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EdgeFinder's NFP Beat/Miss Graph
Nonfarm Payrolls are due tomorrow, and expectations are calling for a weaker print than recent months.
But take a look at the chart below — this report loves to surprise. Just last month, NFP beat expectations by 36K. A few months back? It shocked markets with a 166K beat. On the flip side, we’ve also seen a 94K miss (Nov ‘24) that rattled sentiment.
It’s not just about the number — it’s about the gap between what’s expected and what actually hits the tape.
If the data surprises, expect volatility across USD pairs. This is one of those releases that can reshape rate expectations and trigger major moves.
Stay sharp, and keep the EdgeFinder close.
Nonfarm Payrolls are due tomorrow, and expectations are calling for a weaker print than recent months.
But take a look at the chart below — this report loves to surprise. Just last month, NFP beat expectations by 36K. A few months back? It shocked markets with a 166K beat. On the flip side, we’ve also seen a 94K miss (Nov ‘24) that rattled sentiment.
It’s not just about the number — it’s about the gap between what’s expected and what actually hits the tape.
If the data surprises, expect volatility across USD pairs. This is one of those releases that can reshape rate expectations and trigger major moves.
Stay sharp, and keep the EdgeFinder close.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When price breaks resistance, it may become…
When price breaks resistance, it may become…
Anonymous Quiz
4%
A gap
13%
Overbought
4%
Oversold
79%
New support
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DXY - NFP Miss, and Revised Way Lower
The US dollar slipped to 99.30, retreating from the 100 handle. The move came after July’s Nonfarm Payrolls disappointed — coming in at just 77K, well below expectations. On top of that, previous months were revised down by 238K, weakening the case that the US labor market has been holding strong.
This opened the door for more rate cut bets, as portions of the Fed continue to signal the need for easing. Markets are now leaning toward the idea that multiple cuts could be on the table this year.
Adding to pressure, the White House officially rolled out reciprocal tariffs on major partners like the EU, Japan, and Korea, with more hikes expected for Brazil, Switzerland, and India next week.
The dollar also lost ground to the euro after a hotter-than-expected inflation print in the EU, which boosted hawkish ECB sentiment.
The US dollar slipped to 99.30, retreating from the 100 handle. The move came after July’s Nonfarm Payrolls disappointed — coming in at just 77K, well below expectations. On top of that, previous months were revised down by 238K, weakening the case that the US labor market has been holding strong.
This opened the door for more rate cut bets, as portions of the Fed continue to signal the need for easing. Markets are now leaning toward the idea that multiple cuts could be on the table this year.
Adding to pressure, the White House officially rolled out reciprocal tariffs on major partners like the EU, Japan, and Korea, with more hikes expected for Brazil, Switzerland, and India next week.
The dollar also lost ground to the euro after a hotter-than-expected inflation print in the EU, which boosted hawkish ECB sentiment.
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US INDEXES - Context Matters
Stock indexes took a hit this morning after July’s jobs report came in weaker than expected — just 73K jobs added vs. 110K forecast. Normally, soft data like this would fuel rate cut hopes and give stocks a boost. But that wasn’t the case today.
Markets are reading this as a sign of real economic weakness, not just a soft patch. Slowing labor momentum, paired with rising global trade barriers, could signal lower corporate earnings ahead. Lower rates help only if growth stays intact — and today’s numbers raised doubt about that.
Traders are watching to see if this is just a knee-jerk move — or the start of something bigger.
Stock indexes took a hit this morning after July’s jobs report came in weaker than expected — just 73K jobs added vs. 110K forecast. Normally, soft data like this would fuel rate cut hopes and give stocks a boost. But that wasn’t the case today.
Markets are reading this as a sign of real economic weakness, not just a soft patch. Slowing labor momentum, paired with rising global trade barriers, could signal lower corporate earnings ahead. Lower rates help only if growth stays intact — and today’s numbers raised doubt about that.
Traders are watching to see if this is just a knee-jerk move — or the start of something bigger.
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US Economic Heatmap
The US economic outlook took a hit this week as key data came in below expectations.
- Non-Farm Payrolls missed big, coming in at just 73K vs. 110K expected
- Manufacturing PMIs dipped, and job openings cooled off
- On the bright side, GDP and ADP surprised to the upside, and wage growth ticked higher
Overall, the heatmap is showing mixed signals — with the USD impact dial sitting at 50%. It reflects the growing uncertainty around growth and inflation, especially ahead of the Fed’s next move.
