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Global Metals&Mining Research from Glush&Team. No investment advice, just numbers & charts!
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Morning Bites (part 3)

๐Ÿ“‰Gold-backed ETFs sold net 51t of gold in January, sharply accelerating from the revised -9t in December, the World Gold Council reports. This marked the 8th consecutive month of declines in holdings. Specifically, American and European funds have sold 36t and 18t respectively, with only minor positive inflow of 3t seen in Asia. Overall, since June 2023, global ETFs gold reserves shrank 301t (~10% of physical gold demand in 2023 in annualised terms): we reiterate our view that ETF sales remain one of the key factors pressuring gold prices. However, gold minersโ€™ rising cash costs, strong demand from global central banks and a potentially lower US Fed funds rate in 2024 is likely up bolster the precious metalโ€™s performance this year, we believe

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 1)

๐Ÿ“‰Gold-backed ETFs sold net 49t of gold in February, after the -51t seen in January, marking the ninth consecutive month of declines in holdings, the World Gold Council reports. Specifically, American and European funds have sold 37t and 15t, respectively, with only a minor positive inflow of 3t in Asia. Overall, since June 2023, global ETFs gold reserves shrank 350t (~10% of annualised physical gold demand in 2023). Although ETFs sales remain one of the key factors pressuring gold prices, potentially lower US Fed funds rate in 2024 and the growing cash costs for miners are likely to push the gold price higher this year, we believe

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 1)

๐Ÿ“‰Gold-backed ETFs sold net 14t of gold in March, following the -49t in February, the World Gold Council reports. This marked the 10th consecutive month of declines in holdings. Specifically, European funds outflow totalled 22t, while American funds returned to purchases, having raised 5t. Asian funds have also increased holdings (+3t). Overall, since June 2023, global ETFs gold reserves shrank 364t (~9% of physical gold demand in 2023 in annualised terms). Although the widely expected US Fed funds rate cut in 2024 might limit further ETFs gold sales, we believe that the precious metalโ€™s price has already exceeded its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,200-2,300 for 2024)

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)

๐Ÿ“‰Gold-backed ETFs reduced their holdings by 33t in April, accelerating from the revised -13t in March, the World Gold Council reports. This was the 11th consecutive month of declines. Specifically, the main sellers were European funds with a net outflow of 52t, which was partially offset by net purchases of 19t in Asia. Overall, in the last 11 months, global ETF holdings have shrank 397t (~9% of physical gold demand in 2023 in annualised terms)

Regarding the market fundamentals, we reiterate our view that the spot gold price has already exceeded its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,200-2,300/oz for 2024), driven by persistently strong demand from global central banks and market expectations of an upcoming US Fed funds rate cut in 2024

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 3)

๐Ÿ“ˆGold-backed ETFs saw inflows of 8t in May, after 11 months of consecutive net sales. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), last month's inflows were concentrated in Europe (+6t) and Asia (+5t); North American funds sold net 2t in May. In our view, gold at spot is still trading above its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,200-2,300/oz for 2024), driven by the persistently strong demand from global central banks and widely anticipated US Fed funds rate cut in 2024

We also remind readers that ECB (the European Central Bank) yesterday decided to lower its key rate to 3.75% (vs. 4.00% earlier), marking the first cut since 2019, which was in-line with market expectations

#ETF #gold 
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
โค1
Morning Bites (part 1)

๐Ÿ“ˆGold-backed ETFs again raised their gold holdings, up 18t in June, following the +8t in May. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), last month's inflows were concentrated in Europe (+18t) and Asia (+7t), while North American funds sold net 8t

ETFs' return to buying gold, after a long period of selling, creates additional fundamental support for the metal. We estimate that the gold price has exceeded its fundamentally reasonable level of USD 2,200-2,300/oz in 2024 following the persistently strong demand from global central banks and in light of a widely expected US Federal Reserve funds rate cut in 2024. However, gold has more upside risks, such as geopolitical tensions and the upcoming Fed fund rate cut

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)

๐Ÿ“ˆGold-backed ETFs accelerated net purchasing to 48t in July, following the +18t in June. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), the inflows were recorded across all the regions: North American funds raised 26t, European and Asian funds added 17t and 5t, respectively. As we have previously noted, the return of ETFs to gold buying, after a long period of net selling, creates additional support for the metal

We maintain our view that gold is trading above its fundamentally justified level for 2024, of USD ~2,300/oz, due to the persistently strong demand from global central banks and in light of the widely expected US Fed funds rate cut in September 2024. However, gold has more upside risks from here, amid an unfavorable geopolitical environment globally

