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EdgeFinder's Retail Sentiment
The dollar has been staging a quiet comeback — and it’s starting to show in positioning.
Retail traders are still leaning long on most major USD pairs:
USDCHF – 78% long
NZDUSD – 68% long
AUDUSD – 63% long
EURUSD – 59% long
GBPUSD – 54% long
That’s a clear tilt against the recent dollar strength — a potential contrarian signal.
Meanwhile, USDJPY and USDCAD are more balanced, with positioning nearly 50/50.
EdgeFinder bias leans bearish on many of these pairs, but retail positioning is skewed. Don’t forget — when the crowd gets too one-sided, the market tends to punish them.
Keep watching retail sentiment as the Fed and BoJ rate decisions approach. Momentum could shift fast
The dollar has been staging a quiet comeback — and it’s starting to show in positioning.
Retail traders are still leaning long on most major USD pairs:
USDCHF – 78% long
NZDUSD – 68% long
AUDUSD – 63% long
EURUSD – 59% long
GBPUSD – 54% long
That’s a clear tilt against the recent dollar strength — a potential contrarian signal.
Meanwhile, USDJPY and USDCAD are more balanced, with positioning nearly 50/50.
EdgeFinder bias leans bearish on many of these pairs, but retail positioning is skewed. Don’t forget — when the crowd gets too one-sided, the market tends to punish them.
Keep watching retail sentiment as the Fed and BoJ rate decisions approach. Momentum could shift fast
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What's the main purpose of a trendline?
What's the main purpose of a trendline?
Anonymous Quiz
3%
Track volume
1%
Mark news events
90%
Identify direction
6%
Time entries perfectly
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DXY – Pivotal Moment
DXY is trading at 99, a key level to overcome if upside is the next leg. Previously, DXY rejected this level and flushed back to the 97 territory. A break above could open the door to test resistance at 100.5.
Markets were quiet early Wednesday as traders wait for key data from the US, Japan, and Canada. The Fed has a rate decision today — which is expected to be a hold. The piece everyone is looking for is whether it’s a hawkish hold or dovish hold. A September rate cut remains the base case, but upcoming data — especially Friday's NFP report — will be pivotal.
Overall, traders are back to being data-dependent and risk-aware, with global rate expectations, trade policy clarity, and growth divergence continuing to drive directional bias across major currencies.
DXY is trading at 99, a key level to overcome if upside is the next leg. Previously, DXY rejected this level and flushed back to the 97 territory. A break above could open the door to test resistance at 100.5.
Markets were quiet early Wednesday as traders wait for key data from the US, Japan, and Canada. The Fed has a rate decision today — which is expected to be a hold. The piece everyone is looking for is whether it’s a hawkish hold or dovish hold. A September rate cut remains the base case, but upcoming data — especially Friday's NFP report — will be pivotal.
Overall, traders are back to being data-dependent and risk-aware, with global rate expectations, trade policy clarity, and growth divergence continuing to drive directional bias across major currencies.
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USOIL – Watching $69 Handle
OIL is trading above $69, holding a five-week high as geopolitical risk and improving trade ties support price. President Trump has reiterated the U.S. may impose additional tariffs on countries still buying Russian crude, alongside threats of fresh sanctions if Moscow doesn’t resolve the Ukraine conflict within 10 days. That’s adding supply risk into the mix.
Oil futures were mixed in early morning, but the backdrop of potential disruptions could keep a floor under price — especially with the U.S.-EU trade deal helping avoid a broader trade war that might’ve hurt demand.
That said, API data showed a surprise 1.5M barrel build (vs. -2.5M expected), reversing last week’s draw and cooling some of the bullish momentum for now.
OIL is trading above $69, holding a five-week high as geopolitical risk and improving trade ties support price. President Trump has reiterated the U.S. may impose additional tariffs on countries still buying Russian crude, alongside threats of fresh sanctions if Moscow doesn’t resolve the Ukraine conflict within 10 days. That’s adding supply risk into the mix.
Oil futures were mixed in early morning, but the backdrop of potential disruptions could keep a floor under price — especially with the U.S.-EU trade deal helping avoid a broader trade war that might’ve hurt demand.
