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Ukraine. Read if you survive

Preamble. The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) is an American think tank founded in 1972 by the West German government to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Marshall Plan. Its goal is to promote cooperation and understanding between the United States and Europe. The GMF conducts research, organises international conferences, and supports leadership exchange programmes and initiatives aimed at strengthening democracy. It is headquartered in Washington, D.C., with offices in Berlin, Brussels, Ankara, Belgrade, Bucharest, Paris, and Warsaw.

The author of the article, Josh Rudolph, is a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, leading its work on countering autocracies. Previously, he worked at the White House, the U.S. Treasury Department, the IMF, and USAID, where he focused on sanctions against Russia and anti-corruption.

«Put Country First, as Ukrainians Do

Marking three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion, this article is dedicated to the Ukrainian people, from whom all freedom-loving peoples will soon need to draw inspiration.

For three years, Ukrainians have dug deep within themselves and made great sacrifices to preserve their basic freedoms. History shows that citizens of democracies the world over will have to do the same within the next few years.

It’s not a coincidence that the three deadliest wars in American history were spaced 80–86 years apart: the Revolutionary War in 1775, the Civil War in 1861, and US entry into WWII in 1941. And now it has been another 84 years, so history is about to call.

This cycle traces back through 500 years of Anglo-American history and was seen in classical antiquity dating back to the Etruscans, who called this recurring period a “saeculum”—the lifetime required for scarring impressions of total war to slip out of living memory. Although this generational theory is best developed by William Strauss and Neil Howe, who call it the “fourth turning”, other historians document this once-a-lifetime frequency of major/hegemonic/general/global wars. The timing cannot be forecasted with the precision of a single year, which depends on unpredictable events and decisions. But it can be predicted to a given decade, by which time citizens have romantic notions of war, feel more impassioned by ideology than security, and elect strongmen who promise to avenge grievances and solve intractable problems by getting tough.

These generational impulses fuel decades of rising social pressure, until a galvanizing event—the Boston Tea Party, Fort Sumter, Pearl Harbor—clarifies the existential challenge. Then everything changes. The few years of destruction that follow such an event were known by the ancients as the “Ekpyrosis” (conflagration). Particularly in free societies, citizens are so invested in preserving the community they have built that the Ekpyrosis taps into decades’ worth of frustration over unsolved problems and rising threats to unleash a previously unimaginable intensity of public energy: a tsunami of civic power that organizes all social urgencies into one collective fight that must be won.

Take the example of US mobilization following the attack on Pearl Harbor, an Ekpyrosis that lasted three and a half years until victory in mid-1945. The US military went into this period with fewer than half a million people, and then added another half-million to its ranks every two months until WWII ended, even as FDR—who updated his moniker from Dr. New Deal to Dr. Win-the-War—warned that one in three who enlisted wouldn’t return alive. Production of homes, cars, and appliances ceased as factories were retooled to build planes, ships, and weapons. A year after Pearl Harbor, 50 million Americans worked for the government war effort across agencies created to manage labor supply, set production quotas, fix wages and prices, and more. Scientists descended upon Los Alamos, where they worked 24/7 to invent an unprecedented weapon of mass destruction.
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