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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does a strong dollar usually do to gold prices?
What does a strong dollar usually do to gold prices?
Anonymous Quiz
89%
Pushes them down
6%
Pushes them up
2%
Has no effect
4%
Increases volatility
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Anonymous Poll
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USD/JPY - Flying High
USD/JPY broke out of key resistance at 149 and is now heading to the next resistance level at 151.
The U.S. dollar is wrapping up July with its first monthly gain of 2025, supported by resilient economic data and fading trade war fears. Confidence in the U.S. economy, along with Powell's recent comments showing no urgency to cut rates, helped push the greenback toward two-month highs.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan kept rates steady but revised inflation forecasts higher through 2027, signaling a possible shift toward tightening. The yen initially rallied on rate hike hopes but ended up flat on the day.
Overall, the dollar gained about 3% this month against a basket of peers, and attention now shifts to whether the BOJ could hike later this year — possibly in October.
USD/JPY broke out of key resistance at 149 and is now heading to the next resistance level at 151.
The U.S. dollar is wrapping up July with its first monthly gain of 2025, supported by resilient economic data and fading trade war fears. Confidence in the U.S. economy, along with Powell's recent comments showing no urgency to cut rates, helped push the greenback toward two-month highs.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan kept rates steady but revised inflation forecasts higher through 2027, signaling a possible shift toward tightening. The yen initially rallied on rate hike hopes but ended up flat on the day.
Overall, the dollar gained about 3% this month against a basket of peers, and attention now shifts to whether the BOJ could hike later this year — possibly in October.
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GBP/USD - Textbook Technicals
The British pound continues it's fall after breaking the neckline of a topping head & shoulders pattern, now trading around 1.32000 — its weakest level since mid-May. GBP/USD is now approaching a previous strong level of support.
Fundamentally, the UK has growing concerns over the economy and rising expectations of rate cuts are weighing on sentiment.
In contrast, U.S. economic data has come in strong, with solid Q2 GDP and job gains helping the dollar stay supported. Markets are now pricing in two more cuts from the Bank of England this year, while the Fed is expected to hold steady for longer.
Sterling is down 3.7% this month — its worst showing since September 2022 — as slowing growth and fiscal concerns continue to pressure the currency.
The British pound continues it's fall after breaking the neckline of a topping head & shoulders pattern, now trading around 1.32000 — its weakest level since mid-May. GBP/USD is now approaching a previous strong level of support.
Fundamentally, the UK has growing concerns over the economy and rising expectations of rate cuts are weighing on sentiment.
In contrast, U.S. economic data has come in strong, with solid Q2 GDP and job gains helping the dollar stay supported. Markets are now pricing in two more cuts from the Bank of England this year, while the Fed is expected to hold steady for longer.
Sterling is down 3.7% this month — its worst showing since September 2022 — as slowing growth and fiscal concerns continue to pressure the currency.
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EdgeFinder's NFP Beat/Miss Graph
Nonfarm Payrolls are due tomorrow, and expectations are calling for a weaker print than recent months.
But take a look at the chart below — this report loves to surprise. Just last month, NFP beat expectations by 36K. A few months back? It shocked markets with a 166K beat. On the flip side, we’ve also seen a 94K miss (Nov ‘24) that rattled sentiment.
It’s not just about the number — it’s about the gap between what’s expected and what actually hits the tape.
If the data surprises, expect volatility across USD pairs. This is one of those releases that can reshape rate expectations and trigger major moves.
Stay sharp, and keep the EdgeFinder close.
Nonfarm Payrolls are due tomorrow, and expectations are calling for a weaker print than recent months.
But take a look at the chart below — this report loves to surprise. Just last month, NFP beat expectations by 36K. A few months back? It shocked markets with a 166K beat. On the flip side, we’ve also seen a 94K miss (Nov ‘24) that rattled sentiment.
It’s not just about the number — it’s about the gap between what’s expected and what actually hits the tape.
If the data surprises, expect volatility across USD pairs. This is one of those releases that can reshape rate expectations and trigger major moves.
Stay sharp, and keep the EdgeFinder close.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When price breaks resistance, it may become…
When price breaks resistance, it may become…
Anonymous Quiz
4%
A gap
12%
Overbought
4%
Oversold
80%
New support
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DXY - NFP Miss, and Revised Way Lower
The US dollar slipped to 99.30, retreating from the 100 handle. The move came after July’s Nonfarm Payrolls disappointed — coming in at just 77K, well below expectations. On top of that, previous months were revised down by 238K, weakening the case that the US labor market has been holding strong.
This opened the door for more rate cut bets, as portions of the Fed continue to signal the need for easing. Markets are now leaning toward the idea that multiple cuts could be on the table this year.
Adding to pressure, the White House officially rolled out reciprocal tariffs on major partners like the EU, Japan, and Korea, with more hikes expected for Brazil, Switzerland, and India next week.
The dollar also lost ground to the euro after a hotter-than-expected inflation print in the EU, which boosted hawkish ECB sentiment.
The US dollar slipped to 99.30, retreating from the 100 handle. The move came after July’s Nonfarm Payrolls disappointed — coming in at just 77K, well below expectations. On top of that, previous months were revised down by 238K, weakening the case that the US labor market has been holding strong.
This opened the door for more rate cut bets, as portions of the Fed continue to signal the need for easing. Markets are now leaning toward the idea that multiple cuts could be on the table this year.
Adding to pressure, the White House officially rolled out reciprocal tariffs on major partners like the EU, Japan, and Korea, with more hikes expected for Brazil, Switzerland, and India next week.
The dollar also lost ground to the euro after a hotter-than-expected inflation print in the EU, which boosted hawkish ECB sentiment.
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US INDEXES - Context Matters
Stock indexes took a hit this morning after July’s jobs report came in weaker than expected — just 73K jobs added vs. 110K forecast. Normally, soft data like this would fuel rate cut hopes and give stocks a boost. But that wasn’t the case today.
Markets are reading this as a sign of real economic weakness, not just a soft patch. Slowing labor momentum, paired with rising global trade barriers, could signal lower corporate earnings ahead. Lower rates help only if growth stays intact — and today’s numbers raised doubt about that.
Traders are watching to see if this is just a knee-jerk move — or the start of something bigger.
Stock indexes took a hit this morning after July’s jobs report came in weaker than expected — just 73K jobs added vs. 110K forecast. Normally, soft data like this would fuel rate cut hopes and give stocks a boost. But that wasn’t the case today.
Markets are reading this as a sign of real economic weakness, not just a soft patch. Slowing labor momentum, paired with rising global trade barriers, could signal lower corporate earnings ahead. Lower rates help only if growth stays intact — and today’s numbers raised doubt about that.
Traders are watching to see if this is just a knee-jerk move — or the start of something bigger.
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US Economic Heatmap
The US economic outlook took a hit this week as key data came in below expectations.
- Non-Farm Payrolls missed big, coming in at just 73K vs. 110K expected
- Manufacturing PMIs dipped, and job openings cooled off
- On the bright side, GDP and ADP surprised to the upside, and wage growth ticked higher
Overall, the heatmap is showing mixed signals — with the USD impact dial sitting at 50%. It reflects the growing uncertainty around growth and inflation, especially ahead of the Fed’s next move.
Keep an eye on upcoming data — it’s the driver in this market. Use your EdgeFinder to stay informed and ready.
The US economic outlook took a hit this week as key data came in below expectations.
- Non-Farm Payrolls missed big, coming in at just 73K vs. 110K expected
- Manufacturing PMIs dipped, and job openings cooled off
- On the bright side, GDP and ADP surprised to the upside, and wage growth ticked higher
Overall, the heatmap is showing mixed signals — with the USD impact dial sitting at 50%. It reflects the growing uncertainty around growth and inflation, especially ahead of the Fed’s next move.
Keep an eye on upcoming data — it’s the driver in this market. Use your EdgeFinder to stay informed and ready.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What spooked markets today?
What spooked markets today?
Anonymous Quiz
11%
Strong CPI
8%
Fed rate hike
79%
Weak jobs report & tariffs
2%
Tech earnings miss
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USD/CHF – Back at Support
USD/CHF had a strong run the past two weeks — gaining 3.3% (260 pips). But momentum faded last Friday after a weaker-than-expected NFP print and a major sharp downward revision to previous reports, triggering a sell-off in U.S. assets. Now, USD/CHF is pulling back to support — sitting right near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentally, the U.S. raised tariffs on Swiss goods to 39%, up from 31% earlier this year. Despite a slight inflation uptick to 0.2% (vs. 0.1% expected), price growth remains subdued — and with trade tensions climbing, disinflationary pressures are still a concern. Adding to the bearish case for CHF, Swiss manufacturing PMI dropped further into contraction territory at 48.8. Markets are now leaning toward further rate cuts by the SNB as growth slows and external risks mount.
USD/CHF had a strong run the past two weeks — gaining 3.3% (260 pips). But momentum faded last Friday after a weaker-than-expected NFP print and a major sharp downward revision to previous reports, triggering a sell-off in U.S. assets. Now, USD/CHF is pulling back to support — sitting right near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentally, the U.S. raised tariffs on Swiss goods to 39%, up from 31% earlier this year. Despite a slight inflation uptick to 0.2% (vs. 0.1% expected), price growth remains subdued — and with trade tensions climbing, disinflationary pressures are still a concern. Adding to the bearish case for CHF, Swiss manufacturing PMI dropped further into contraction territory at 48.8. Markets are now leaning toward further rate cuts by the SNB as growth slows and external risks mount.
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