Morning Bites (part 2)
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 77t of gold net in December, vs. the revised +41t net seen in November, according to World Gold Council data. The reported inflows were especially strong in North America (+46t), while Asian and European funds also accumulated 17t and 12t, respectively. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have added 943t net (~13% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US, and China, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to concerns about a weaker US dollar and independence of the US Fed
#ETF #gold
📈Gold-backed ETFs purchased 77t of gold net in December, vs. the revised +41t net seen in November, according to World Gold Council data. The reported inflows were especially strong in North America (+46t), while Asian and European funds also accumulated 17t and 12t, respectively. Overall, since May 2024, global funds have added 943t net (~13% of world physical gold demand, in annualised terms), following the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US, and China, as well as persisting geopolitical unrest
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to concerns about a weaker US dollar and independence of the US Fed
#ETF #gold
Morning Bites (part 3)
🥈The total silver holdings of global ETFs were up 21% YoY in December to 864mnoz, according to fund data. Meanwhile, in 2025 their net silver purchases jumped 9.1x YoY to 148mnoz (13% of total global Ag demand)
Despite the solid demand for renewable energy in China, which supports a deep physical market deficit (15-18% of global Ag consumption in 2025-26F, on our numbers), current silver prices are already above the medium-term levels we view as fundamentally reasonable (~USD 65/oz), mainly due to abnormal speculative activity, we believe
#silver
🥈The total silver holdings of global ETFs were up 21% YoY in December to 864mnoz, according to fund data. Meanwhile, in 2025 their net silver purchases jumped 9.1x YoY to 148mnoz (13% of total global Ag demand)
Despite the solid demand for renewable energy in China, which supports a deep physical market deficit (15-18% of global Ag consumption in 2025-26F, on our numbers), current silver prices are already above the medium-term levels we view as fundamentally reasonable (~USD 65/oz), mainly due to abnormal speculative activity, we believe
#silver
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for December (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 18% YoY in December, vs. the +8% YoY in November. The exports hit a new record monthly high, likely driven by Beijing's announcement of an export licence requirement for steel shipments from 2026. We remind readers that China aims to further cut “excessive” steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 11mo25) and strictly prohibits new capacity additions. In our view, these measures could help to normalise high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 8% YoY in 2025) and support global steel prices in 2026
🪨China’s coal imports rose 12% YoY in December, reversing from the -20% YoY in November. Meanwhile, the volumes were down 10% YoY to 490mnt in 2025. Per Reuters, shipments rebounded in December after supply constraints from major exporters in November, while the recent rise in domestic prices also pushed Chinese buyers to look for less-expensive imported coal
#coal #steel
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 18% YoY in December, vs. the +8% YoY in November. The exports hit a new record monthly high, likely driven by Beijing's announcement of an export licence requirement for steel shipments from 2026. We remind readers that China aims to further cut “excessive” steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 11mo25) and strictly prohibits new capacity additions. In our view, these measures could help to normalise high Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 8% YoY in 2025) and support global steel prices in 2026
🪨China’s coal imports rose 12% YoY in December, reversing from the -20% YoY in November. Meanwhile, the volumes were down 10% YoY to 490mnt in 2025. Per Reuters, shipments rebounded in December after supply constraints from major exporters in November, while the recent rise in domestic prices also pushed Chinese buyers to look for less-expensive imported coal
#coal #steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏦 Global central banks purchased net 45t of gold in November, vs. the revised +41t net in October, marking the 30th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports
Specifically, gold purchases in November were mainly recorded in Poland, Brazil and Uzbekistan (+12t, +11t and +10t, respectively), while the only notable seller was Jordan (-2t). We remind readers that official central bank purchases currently represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to concerns about a weaker US dollar and independence of the US Fed
#gold
🏦 Global central banks purchased net 45t of gold in November, vs. the revised +41t net in October, marking the 30th consecutive month of reserve accumulation, the World Gold Council reports
Specifically, gold purchases in November were mainly recorded in Poland, Brazil and Uzbekistan (+12t, +11t and +10t, respectively), while the only notable seller was Jordan (-2t). We remind readers that official central bank purchases currently represent only ~1/3 of real gold demand from government institutions, per WGC estimates
Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable long-term level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to concerns about a weaker US dollar and independence of the US Fed
#gold
Morning Bites
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched up 2% YoY in December, in-line with the dynamics seen in November. However, total sales remained below their pre-COVID level (-13% vs. December 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 18% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 23% and 13% weaker, respectively. UK and Spain figures were broadly in-line with 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely increased in low-single digits YoY last month, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany inched up 2% YoY in December, in-line with the dynamics seen in November. However, total sales remained below their pre-COVID level (-13% vs. December 2019). Specifically, in France, car sales were 18% below their 2019 level, while registrations in Italy and Germany were 23% and 13% weaker, respectively. UK and Spain figures were broadly in-line with 2019 levels
