A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
Closing another +30 pips on NZDCAD today 🔥 Tapping into resistance, and reducing my long NZD exposure (I have multiple open positions on it atm). I'll take it! - Nick
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Economic Surprise Meter – Quiet Climb from USD
The EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter shows a steady pickup in U.S. economic strength — with the USD now at 62%, slowly grinding higher. That move’s been quietly mirrored in price action across dollar pairs.
Today’s key data:
🇪🇺 EU PMI's
🇪🇺 EU Rate Decision
🇬🇧 UK PMI's
🇨🇦 Canada Retail Sales
These releases have the potential to shake up charts and sentiment across the board.
Fundamentals matter — and the EdgeFinder helps you stay one step ahead. Don’t miss the next market move.
The EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter shows a steady pickup in U.S. economic strength — with the USD now at 62%, slowly grinding higher. That move’s been quietly mirrored in price action across dollar pairs.
Today’s key data:
🇪🇺 EU PMI's
🇪🇺 EU Rate Decision
🇬🇧 UK PMI's
🇨🇦 Canada Retail Sales
These releases have the potential to shake up charts and sentiment across the board.
Fundamentals matter — and the EdgeFinder helps you stay one step ahead. Don’t miss the next market move.
🔥16❤9👍5
🛎️ Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When inflation is high, central banks often…
When inflation is high, central banks often…
Anonymous Quiz
39%
Cut interest rates
54%
Raise interest rates
7%
Sell gold
0%
Intervene in FX
❤19👍3
Gold – Pulling Back After Rejection
Gold is on pace for the third straight session of losses after a strong rally earlier in the week. Price rejected the $3,440 resistance zone — now marking the fourth failed attempt at that level. Gold is back near the middle of its defined range, an area where it’s historically seen consolidation and choppy behavior as the market awaits new direction.
One potential catalyst? Progress on a U.S.–EU trade deal. Headlines suggest the two sides are nearing an agreement, modeled somewhat after Washington’s recent pact with Japan. The deal would include a 15% tariff — lower than the originally proposed 30% — and is easing safe-haven demand for now.
Looking ahead, gold may remain rangebound unless we get a surprise shift in risk sentiment, interest rate expectations, or trade headlines
Gold is on pace for the third straight session of losses after a strong rally earlier in the week. Price rejected the $3,440 resistance zone — now marking the fourth failed attempt at that level. Gold is back near the middle of its defined range, an area where it’s historically seen consolidation and choppy behavior as the market awaits new direction.
One potential catalyst? Progress on a U.S.–EU trade deal. Headlines suggest the two sides are nearing an agreement, modeled somewhat after Washington’s recent pact with Japan. The deal would include a 15% tariff — lower than the originally proposed 30% — and is easing safe-haven demand for now.
Looking ahead, gold may remain rangebound unless we get a surprise shift in risk sentiment, interest rate expectations, or trade headlines
❤30🔥9
GBP/USD – Growth Concerns Take Center Stage
The pound is pulling back, now trading near 1.3430 after stalling out around the 1.3580 mark — a two-week high. The pair is sitting on a familiar support zone, an area that’s held up in the past. But price action on the daily chart is hinting at a potential head and shoulders top. A confirmed break lower could open the door toward the next key level at 1.3200.
Recent UK data has shifted the narrative from inflation to growth. June retail sales rebounded by just 0.9% after May’s drop was revised even lower. Core sales missed as well, rising only 0.6% versus expectations of 1.2%. Despite weather-driven strength in food sales, the broader rebound remains weak.
With soft PMIs and sluggish consumer data, markets are leaning toward a BoE rate cut in August, with another potentially on deck before year-end.
The pound is pulling back, now trading near 1.3430 after stalling out around the 1.3580 mark — a two-week high. The pair is sitting on a familiar support zone, an area that’s held up in the past. But price action on the daily chart is hinting at a potential head and shoulders top. A confirmed break lower could open the door toward the next key level at 1.3200.
Recent UK data has shifted the narrative from inflation to growth. June retail sales rebounded by just 0.9% after May’s drop was revised even lower. Core sales missed as well, rising only 0.6% versus expectations of 1.2%. Despite weather-driven strength in food sales, the broader rebound remains weak.
With soft PMIs and sluggish consumer data, markets are leaning toward a BoE rate cut in August, with another potentially on deck before year-end.
