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Is This Normal For Oil🤔
Chart of the day: USO🔥

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EdgeFinder’s Eco Tab – Which Economies Are Surprising?

EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter gives us a snapshot of how each country’s economic data is performing relative to expectations — not just absolute numbers.

This week’s economic calendar is packed, making this meter especially useful:

- US: Final Q1 GDP, PCE inflation – critical for Fed expectations
- Eurozone: CPI Flash Estimate – key inflation readout for the ECB
- Japan: Tokyo CPI – a leading signal for national inflation trends
- Canada: Monthly GDP – a big one for CAD traders
- China: PMIs due – important for global risk sentiment
- Australia: Retail Sales – could impact AUD pairs significantly

In my opinion, this is one of the most underrated tools on EdgeFinder. Use it alongside price action and sentiment to build a well-rounded macro bias.

Let's see how the week unfolds!

– Alan

NASDAQ Daily Chart:

Fresh all-time-highs! With solid earnings from major companies, a ceasefire in the middle east, rate cuts expected this year, and inflation cooling down -

We've got a strong push by markets back to fresh highs.

Momentum continues to favor the bulls in my view, and I will continue to hold & add positioning on the bullish side. Looking for breakout + retest setups from here!

- Nick

Russell 2000 / US2000 Position still running hot.

Small cap companies could run in my view - as lower interest rates would considerably help them!

I will be trailing stops if we can get a breakout from here. Updates will follow in VIP.

Closing another +106 Pips on NZD/JPY 🔥

Nice bounce back in NZD!

- Nick

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GOLD – Downtrend Continues?

Gold has been trending lower for the past seven days, after rejecting resistance around $3,450 Currently, price is trading below the 50 Day MA — a close beneath this level could signal continued downside momentum. The next key support zone sits near $3,200.

Fundamentally, cooling tensions in the Middle East have eased demand for safe havens. Additionally, Trump mentioned that several trade deals are “in the final stages,” which may have added to broader risk-on sentiment. Also, equity indices have pushed to fresh ATH's

In my opinion, If equities continue their run and global tensions remain contained, Gold could see a deeper pullback. But any unexpected shock could quickly reverse this trend.

⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Renewed geopolitical tensions or global escalation
- Weak equity performance triggers risk-off flows

⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Continued strength in equities and risk-on appetite
- US data beats expectations, pushing real yields higher

– Alan

VIX – Fades Lower

The VIX continues to drift lower, now trading around $17 and holding below its 200 Day MA. This signals a market environment that remains broadly risk-on, with volatility expectations staying relatively muted.

Fundamentally, easing geopolitical tensions and speculation around new trade deals have reduced demand for hedging. At the same time, equities have pushed to fresh all-time highs, reinforcing the current low-volatility regime.

In my opinion, keeping an eye on the VIX is crucial. While low readings often coincide with strong equity performance, they can also precede sharp spikes in volatility — especially if markets are caught off guard.

- Alan

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EdgeFinder's Indices Scanner

The EdgeFinder’s NASDAQ scanner continues to flash a +7 Bullish score, supported by strong seasonality, trend momentum, and improving macro conditions. While short-term sentiment readings have softened slightly, the broader outlook remains positive.

Retail sentiment is heavily skewed, with nearly 90% of traders short — a strong contrarian indicator. Seasonality is favorable too, with a historical +2.53% average return in June.

Remaining US Data for this week:
Thursday: Jobless Claims & GDP
Friday: Consumer Spending, Core PCE Inflation – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
These releases could either reinforce the bullish trend or bring back volatility

In my opinion, while momentum favors bulls, chasing highs here is risky. Waiting for a pullback or clean support retest could offer better R:R

EUR/USD – 1.20000 Looks Closer and Closer

EUR/USD broke out above recent highs yesterday and is now trading near 1.17000. The pullback to the 1.14000 level was short-lived and quickly absorbed by strong buyers — suggesting momentum remains with the bulls.

Fundamentally, the Euro’s strength is being driven largely by broad-based Dollar weakness. Markets are increasingly pricing in the Fed’s first rate cut, with some speculation pointing to as early as July. That expectation has weighed on USD, boosting major counterparts like the Euro.

Looking ahead, US GDP and Jobless Claims are on deck this week. If GDP misses expectations or jobless claims tick higher, it could reinforce the case for a near-term rate cut — further pressuring the Dollar. On the flip side, a strong data beat could delay those expectations and stall EUR/USD’s rally.
In my opinion, if momentum holds and data aligns, a move toward 1.20000 is not off the table.

– Alan

US10Y – Reinforcing Dollar Weakness

The US 10-Year Yield is currently trading around 4.27%, comfortably below the 200 Day MA. This drop in yields supports the case for Fed easing, with below 4.5% levels often viewed as safe territory.

One of the main reasons rate cuts have been delayed is due to sticky yields. When long-term rates remain elevated, it becomes harder for the Fed to justify cutting — doing so while yields are rising risks signaling policy error. But with yields rolling over, the Fed may gain added confidence to proceed with cuts.

As of now, Fed Funds Futures are pricing in around 62 basis points of rate cuts over the next 12 months, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If yields remain suppressed or drift even lower — those expectations may strengthen, further pressuring the Dollar.

– Alan

EdgeFinder's GDP Growth Chart

Up next is the US Final GDP QoQ and the GDP Price Index — two key metrics that could influence the Fed’s tone heading into the next policy meeting.

Looking at the EdgeFinder’s GDP tracker, we’ve seen mixed growth surprises over the past year. The most recent print came in at -0.20% vs. forecast of -0.30% — a small beat, but still a negative growth figure that adds to the slowdown narrative heading into Q2.

This modest upside wasn’t enough to shift sentiment in a major way, but it did reinforce expectations that the Fed has room to start easing. Markets are currently pricing in around 62 basis points of rate cuts.
In my opinion, this sets the tone heading into tomorrow’s Core PCE inflation release — which could solidify the rate cut timeline or push it further out depending on the outcome.

- Alan

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