Given these five countries represented more than 70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe in 2024, the region’s car sales likely increased in low-single digits YoY last month, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 6% YoY in 4Q25, vs. the 12% YoY gain in 3Q25, per a company press-release. Richemont highlighted continuous strength in demand in its Watch & Jewellery segment
Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💍Richemont's Jewellery Maisons segment sales grew 6% YoY in 4Q25, vs. the 12% YoY gain in 3Q25, per a company press-release. Richemont highlighted continuous strength in demand in its Watch & Jewellery segment
Despite some improvement in the performance of retailers, we maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for global diamond market recovery, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇨🇳The State Grid of China plans to increase capex 40% in 2026-30 vs. the 2021-25 level, as part of the country’s efforts to expand its power network to keep pace with rising renewable energy capacity and electricity demand, Bloomberg reports, citing local media. Overall, the company sees some CNY 4tn (~USD 575bn) investment during the period, which is broadly in-line with our forecast
To recap, the State Grid corp. controls ~80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity and historically has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
🇨🇳The State Grid of China plans to increase capex 40% in 2026-30 vs. the 2021-25 level, as part of the country’s efforts to expand its power network to keep pace with rising renewable energy capacity and electricity demand, Bloomberg reports, citing local media. Overall, the company sees some CNY 4tn (~USD 575bn) investment during the period, which is broadly in-line with our forecast
To recap, the State Grid corp. controls ~80% of Chinese electricity transmission capacity and historically has often exceeded its investment guidance
On our numbers, the grid accounts for 10-15% of Al and Cu demand in China, so upbeat investments (due to the growing installations of renewable energy) are fundamentally supportive of demand for these base metals
#copper #aluminium
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season unfolds, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa and Freeport are set to release their 4Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are more conservative on Freeport’s results (than the consensus), while being slightly more positive on Alcoa's financials
We also await South African PGM production statistics for November this week
#reporting_season
As the reporting season unfolds, we commence a series of posts devoted to the forthcoming data releases. This week, among major M&M names, Alcoa and Freeport are set to release their 4Q25 earnings. On the EBITDA side, we are more conservative on Freeport’s results (than the consensus), while being slightly more positive on Alcoa's financials
We also await South African PGM production statistics for November this week
#reporting_season
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for December (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output declined 10% YoY in December, broadly in-line with the 11% YoY drop in November, per NBS data. Although local crude steel supply dropped 4% YoY in 2025, per official data, China's net steel exports were still up 8% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices. The recent production decreases were related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Given the ongoing crisis in the global steelmaking industry, Beijing might introduce additional supply control similar to the measures it imposed in 2016-17, we believe
🏢China's property sales decreased 17% YoY in December, after the -18% YoY in November; they were also 56% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 19% YoY in December (-67% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 39% YoY last month (-61% vs. 2021), while property completions were down 18% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output declined 10% YoY in December, broadly in-line with the 11% YoY drop in November, per NBS data. Although local crude steel supply dropped 4% YoY in 2025, per official data, China's net steel exports were still up 8% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices. The recent production decreases were related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Given the ongoing crisis in the global steelmaking industry, Beijing might introduce additional supply control similar to the measures it imposed in 2016-17, we believe
🏢China's property sales decreased 17% YoY in December, after the -18% YoY in November; they were also 56% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 19% YoY in December (-67% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 39% YoY last month (-61% vs. 2021), while property completions were down 18% YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 4% YoY in November, vs. the +9% YoY seen in October, per government data. According to Rapaport, the performance was supported by high gold prices and strong inbound tourism (the number of Mainland visitors was up 19% YoY in November)
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical/trading concerns
#diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales gained 4% YoY in November, vs. the +9% YoY seen in October, per government data. According to Rapaport, the performance was supported by high gold prices and strong inbound tourism (the number of Mainland visitors was up 19% YoY in November)
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as geopolitical/trading concerns