That said, API data showed a surprise 1.5M barrel build (vs. -2.5M expected), reversing last week’s draw and cooling some of the bullish momentum for now.
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EdgeFinder's Interest Rate Projections
It’s a major day for monetary policy: US, Japan, and Canada are all set to announce interest rate decisions.
Interest rates are one of the key drivers behind currency prices. Changes in a country’s rate impact how attractive its currency is to global investors — not just for return, but for carry trade potential and capital flows.
Even if a central bank holds steady, the tone of the statement can shift expectations going forward. Rate changes adjust the interest rate differential between currencies, which can cause major moves in the FX space.
EdgeFinder makes it easy to stay on top of it all — track every update, compare shifts, and know which currencies may gain or lose momentum.
Stay ready — big moves often start with central banks.
It’s a major day for monetary policy: US, Japan, and Canada are all set to announce interest rate decisions.
Interest rates are one of the key drivers behind currency prices. Changes in a country’s rate impact how attractive its currency is to global investors — not just for return, but for carry trade potential and capital flows.
Even if a central bank holds steady, the tone of the statement can shift expectations going forward. Rate changes adjust the interest rate differential between currencies, which can cause major moves in the FX space.
EdgeFinder makes it easy to stay on top of it all — track every update, compare shifts, and know which currencies may gain or lose momentum.
Stay ready — big moves often start with central banks.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does a strong dollar usually do to gold prices?
What does a strong dollar usually do to gold prices?
Anonymous Quiz
88%
Pushes them down
6%
Pushes them up
2%
Has no effect
4%
Increases volatility
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Is getting funded a goal of yours?
Anonymous Poll
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USD/JPY - Flying High
USD/JPY broke out of key resistance at 149 and is now heading to the next resistance level at 151.
The U.S. dollar is wrapping up July with its first monthly gain of 2025, supported by resilient economic data and fading trade war fears. Confidence in the U.S. economy, along with Powell's recent comments showing no urgency to cut rates, helped push the greenback toward two-month highs.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan kept rates steady but revised inflation forecasts higher through 2027, signaling a possible shift toward tightening. The yen initially rallied on rate hike hopes but ended up flat on the day.
Overall, the dollar gained about 3% this month against a basket of peers, and attention now shifts to whether the BOJ could hike later this year — possibly in October.
USD/JPY broke out of key resistance at 149 and is now heading to the next resistance level at 151.
The U.S. dollar is wrapping up July with its first monthly gain of 2025, supported by resilient economic data and fading trade war fears. Confidence in the U.S. economy, along with Powell's recent comments showing no urgency to cut rates, helped push the greenback toward two-month highs.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan kept rates steady but revised inflation forecasts higher through 2027, signaling a possible shift toward tightening. The yen initially rallied on rate hike hopes but ended up flat on the day.
Overall, the dollar gained about 3% this month against a basket of peers, and attention now shifts to whether the BOJ could hike later this year — possibly in October.
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GBP/USD - Textbook Technicals
The British pound continues it's fall after breaking the neckline of a topping head & shoulders pattern, now trading around 1.32000 — its weakest level since mid-May. GBP/USD is now approaching a previous strong level of support.
Fundamentally, the UK has growing concerns over the economy and rising expectations of rate cuts are weighing on sentiment.
In contrast, U.S. economic data has come in strong, with solid Q2 GDP and job gains helping the dollar stay supported. Markets are now pricing in two more cuts from the Bank of England this year, while the Fed is expected to hold steady for longer.
Sterling is down 3.7% this month — its worst showing since September 2022 — as slowing growth and fiscal concerns continue to pressure the currency.
The British pound continues it's fall after breaking the neckline of a topping head & shoulders pattern, now trading around 1.32000 — its weakest level since mid-May. GBP/USD is now approaching a previous strong level of support.
Fundamentally, the UK has growing concerns over the economy and rising expectations of rate cuts are weighing on sentiment.
In contrast, U.S. economic data has come in strong, with solid Q2 GDP and job gains helping the dollar stay supported. Markets are now pricing in two more cuts from the Bank of England this year, while the Fed is expected to hold steady for longer.
Sterling is down 3.7% this month — its worst showing since September 2022 — as slowing growth and fiscal concerns continue to pressure the currency.
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