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)

๐Ÿ“ˆGold-backed ETFs purchased 29t net in August, following the +48t in July. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), inflows were recorded across all regions: North American funds raised 17t, while European funds added 8t. As we have noted previously, the return of ETFs to gold buying, after a long period of net selling, creates additional positive momentum for the metal

We maintain our view that gold is still trading above its fundamentally reasonable level for 2024 (USD 2,300-2,400/oz) amid persistently strong demand from global central banks and the widely expected US Fed funds rate cut in September 2024. However, we see more upside risk in gold prices following geopolitical factors, as well as ETFsโ€™ return to gold buying

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
๐Ÿ‘1
Morning Bites (part 2)

๐Ÿ“ˆGold-backed ETFs purchased net 18t in September, following the +29t in August. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), inflows were recorded in North American and Asian funds, which raised 16t and 2t, respectively, while European funds sold some 2t of gold

As we have noted previously, the return of ETFs to gold buying since May, after 11 months of net selling, creates additional positive momentum for the precious metalโ€™s price

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)

๐Ÿ“ˆGold-backed ETFs purchased net 43t of gold in October, after the +18t in September. According to the World Gold Council, North American funds led global inflows last month (+31t), while Europe remained the only region with net outflows (-11t). Overall, since ETFsโ€™ return to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated net 164t, following the recently started monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China)

Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24 (~USD 2,400/oz), we see more upside risks in the precious metalโ€™s price, given the steady inflows into global ETFs and central banks, as well as geopolitical tensions globally

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)

๐Ÿ“‰ Gold-backed ETFs sold net 29t of gold in November, marking the first net sale since April, vs. +43t in October. According to the World Gold Council, European funds led the entire global outflows, with net sales of 26t

Although ETFsโ€™ sales could have been the main factor pressuring gold prices in November, inflows might pick up in the coming months given the recently started monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China), we believe. Global funds have accumulated net 135t since May (~5% of physical gold demand in 2023 in annualised terms)

#ETF #gold 
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites

๐Ÿ“ˆGold-backed ETFs purchased net 34t of gold in January, after the +4t in December. According to the World Gold Council, European funds led global inflows last month (+39t), while North America remained the only region with net outflows (-6t). Overall, since the return of ETFs to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated net 174t (~5% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the recently started monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China)

Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metalโ€™s price will remain elevated in 2025, given continuing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to ongoing geopolitical tensions

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)

๐Ÿ“ˆGold-backed ETFs purchased net 100t of gold in February, after the +34t in January, marking the greatest gain since purchasing 185t in March 2022. According to the World Gold Council data, inflows were recorded in every region, with the strongest accumulation seen in N. America (+72t). Overall, since the return of ETFs to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated net 274t (~7% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the recently started monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China)

Although, at spot, gold keeps trading above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metalโ€™s price will remain elevated in 2025, given continuing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to ongoing geopolitical tensions

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites

๐Ÿ“ˆGold-backed ETFs purchased 92t of gold net in March, after the +100t in February, according to World Gold Council data. Inflows were again recorded in every region, with the strongest accumulation in North America (+67t). Overall, since the return of ETFs to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated 366t net (~9% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) as well as geopolitical unrest

Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metalโ€™s price will remain elevated in 2025, given ongoing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to the global trade related concerns

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)

๐Ÿ“ˆGold-backed ETFs purchased 115t of gold net in April, after the +92t in March, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the Inflows were recorded in Asia (+70t), and North America (+44t). Overall, since the return of ETFs to gold purchasing in May 2024, global funds have accumulated 481t net (~11% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) as well as geopolitical unrest

Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metalโ€™s price will remain elevated in 2025, given ongoing inflows into global ETFs and central banks, in addition to the global trade related concerns

#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites

๐Ÿ“‰Gold-backed ETFs sold 19t of gold net in May, after the +115t in April, according to World Gold Council data. Most of the outflows were recorded in North America (-16t). However, since May 2024, global funds have accumulated 462t net (~10% of world physical demand, in annualised terms), following the monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) as well as geopolitical unrest. These factors are still in place and the ETF outflows are unlikely to be sustainable, in our view

Although at spot gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level for 1H25 (~USD 2,500/oz), we think the precious metalโ€™s price will remain elevated in 2025, given strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to the global trade related concerns

#ETF #gold