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎India’s rough diamond net imports rose 17% YoY in December, decelerating from the +73% YoY spike in November (mainly due to the low base). Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports fell 8% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports surged 50% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 10% of total trading in value terms
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given risks to supply discipline in 2026, as well as new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late-August 2025)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports rose 17% YoY in December, decelerating from the +73% YoY spike in November (mainly due to the low base). Meanwhile, polished diamond net exports fell 8% YoY. Synthetic rough diamond net imports surged 50% YoY. Lab-grown net rough imports accounted for 10% of total trading in value terms
We maintain our view that it might take time for the global diamond market to recover, given risks to supply discipline in 2026, as well as new trading disruptions (the US raised import tariffs on India’s goods to 50% from late-August 2025)
India accounts for ~95% of the world's polished stone supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎De Beers has cut prices for its >0.75ct rough diamonds, marking the first official revision since December 2024, Bloomberg reports. However, the exact scale of the reductions remains unclear, as the company adjusted its rules and assortments, making direct comparisons complicated
In our view, De Beers might have started shifting its previously non-public discounts into regular sales cycles. To recap, since early-2025, the miner has been selling diamonds to selected buyers at closed auctions, while prices at regular tenders remained up to 25% higher. This decision undermined market confidence and disrupted traditional price-over-volume strategy, we believe
We maintain a cautious view on the global diamond market and believe that the supply discipline will not start to recover until Anglo American completes the planned sale (or spin-off) of De Beers, which accounts for ~30% of global rough diamonds mined supply
#diamonds
💎De Beers has cut prices for its >0.75ct rough diamonds, marking the first official revision since December 2024, Bloomberg reports. However, the exact scale of the reductions remains unclear, as the company adjusted its rules and assortments, making direct comparisons complicated
In our view, De Beers might have started shifting its previously non-public discounts into regular sales cycles. To recap, since early-2025, the miner has been selling diamonds to selected buyers at closed auctions, while prices at regular tenders remained up to 25% higher. This decision undermined market confidence and disrupted traditional price-over-volume strategy, we believe
We maintain a cautious view on the global diamond market and believe that the supply discipline will not start to recover until Anglo American completes the planned sale (or spin-off) of De Beers, which accounts for ~30% of global rough diamonds mined supply
#diamonds
Morning Bites (part 3)
🚘US light vehicle sales inched down 1% YoY in December, vs. the decrease of 7% YoY seen in November. Total car sales were also 6% below their pre-Covid (December 2019) level
To recap, new US budget legislation eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, from the end of September 2025. In our view, this factor will further weigh on BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. Meanwhile, this would be simultaneously supportive for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
🚘US light vehicle sales inched down 1% YoY in December, vs. the decrease of 7% YoY seen in November. Total car sales were also 6% below their pre-Covid (December 2019) level
To recap, new US budget legislation eliminated USD 7,500 and USD 4,000 tax credits for buying new and used EVs, respectively, from the end of September 2025. In our view, this factor will further weigh on BEV sales in the US (~10% of global EV registrations in 2024), as was the case in Germany in early-2024. Meanwhile, this would be simultaneously supportive for PGM market fundamentals, in our view: the share of catalyst-containing cars in local sales will gradually increase, we believe
On our numbers, North America accounted for 24% and 15% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2024
#cars #PGMs
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 3% YoY in November, reversing from the 4% YoY growth in October, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was also down 6% YoY, vs. the broadly flat dynamics of October
Eskom, which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply, has said that it does not expect power cuts until March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur. We see this as a supportive factor for the future output of South African miners. However, in 11mo25, the country’s PGM production was still down ~4% YoY, which corresponded to some market participants’ estimates that local PGM supply would decrease to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output declined 3% YoY in November, reversing from the 4% YoY growth in October, per official data. Meanwhile, local gold production was also down 6% YoY, vs. the broadly flat dynamics of October
Eskom, which controls ~80% of South African electricity supply, has said that it does not expect power cuts until March 2026, unless any major breakdowns occur. We see this as a supportive factor for the future output of South African miners. However, in 11mo25, the country’s PGM production was still down ~4% YoY, which corresponded to some market participants’ estimates that local PGM supply would decrease to ~4.8mnoz in 2025 (vs. ~5.1mnoz last year) amid persisting operational headwinds
SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 0.5% YoY in December, in line with the dynamics seen November, according to International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 0.9% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,100/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 0.5% YoY in December, in line with the dynamics seen November, according to International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased 0.9% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,100/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data)
#aluminium