❤20👍6
EdgeFinder's FX Scanner - GBP/USD
GBP/USD pulled back following a weaker-than-expected UK retail sales report and fading inflation fears. Core retail sales also disappointed, missing forecasts
This shift in tone — from inflation concerns to growth worries — is weighing on the pound. Combined with soft PMIs and a rising unemployment rate, markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of England rate cut in August. The EdgeFinder reflects this with a score of -7, confirming strong bearish pressure
Looking under the hood:
- COT Data shows institutions are lightening up on GBP exposure, while USD positioning leans slightly bearish but improved
- Retail Sentiment: Mixed
- Economic Growth Metrics: Retail sales (-2), services PMI (-1), and unemployment (-2) all paint a weak outlook
- Interest Rate Outlook: GBP sees a -1 score as cut expectations increase, while USD scores a +1 amid steadier Fed guidance
Markets will be watching closely for more clarity in next week’s BoE guidance and US data releases
GBP/USD pulled back following a weaker-than-expected UK retail sales report and fading inflation fears. Core retail sales also disappointed, missing forecasts
This shift in tone — from inflation concerns to growth worries — is weighing on the pound. Combined with soft PMIs and a rising unemployment rate, markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of England rate cut in August. The EdgeFinder reflects this with a score of -7, confirming strong bearish pressure
Looking under the hood:
- COT Data shows institutions are lightening up on GBP exposure, while USD positioning leans slightly bearish but improved
- Retail Sentiment: Mixed
- Economic Growth Metrics: Retail sales (-2), services PMI (-1), and unemployment (-2) all paint a weak outlook
- Interest Rate Outlook: GBP sees a -1 score as cut expectations increase, while USD scores a +1 amid steadier Fed guidance
Markets will be watching closely for more clarity in next week’s BoE guidance and US data releases
❤20👍4
🛎️ Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does the unemployment rate measure?
What does the unemployment rate measure?
Anonymous Quiz
6%
Interest rate changes
5%
Inflation trends
87%
% of people without jobs
2%
Stock market movement
❤25🔥9🙏6
EUR/USD – A Weekend Trade Deal Was Made
EUR/USD broke sharply lower after the U.S. and EU finalized a trade agreement over the weekend. The pair had been riding a steep uptrend since July 17, peaking near 1.17800 — but that move quickly reversed with the weekend news. Price fell aggressively to the 1.1650s, with the next key support down at 1.15800.
The trade deal included a 15% tariff on EU exports — half the 30% originally floated. Aircraft parts and certain chemicals are exempt, and auto tariffs were reduced. While it removes uncertainty, many EU officials see the agreement as imbalanced. Markets had largely priced in a resolution, which may explain the swift reversal.
The move favors the USD for now, as safe-haven demand eases and the Fed remains in focus with its rate decision later this week. The euro’s broader trend will depend on how this deal impacts growth expectations and future ECB guidance. Until then, price may hover near support as markets reassess positioning
EUR/USD broke sharply lower after the U.S. and EU finalized a trade agreement over the weekend. The pair had been riding a steep uptrend since July 17, peaking near 1.17800 — but that move quickly reversed with the weekend news. Price fell aggressively to the 1.1650s, with the next key support down at 1.15800.
The trade deal included a 15% tariff on EU exports — half the 30% originally floated. Aircraft parts and certain chemicals are exempt, and auto tariffs were reduced. While it removes uncertainty, many EU officials see the agreement as imbalanced. Markets had largely priced in a resolution, which may explain the swift reversal.
The move favors the USD for now, as safe-haven demand eases and the Fed remains in focus with its rate decision later this week. The euro’s broader trend will depend on how this deal impacts growth expectations and future ECB guidance. Until then, price may hover near support as markets reassess positioning
❤16👍6🔥1
Gold – Stabilizing After Trade Deal Shake-Up
Gold gave back early gains as dollar strength returned following news of a US-EU trade agreement. The deal includes a 15% tariff on most European goods—automobiles and semiconductors among them—while the EU agreed to a $750B commitment in US energy and military assets.
While the deal reduced some global uncertainty, it also tilted the scale in the dollar’s favor, cooling safe-haven demand for gold. Traders are now turning attention to a possible extension of the US-China trade truce, with negotiators meeting today to avoid new tariffs.
Markets are also eyeing this week’s jam-packed data calendar. The Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday could shift sentiment, especially alongside NFP, ADP, JOLTS, and the PCE index—all of which will help shape inflation expectations. Until then, gold may chop around as investors weigh the evolving macro backdrop.
Gold gave back early gains as dollar strength returned following news of a US-EU trade agreement. The deal includes a 15% tariff on most European goods—automobiles and semiconductors among them—while the EU agreed to a $750B commitment in US energy and military assets.
While the deal reduced some global uncertainty, it also tilted the scale in the dollar’s favor, cooling safe-haven demand for gold. Traders are now turning attention to a possible extension of the US-China trade truce, with negotiators meeting today to avoid new tariffs.
Markets are also eyeing this week’s jam-packed data calendar. The Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday could shift sentiment, especially alongside NFP, ADP, JOLTS, and the PCE index—all of which will help shape inflation expectations. Until then, gold may chop around as investors weigh the evolving macro backdrop.
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We’re excited to introduce Marko, our newest analyst at A1 Trading! With real prop firm experience and a solid track record across Forex, indices, metals, and crypto, Marko brings a disciplined, trend-following strategy to the team.
He’s sharing his trade signals inside the A1 Trading community alongside Nick starting August 1st!