Keep an eye on upcoming data — it’s the driver in this market. Use your EdgeFinder to stay informed and ready.
The US economic outlook took a hit this week as key data came in below expectations.
- Non-Farm Payrolls missed big, coming in at just 73K vs. 110K expected
- Manufacturing PMIs dipped, and job openings cooled off
- On the bright side, GDP and ADP surprised to the upside, and wage growth ticked higher
Overall, the heatmap is showing mixed signals — with the USD impact dial sitting at 50%. It reflects the growing uncertainty around growth and inflation, especially ahead of the Fed’s next move.
Keep an eye on upcoming data — it’s the driver in this market. Use your EdgeFinder to stay informed and ready.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What spooked markets today?
What spooked markets today?
Anonymous Quiz
12%
Strong CPI
8%
Fed rate hike
79%
Weak jobs report & tariffs
2%
Tech earnings miss
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USD/CHF – Back at Support
USD/CHF had a strong run the past two weeks — gaining 3.3% (260 pips). But momentum faded last Friday after a weaker-than-expected NFP print and a major sharp downward revision to previous reports, triggering a sell-off in U.S. assets. Now, USD/CHF is pulling back to support — sitting right near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentally, the U.S. raised tariffs on Swiss goods to 39%, up from 31% earlier this year. Despite a slight inflation uptick to 0.2% (vs. 0.1% expected), price growth remains subdued — and with trade tensions climbing, disinflationary pressures are still a concern. Adding to the bearish case for CHF, Swiss manufacturing PMI dropped further into contraction territory at 48.8. Markets are now leaning toward further rate cuts by the SNB as growth slows and external risks mount.
USD/CHF had a strong run the past two weeks — gaining 3.3% (260 pips). But momentum faded last Friday after a weaker-than-expected NFP print and a major sharp downward revision to previous reports, triggering a sell-off in U.S. assets. Now, USD/CHF is pulling back to support — sitting right near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentally, the U.S. raised tariffs on Swiss goods to 39%, up from 31% earlier this year. Despite a slight inflation uptick to 0.2% (vs. 0.1% expected), price growth remains subdued — and with trade tensions climbing, disinflationary pressures are still a concern. Adding to the bearish case for CHF, Swiss manufacturing PMI dropped further into contraction territory at 48.8. Markets are now leaning toward further rate cuts by the SNB as growth slows and external risks mount.
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VIX – Was that It?
Markets took a hit last week after a soft jobs report and fresh tariff headlines. The VIX spiked above 20 — the first time in over a month — signaling fear was back in the market.
When the VIX jumps, it often reflects rising uncertainty and can lead to sharp moves across risk assets like stocks, commodities, and currencies.
But since Friday’s spike, the VIX has faded lower — a sign that things may be stabilizing. When volatility cools off, it can bring buyers back in and help markets find their footing. For now, traders are keeping an eye on whether that fear was a quick flare-up — or the start of something bigger.
Markets took a hit last week after a soft jobs report and fresh tariff headlines. The VIX spiked above 20 — the first time in over a month — signaling fear was back in the market.
When the VIX jumps, it often reflects rising uncertainty and can lead to sharp moves across risk assets like stocks, commodities, and currencies.
But since Friday’s spike, the VIX has faded lower — a sign that things may be stabilizing. When volatility cools off, it can bring buyers back in and help markets find their footing. For now, traders are keeping an eye on whether that fear was a quick flare-up — or the start of something bigger.
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Economic Surprise Meter:
The latest Eco Surprise Meter shows a split in data strength across major currencies:
- EUR and NZD top the board with 100% and 88% surprise scores — most of their recent data came in stronger than expected.
- CHF and JPY also show decent resilience with 80% and 71% scores.
- On the other hand, GBP and AUD are lagging, both scoring just 38%, indicating recent metrics are consistently missing expectations.
- USD sits at 50%, reflecting a neutral surprise index — some beats, some misses.
For traders, this highlights which economies are surprising to the upside and could see support in the FX market if momentum continues.
Data From the EdgeFinder
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The latest Eco Surprise Meter shows a split in data strength across major currencies:
- EUR and NZD top the board with 100% and 88% surprise scores — most of their recent data came in stronger than expected.
- CHF and JPY also show decent resilience with 80% and 71% scores.
- On the other hand, GBP and AUD are lagging, both scoring just 38%, indicating recent metrics are consistently missing expectations.
