The Lookout (Twitter)

5/8
The issue of the ghosts of a Soviet past and the "clash" of leadership cultures in the AFU is important too.

A small Soviet Army is unlikely to defeat a larger one.

Bakhmut has uncovered some fault-lines that won't be insignificant in the future.

The Lookout (Twitter)

6/8
I don't know Ukrainian future plans nor have access to their situational picture.

Voicing concerns such as this isn't "bad analysis" and I do hope my concerns are unwarranted.

Different opinions are allowed. Data-points can be interpreted differently too.

The Lookout (Twitter)

7/8
A small note on sources:

After following the situation closely for a long time, one develops a feeling about who one should listen to and where to be more careful.

Looks can be deceiving, quality and confidence varies and circle reporting is a real issue.

The Lookout (Twitter)

8/8
This debate has become heated and there is a risk I will draw some flak.

Voicing these concerns is done with Ukraine’s best interests in mind.

Underestimating the challenges ahead, both those posed by Russia and also all the other important factors at play isn't helpful.

🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (Twitter)

#Ukraine: A valuable Russian R-934UM jamming station along with another KAMAZ-based vehicle was destroyed by the Ukrainian army using three M982 Excalibur and one GMLRS rocket somewhere in the East.

This appears to be the first documented loss of this electronic warfare asset.

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Неудачный прилёт по рашистской "Гвоздике" ОБТФ "Каскад" https://tttttt.me/wargonzo/11621 #1ак #роа #роспроп #RussianUkrainianWar

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)

/1. Destruction of Russian R-330 Zhitel electronic warfare system, by the 15th separate artillery reconnaissance brigade.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=783675606087989&id=209393139735717&eav=Afbk4mDU43hT7Q0TcHctz3RXHOe1v-u645Dw3hmdwCZNHfboxGfRpbcrraoJaQhVcp8&paipv=0&ref=sharing&wtsid=rdr_0KhoTpIJ8QNM0Gjwl&_rdr

Status-6 (Twitter)

RT @KilledInUkraine: ⚡️ Airborne Lieutenant Colonel Лисицкий Дмитрий Михайлович (Lisitsky Dmitry Mikhailovich), commander of the 2nd Air Assault Battalion of the 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment, Hero of Russia, was killed in Ukraine.
H/t @666_mancer
https://tttttt.me/Separ13_13/9910 https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1639942572759023616/photo/1

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

RT @bad_moskal: Тульская область. Киреевск. Повреждены несколько частных домов и многоэтажка. Два человека получили осколочные ранения. https://twitter.com/bad_moskal/status/1639990071540449280/video/1

Dan (Twitter)

RT @ObiOneKenobiNZ: The only thing dumber than a ruzzian, is their fanbase

‌🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (Twitter)

#Ukraine: A Russian R-330Zh Zhitel jamming and radio reconnaissance station was destroyed by a Ukrainian M982 Excalibur high-precision artillery strike- seen through the camera of a new Ukrainian Shark reconnaissance UAV. https://t.co/oyCqxOrpZU

‌Rob Lee (Twitter)

Photos of another Ukrainian UAV that was reportedly using a Starlink terminal.
https://t.co/yTYRjRCqYe https://t.co/NnbLpIk9hm