🔗 Read more about Marko’s background and strategy here
⏳ Don’t forget—our 40% off sale is ending soon!
Use code TGVIP at checkout to get 40% off VIP signals from both Nick and Marko. Join Now!
❤35👍10🔥6
A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
Closing out my GBP/USD short position for another +51 pips profit 🚀 Price tapping into some daily chart support which previously held strong. Going to watch to see how price reacts here, for a possible new trade! Taking the win and moving on 🙏 - Nick
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🔥5
US Economic Heatmap – Resilience Across the Board
The latest data continues to favor the US. The EdgeFinder’s economic heatmap shows a strong string of beats across major categories — from NFP to retail sales and JOLTS. Even jobless claims and mortgage applications came in better than expected. The USD impact score sits at 62%, reflecting broad strength.
This resilience is coming at a time when the US is actively striking new trade deals — most recently with the EU and Japan — adding a confidence boost to US assets. These developments have kept demand elevated for the dollar, stocks, and even risk-on trades.
Looking ahead, the focus will turn to the Fed’s policy stance and whether incoming inflation and labor data will validate the market’s optimistic outlook. For now, the US macro picture remains one of the strongest globally.
The latest data continues to favor the US. The EdgeFinder’s economic heatmap shows a strong string of beats across major categories — from NFP to retail sales and JOLTS. Even jobless claims and mortgage applications came in better than expected. The USD impact score sits at 62%, reflecting broad strength.
This resilience is coming at a time when the US is actively striking new trade deals — most recently with the EU and Japan — adding a confidence boost to US assets. These developments have kept demand elevated for the dollar, stocks, and even risk-on trades.
Looking ahead, the focus will turn to the Fed’s policy stance and whether incoming inflation and labor data will validate the market’s optimistic outlook. For now, the US macro picture remains one of the strongest globally.
❤18👍8🔥4
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why do central banks raise interest rates?
Why do central banks raise interest rates?
Anonymous Quiz
4%
Boost exports
6%
Lower bond yields
10%
Increase spending
80%
Fight inflation
👍15🔥11👏7
USD/JPY – Fed + BoJ on Deck
USD/JPY is back at resistance around 149.00 — a level that rejected two weeks ago. A break and retest could open the door toward 151.00, while a rejection might send us back toward 146.00 support. This week’s calendar is stacked, with both the Fed and BoJ set to announce rate decisions.
Markets expect the Fed to hold steady at 4.5% on Wednesday. The bigger question is the forward guidance. Traders are watching for any hint of a cut in September — something that may already be partially priced in. Trump’s comments calling for immediate rate cuts add to the noise, but Powell’s tone will ultimately drive the move.
The Bank of Japan meets a day later. Another hold is expected, but with inflation rising in Japan, pressure is building for a shift. If they surprise with a hike, the yen could rip higher. But a dovish hold? That could be the greenlight for USD/JPY to break out toward multi-year highs.
USD/JPY is back at resistance around 149.00 — a level that rejected two weeks ago. A break and retest could open the door toward 151.00, while a rejection might send us back toward 146.00 support. This week’s calendar is stacked, with both the Fed and BoJ set to announce rate decisions.
Markets expect the Fed to hold steady at 4.5% on Wednesday. The bigger question is the forward guidance. Traders are watching for any hint of a cut in September — something that may already be partially priced in. Trump’s comments calling for immediate rate cuts add to the noise, but Powell’s tone will ultimately drive the move.
The Bank of Japan meets a day later. Another hold is expected, but with inflation rising in Japan, pressure is building for a shift. If they surprise with a hike, the yen could rip higher. But a dovish hold? That could be the greenlight for USD/JPY to break out toward multi-year highs.
❤28🔥4👏2
GBP/USD – It Broke
GBP/USD just cracked through a key level at 1.3400 — also the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart. That level had acted as strong support for weeks, but the break opens the door to 1.3200 as the next zone below.
Weak UK data has shifted focus from inflation to slowing growth. June’s retail sales came in soft, and PMIs haven’t impressed either. Markets are now pricing in a 25 bps rate cut from the Bank of England in August, with odds rising for another cut later this year.
Meanwhile, the US dollar caught a bid after a US-EU trade deal was reached. The agreement imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods and helped ease trade war concerns just ahead of the deadline — giving the dollar an extra tailwind.
GBP/USD just cracked through a key level at 1.3400 — also the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart. That level had acted as strong support for weeks, but the break opens the door to 1.3200 as the next zone below.
Weak UK data has shifted focus from inflation to slowing growth. June’s retail sales came in soft, and PMIs haven’t impressed either. Markets are now pricing in a 25 bps rate cut from the Bank of England in August, with odds rising for another cut later this year.
Meanwhile, the US dollar caught a bid after a US-EU trade deal was reached. The agreement imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods and helped ease trade war concerns just ahead of the deadline — giving the dollar an extra tailwind.
🔥26❤17🫡3