- USD sits at 50%, reflecting a neutral surprise index — some beats, some misses.
For traders, this highlights which economies are surprising to the upside and could see support in the FX market if momentum continues.
Data From the EdgeFinder
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When tariffs rise, investors usually...
When tariffs rise, investors usually...
Anonymous Quiz
9%
Increase leverage
7%
Buy tech stocks
8%
Focus on growth
76%
Reduce risk
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GBP/USD - Pulling Back
GBP/USD broke below its head and shoulders neckline and traded down to support at 1.32000. Since then, the pair has been pulling back. Resistance now sits at 1.34000 — a break above that level could signal upside, while holding below may continue to validate the broader downtrend.
Fundamentally, UK PMI data came in better than expected early this morning. Traders are now focused on Thursday’s interest rate decision and the tone that follows. A hawkish hold could send the Pound higher, while a dovish hold could keep the downtrend intact.
At the moment, UK's Eco Surprise Meter sits stronger than the US. Also on Thursday, the US is expecting it's Jobless claims report -- potentially giving more clarity into the labor market. A continued disappointment in the labor market could trigger another selloff in US assets.
GBP/USD broke below its head and shoulders neckline and traded down to support at 1.32000. Since then, the pair has been pulling back. Resistance now sits at 1.34000 — a break above that level could signal upside, while holding below may continue to validate the broader downtrend.
Fundamentally, UK PMI data came in better than expected early this morning. Traders are now focused on Thursday’s interest rate decision and the tone that follows. A hawkish hold could send the Pound higher, while a dovish hold could keep the downtrend intact.
At the moment, UK's Eco Surprise Meter sits stronger than the US. Also on Thursday, the US is expecting it's Jobless claims report -- potentially giving more clarity into the labor market. A continued disappointment in the labor market could trigger another selloff in US assets.
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USD/CAD – Caught in a Standoff
USD/CAD recently bounced off long-term trendline support and climbed to 1.38000 — but since then, price action has stalled. The pair now sits between strong support and major resistance, waiting for a breakout.
Tensions are rising between the U.S. and Canada. The U.S. hiked tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by USMCA to 35%, with some sectors like steel, aluminum, and autos facing even higher penalties — and more hikes are expected. Canada hit back with 25% counter-tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. exports. While some duties have eased, the bulk remains in place.
The majority of Canadian exports are still protected under USMCA, but with political pressure building on both sides, there’s real risk of further escalation.
Looking ahead — Canada’s jobs data is due Friday. Both Unemployment and Employment Change are expected to miss, which could weigh on CAD sentiment heading into the weekend.
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USD/CAD recently bounced off long-term trendline support and climbed to 1.38000 — but since then, price action has stalled. The pair now sits between strong support and major resistance, waiting for a breakout.
Tensions are rising between the U.S. and Canada. The U.S. hiked tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by USMCA to 35%, with some sectors like steel, aluminum, and autos facing even higher penalties — and more hikes are expected. Canada hit back with 25% counter-tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. exports. While some duties have eased, the bulk remains in place.
The majority of Canadian exports are still protected under USMCA, but with political pressure building on both sides, there’s real risk of further escalation.
Looking ahead — Canada’s jobs data is due Friday. Both Unemployment and Employment Change are expected to miss, which could weigh on CAD sentiment heading into the weekend.
➡️ FREE Technical Analysis Course
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CA Economic Heatmap
The Canadian economy has looked solid recently — CAD scores 67% on the EdgeFinder Eco Surprise Meter
- Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs came in strong
- Labor data from June beat expectations
But Friday brings a new test:
Employment Change & Unemployment Rate
Meanwhile, last week’s rocky U.S. labor data keeps pressure on global risk sentiment. If Canadian jobs data miss, we could see that reflected in CAD volatility.
Stay alert — the picture could shift quickly.
Data From the EdgeFinder
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The Canadian economy has looked solid recently — CAD scores 67% on the EdgeFinder Eco Surprise Meter
- Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs came in strong
- Labor data from June beat expectations
But Friday brings a new test:
Employment Change & Unemployment Rate
Meanwhile, last week’s rocky U.S. labor data keeps pressure on global risk sentiment. If Canadian jobs data miss, we could see that reflected in CAD volatility.
Stay alert — the picture could shift quickly.
Data From the EdgeFinder
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🎁Get 10% off NOW with code TGVIP
👍12😱3🫡2
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