.2% YoY) in July, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure, however, was still up 2.2% YoY on an 8mo25 basis, mainly driven by the growth in Peru (+2.6% YoY) and the DRC (+8% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might continue in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow; they were up 6% YoY in 8mo25, mainly driven by China (+9% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
📉China’s output of aluminium products inched down 2% YoY to 5.9mnt in September, vs. the 5% YoY decline in August. In our view, the rapid expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among key factors, bolstering aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 11% YoY in September to 2.2mnt, vs. the +15% YoY in August. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in the coming quarters). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
📉China’s output of aluminium products inched down 2% YoY to 5.9mnt in September, vs. the 5% YoY decline in August. In our view, the rapid expansion of the grid and new energy sector in China (~60% of global consumption), combined with the country’s Al output cap, remain among key factors, bolstering aluminium market fundamentals in the medium term
🥉China's output of copper products jumped 11% YoY in September to 2.2mnt, vs. the +15% YoY in August. We reiterate our view that surging grid investments in China, solid demand trends globally and the monetary policy easing cycle in key economies (the US/EU and China) are likely to add further support to the red metal’s price (which we expect to reach USD 12,000/t in the coming quarters). China represents ~55% of global Cu demand
#aluminium #copper
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 29% YoY in September, accelerating from the +23% YoY in August, per NBS data. The figure was also up 45% YoY in 9mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure declined 11% YoY in September (from the high base), reversing from the +26% YoY in August, but was still 10% higher YoY on a 9mo25 basis
We recap, that State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees a 10% YoY CapEx increase in 2025 (in line with 9mo25 dynamics); however, historically, State Grid has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investment (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳 The output of power generation equipment in China increased 29% YoY in September, accelerating from the +23% YoY in August, per NBS data. The figure was also up 45% YoY in 9mo25
💴 Investment in China’s grid infrastructure declined 11% YoY in September (from the high base), reversing from the +26% YoY in August, but was still 10% higher YoY on a 9mo25 basis
We recap, that State Grid (which controls >80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity) sees a 10% YoY CapEx increase in 2025 (in line with 9mo25 dynamics); however, historically, State Grid has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investment (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 55% YoY in September, in line with August's dynamics, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 46% YoY in 9mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China declined 34% YoY in September (mainly due to the high base effect from 2024), vs. the 106% YoY gain in August. The local PV cells output was also up 29% YoY on 9mo25 basis
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
🥈Solar panel installations in China dropped a further 55% YoY in September, in line with August's dynamics, per NEA data, as some key subsidies for local solar projects expired in early-June, and investment in grid infrastructure is failing to keep pace with the surging installations of renewable energy capacity in the last several years. However, the figure was still up 46% YoY in 9mo25
Meanwhile, overall photovoltaic cell output in China declined 34% YoY in September (mainly due to the high base effect from 2024), vs. the 106% YoY gain in August. The local PV cells output was also up 29% YoY on 9mo25 basis
Given the solid demand for renewable energy in China, we maintain our positive view on silver, copper and aluminium, which are the key beneficiary metals of the proposed global transition to clean energy in 2024-30
#silver #copper #aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏️ Freeport-McMoRan has released an updated outlook for its Grasberg mine, after a major underground accident in September 2025. Management now sees 2026 copper output ~90kt below the initial estimate, which is likely to add ~0.3% to the expected global Cu market deficit next year (~3% of annual demand), on our numbers. In the longer term, Freeport also sees its production 40–50ktpa lower than we previously anticipated in 2027-29
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
⛏️ Freeport-McMoRan has released an updated outlook for its Grasberg mine, after a major underground accident in September 2025. Management now sees 2026 copper output ~90kt below the initial estimate, which is likely to add ~0.3% to the expected global Cu market deficit next year (~3% of annual demand), on our numbers. In the longer term, Freeport also sees its production 40–50ktpa lower than we previously anticipated in 2027-29
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper