VIX – Was that It?
Markets took a hit last week after a soft jobs report and fresh tariff headlines. The VIX spiked above 20 — the first time in over a month — signaling fear was back in the market.
When the VIX jumps, it often reflects rising uncertainty and can lead to sharp moves across risk assets like stocks, commodities, and currencies.
But since Friday’s spike, the VIX has faded lower — a sign that things may be stabilizing. When volatility cools off, it can bring buyers back in and help markets find their footing. For now, traders are keeping an eye on whether that fear was a quick flare-up — or the start of something bigger.
Markets took a hit last week after a soft jobs report and fresh tariff headlines. The VIX spiked above 20 — the first time in over a month — signaling fear was back in the market.
When the VIX jumps, it often reflects rising uncertainty and can lead to sharp moves across risk assets like stocks, commodities, and currencies.
But since Friday’s spike, the VIX has faded lower — a sign that things may be stabilizing. When volatility cools off, it can bring buyers back in and help markets find their footing. For now, traders are keeping an eye on whether that fear was a quick flare-up — or the start of something bigger.
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Economic Surprise Meter:
The latest Eco Surprise Meter shows a split in data strength across major currencies:
- EUR and NZD top the board with 100% and 88% surprise scores — most of their recent data came in stronger than expected.
- CHF and JPY also show decent resilience with 80% and 71% scores.
- On the other hand, GBP and AUD are lagging, both scoring just 38%, indicating recent metrics are consistently missing expectations.
- USD sits at 50%, reflecting a neutral surprise index — some beats, some misses.
For traders, this highlights which economies are surprising to the upside and could see support in the FX market if momentum continues.
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The latest Eco Surprise Meter shows a split in data strength across major currencies:
- EUR and NZD top the board with 100% and 88% surprise scores — most of their recent data came in stronger than expected.
- CHF and JPY also show decent resilience with 80% and 71% scores.
- On the other hand, GBP and AUD are lagging, both scoring just 38%, indicating recent metrics are consistently missing expectations.
- USD sits at 50%, reflecting a neutral surprise index — some beats, some misses.
For traders, this highlights which economies are surprising to the upside and could see support in the FX market if momentum continues.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When tariffs rise, investors usually...
When tariffs rise, investors usually...
Anonymous Quiz
8%
Increase leverage
7%
Buy tech stocks
8%
Focus on growth
77%
Reduce risk
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GBP/USD - Pulling Back
GBP/USD broke below its head and shoulders neckline and traded down to support at 1.32000. Since then, the pair has been pulling back. Resistance now sits at 1.34000 — a break above that level could signal upside, while holding below may continue to validate the broader downtrend.
Fundamentally, UK PMI data came in better than expected early this morning. Traders are now focused on Thursday’s interest rate decision and the tone that follows. A hawkish hold could send the Pound higher, while a dovish hold could keep the downtrend intact.
At the moment, UK's Eco Surprise Meter sits stronger than the US. Also on Thursday, the US is expecting it's Jobless claims report -- potentially giving more clarity into the labor market. A continued disappointment in the labor market could trigger another selloff in US assets.
GBP/USD broke below its head and shoulders neckline and traded down to support at 1.32000. Since then, the pair has been pulling back. Resistance now sits at 1.34000 — a break above that level could signal upside, while holding below may continue to validate the broader downtrend.
Fundamentally, UK PMI data came in better than expected early this morning. Traders are now focused on Thursday’s interest rate decision and the tone that follows. A hawkish hold could send the Pound higher, while a dovish hold could keep the downtrend intact.
At the moment, UK's Eco Surprise Meter sits stronger than the US. Also on Thursday, the US is expecting it's Jobless claims report -- potentially giving more clarity into the labor market. A continued disappointment in the labor market could trigger another selloff in US assets.
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USD/CAD – Caught in a Standoff
USD/CAD recently bounced off long-term trendline support and climbed to 1.38000 — but since then, price action has stalled. The pair now sits between strong support and major resistance, waiting for a breakout.
Tensions are rising between the U.S. and Canada. The U.S. hiked tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by USMCA to 35%, with some sectors like steel, aluminum, and autos facing even higher penalties — and more hikes are expected. Canada hit back with 25% counter-tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. exports. While some duties have eased, the bulk remains in place.
The majority of Canadian exports are still protected under USMCA, but with political pressure building on both sides, there’s real risk of further escalation.
Looking ahead — Canada’s jobs data is due Friday. Both Unemployment and Employment Change are expected to miss, which could weigh on CAD sentiment heading into the weekend.
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USD/CAD recently bounced off long-term trendline support and climbed to 1.38000 — but since then, price action has stalled. The pair now sits between strong support and major resistance, waiting for a breakout.
Tensions are rising between the U.S. and Canada. The U.S. hiked tariffs on Canadian goods not covered by USMCA to 35%, with some sectors like steel, aluminum, and autos facing even higher penalties — and more hikes are expected. Canada hit back with 25% counter-tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. exports. While some duties have eased, the bulk remains in place.
The majority of Canadian exports are still protected under USMCA, but with political pressure building on both sides, there’s real risk of further escalation.
Looking ahead — Canada’s jobs data is due Friday. Both Unemployment and Employment Change are expected to miss, which could weigh on CAD sentiment heading into the weekend.
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CA Economic Heatmap
The Canadian economy has looked solid recently — CAD scores 67% on the EdgeFinder Eco Surprise Meter
- Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs came in strong
- Labor data from June beat expectations
But Friday brings a new test:
Employment Change & Unemployment Rate
Meanwhile, last week’s rocky U.S. labor data keeps pressure on global risk sentiment. If Canadian jobs data miss, we could see that reflected in CAD volatility.
Stay alert — the picture could shift quickly.
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The Canadian economy has looked solid recently — CAD scores 67% on the EdgeFinder Eco Surprise Meter
- Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs came in strong
- Labor data from June beat expectations
But Friday brings a new test:
Employment Change & Unemployment Rate
Meanwhile, last week’s rocky U.S. labor data keeps pressure on global risk sentiment. If Canadian jobs data miss, we could see that reflected in CAD volatility.
Stay alert — the picture could shift quickly.
Data From the EdgeFinder
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What’s the Feds primary tool to control inflation?
What’s the Feds primary tool to control inflation?
Anonymous Quiz
3%
Tax policy
91%
Interest rates
2%
Government spending
4%
Money printing
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NZD/USD – Pullback or Recovery?
NZD/USD has bounced the last two days, clawing back some losses from last week. The pair found support at 0.58000, but now traders are watching closely — is this a true recovery or just a pullback before another leg lower?
Gains may be limited by soft economic data out of New Zealand. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2% in Q2 — the highest in nearly five years. While slightly better than the expected 5.3%, it still reinforces a weak labor market.
Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a 5bps cut at the next RBNZ meeting, with further easing likely into early next year.
Meanwhile, US data has also weakened, especially around jobs. Traders are now betting on a September rate cut from the Fed — which could play a key role in where NZD/USD heads next.
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NZD/USD has bounced the last two days, clawing back some losses from last week. The pair found support at 0.58000, but now traders are watching closely — is this a true recovery or just a pullback before another leg lower?
Gains may be limited by soft economic data out of New Zealand. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2% in Q2 — the highest in nearly five years. While slightly better than the expected 5.3%, it still reinforces a weak labor market.
Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a 5bps cut at the next RBNZ meeting, with further easing likely into early next year.
Meanwhile, US data has also weakened, especially around jobs. Traders are now betting on a September rate cut from the Fed — which could play a key role in where NZD/USD heads next.
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USOIL – Watching Supply Dynamics
USOIL climbed above $65 today, reacting to an established supply zone—driven by supply disruption concerns and bullish inventory data.
Investors are weighing potential shifts in global supply as India considers cutting Russian oil imports in response to U.S. tariff threats. President Trump warned of higher tariffs on Indian goods within 24 hours and suggested that falling energy prices could pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, API data showed U.S. crude stockpiles dropped by 4.2 million barrels last week—beating expectations of a 1.8 million-barrel draw—signaling stronger-than-expected demand.
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USOIL climbed above $65 today, reacting to an established supply zone—driven by supply disruption concerns and bullish inventory data.
Investors are weighing potential shifts in global supply as India considers cutting Russian oil imports in response to U.S. tariff threats. President Trump warned of higher tariffs on Indian goods within 24 hours and suggested that falling energy prices could pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, API data showed U.S. crude stockpiles dropped by 4.2 million barrels last week—beating expectations of a 1.8 million-barrel draw—signaling stronger-than-expected demand.
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NZD Economic Heatmap
New Zealand’s Economic Heatmap reflects softening conditions. The NZD strength score has declined from 88% to 75%, signaling growing cracks in the fundamental picture.
Earlier this week, New Zealand’s unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2% — the highest in nearly five years. While slightly better than forecasts, it reinforces expectations for further easing from the RBNZ. Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in August, with the possibility of more to come.
All eyes are on whether recent strength in NZD pairs is a true recovery or just a pullback in a broader downtrend. Weak economic data could continue to weigh on the Kiwi moving forward.
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New Zealand’s Economic Heatmap reflects softening conditions. The NZD strength score has declined from 88% to 75%, signaling growing cracks in the fundamental picture.
Earlier this week, New Zealand’s unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2% — the highest in nearly five years. While slightly better than forecasts, it reinforces expectations for further easing from the RBNZ. Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in August, with the possibility of more to come.
All eyes are on whether recent strength in NZD pairs is a true recovery or just a pullback in a broader downtrend. Weak economic data could continue to weigh on the Kiwi moving forward.
Stay ahead of the shifts with your EdgeFinder.
Data From the EdgeFinder
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why do rising oil prices often push inflation higher?
Why do rising oil prices often push inflation higher?
Anonymous Quiz
86%
Higher transport & production costs
10%
Boost consumer demand
2%
Slow wage growth
2%
Increase unemployment
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GBP/USD – Neckline Retest
GBP/USD broke down from a head & shoulders topping pattern last week, falling to support at 1.32000. Now, price has retraced back to the neckline — a key resistance level that also lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The question now is whether this zone holds or gives way to further upside.
Fundamentally, the Bank of England delivered a widely expected 25 basis-point rate cut to 4.00%. However, the vote was split — five members voted for the cut, while four preferred to hold. Notably, one member who initially backed a 50 basis-point cut shifted to 25bps in a second-round vote.
The tight vote and cautious tone suggest the BOE isn’t rushing into a full easing cycle. Forward guidance still points to a "gradual and careful" approach, which could temper expectations for aggressive cuts going forward.
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GBP/USD broke down from a head & shoulders topping pattern last week, falling to support at 1.32000. Now, price has retraced back to the neckline — a key resistance level that also lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The question now is whether this zone holds or gives way to further upside.
Fundamentally, the Bank of England delivered a widely expected 25 basis-point rate cut to 4.00%. However, the vote was split — five members voted for the cut, while four preferred to hold. Notably, one member who initially backed a 50 basis-point cut shifted to 25bps in a second-round vote.
The tight vote and cautious tone suggest the BOE isn’t rushing into a full easing cycle. Forward guidance still points to a "gradual and careful" approach, which could temper expectations for aggressive cuts going forward.
👉 FREE Fundamental Analysis Course
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USD/CHF – Tariff Pressure & Rate Cut Expectations
USD/CHF is holding support around 0.80500 as markets digest the impact of steep U.S. tariffs and the broader outlook for interest rates.
Fundamentally, a 39% tariff on Swiss exports—one of the highest globally—formally took effect this week. Despite last-minute talks, the measure is now in place, affecting roughly 60% of Swiss exports to the U.S. Key industries like pharmaceuticals, watches, machinery, and chocolate are expected to feel the impact.
On the domestic front, Swiss inflation ticked up slightly to 0.2% year-over-year in July—above the 0.1% forecast but still near flat.
With inflation remaining subdued and global risks rising, the Swiss National Bank could stay on track to ease further, possibly pushing rates deeper into negative territory.
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USD/CHF is holding support around 0.80500 as markets digest the impact of steep U.S. tariffs and the broader outlook for interest rates.
Fundamentally, a 39% tariff on Swiss exports—one of the highest globally—formally took effect this week. Despite last-minute talks, the measure is now in place, affecting roughly 60% of Swiss exports to the U.S. Key industries like pharmaceuticals, watches, machinery, and chocolate are expected to feel the impact.
On the domestic front, Swiss inflation ticked up slightly to 0.2% year-over-year in July—above the 0.1% forecast but still near flat.
With inflation remaining subdued and global risks rising, the Swiss National Bank could stay on track to ease further, possibly pushing rates deeper into negative territory.
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EdgeFinder's FX Scanner - GBP/USD
The Bank of England delivered a 25 basis point rate cut but the decision wasn’t unanimous—highlighting a growing divide among policymakers. This mixed stance reflects rising uncertainty about the BoE’s forward path.
Looking ahead, upcoming UK data could be key in shaping future decisions. If economic releases lean weak, the case for further easing strengthens. On the flip side, any upside surprises could shift the tone toward caution.
Pay close attention to forward guidance and the data that could influence it.
Stay on top of real-time shifts in market fundamentals, sentiment, and institutional positioning—all in one place, with EdgeFinder.
Data From the EdgeFinder
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The Bank of England delivered a 25 basis point rate cut but the decision wasn’t unanimous—highlighting a growing divide among policymakers. This mixed stance reflects rising uncertainty about the BoE’s forward path.
Looking ahead, upcoming UK data could be key in shaping future decisions. If economic releases lean weak, the case for further easing strengthens. On the flip side, any upside surprises could shift the tone toward caution.
Pay close attention to forward guidance and the data that could influence it.
Stay on top of real-time shifts in market fundamentals, sentiment, and institutional positioning—all in one place, with EdgeFinder.
Data From the EdgeFinder
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