DXY – Breaking Out of the Downtrend
The Dollar caught a strong bid following this week’s FOMC meeting. Technically, DXY broke out above a downward trendline that’s been respected since February 2nd. Nearest resistance is at the $100.
Fundamentally, the Dollar’s strength is being supported by two factors. First, The Fed is choosing to hold rates steady while signaling that cuts are unlikely in the near term. Powell noted that inflation remains sticky and the committee would rather wait for more clarity. Second, the Dollar is benefiting from its traditional role as a safe haven — especially with tensions continuing in the Middle East.
In my opinion, the Fed does have data that supports easing. Giving me a cautious stance on steep upside
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Fed shifts tone or softens guidance in upcoming speeches
- Geopolitical tensions cool, reducing safe haven demand
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Fed reaffirms hawkish stance
- Continued global uncertainty drives capital into USD
– Alan
The Dollar caught a strong bid following this week’s FOMC meeting. Technically, DXY broke out above a downward trendline that’s been respected since February 2nd. Nearest resistance is at the $100.
Fundamentally, the Dollar’s strength is being supported by two factors. First, The Fed is choosing to hold rates steady while signaling that cuts are unlikely in the near term. Powell noted that inflation remains sticky and the committee would rather wait for more clarity. Second, the Dollar is benefiting from its traditional role as a safe haven — especially with tensions continuing in the Middle East.
In my opinion, the Fed does have data that supports easing. Giving me a cautious stance on steep upside
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Fed shifts tone or softens guidance in upcoming speeches
- Geopolitical tensions cool, reducing safe haven demand
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Fed reaffirms hawkish stance
- Continued global uncertainty drives capital into USD
– Alan
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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
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Media is too big
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Global News Helps Push Gold Higher📈
Chart Of The Day: XAU/USD
Chart Of The Day: XAU/USD
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EdgeFinder’s COT History
Happy Friday! We’re about to get a fresh round of COT filings. These reports give us a glimpse into how institutional players are positioned across major markets. While it’s not a crystal ball, it’s one of the few tools that shows where the “big money” is leaning.
We as traders use COT data to track changes in long vs short contracts across futures markets. The trend matters more than the absolute numbers. Sharp increases in short interest or steady declines in long exposure can hint at positioning shifts before price follows.
Looking at SP500’s COT chart on EdgeFinder, we’ve seen a clear change in sentiment:
- Long contracts dropped WoW
- Short contracts rose WoW
- Net positioning flipped aggressively bearish, now at -127K
While price is still near highs, institutions are clearly hedging or preparing for a pullback. Whether this results in a correction or not — that’s TBD.
📊 Want to monitor this weekly? EdgeFinder’s COT tab updates every Friday.
– Alan
Happy Friday! We’re about to get a fresh round of COT filings. These reports give us a glimpse into how institutional players are positioned across major markets. While it’s not a crystal ball, it’s one of the few tools that shows where the “big money” is leaning.
We as traders use COT data to track changes in long vs short contracts across futures markets. The trend matters more than the absolute numbers. Sharp increases in short interest or steady declines in long exposure can hint at positioning shifts before price follows.
Looking at SP500’s COT chart on EdgeFinder, we’ve seen a clear change in sentiment:
- Long contracts dropped WoW
- Short contracts rose WoW
- Net positioning flipped aggressively bearish, now at -127K
While price is still near highs, institutions are clearly hedging or preparing for a pullback. Whether this results in a correction or not — that’s TBD.
📊 Want to monitor this weekly? EdgeFinder’s COT tab updates every Friday.
– Alan
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NZD/USD – Textbook Breakout
NZD/USD had been riding a steady uptrend before stalling near the 0.60000–0.60600 zone. After a period of consolidation, price broke below the upward trendline, retested the level, and flushed lower — now approaching the 200 Day Moving Average.
While the structure was textbook from a technical standpoint, the move was fundamentally fueled. NZD is considered a risk-on currency, meaning it’s sensitive to global sentiment. Last week, the Fed struck a more hawkish tone, suggesting it may be best to hold rates steady for longer. That policy stance boosted the Dollar. Then, over the weekend, the US launched strikes on three Iranian targets — and markets opened Sunday in a clear risk-off tone. All of this added fuel to the downside in NZD/USD.
In my opinion, this setup is a clean example of when technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment align. The next key level of support sits at 0.58500, right near the 200 Day MA — a spot worth watching for possible reaction.
– Alan
NZD/USD had been riding a steady uptrend before stalling near the 0.60000–0.60600 zone. After a period of consolidation, price broke below the upward trendline, retested the level, and flushed lower — now approaching the 200 Day Moving Average.
While the structure was textbook from a technical standpoint, the move was fundamentally fueled. NZD is considered a risk-on currency, meaning it’s sensitive to global sentiment. Last week, the Fed struck a more hawkish tone, suggesting it may be best to hold rates steady for longer. That policy stance boosted the Dollar. Then, over the weekend, the US launched strikes on three Iranian targets — and markets opened Sunday in a clear risk-off tone. All of this added fuel to the downside in NZD/USD.
In my opinion, this setup is a clean example of when technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment align. The next key level of support sits at 0.58500, right near the 200 Day MA — a spot worth watching for possible reaction.
– Alan
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USOIL – Near-Term Ceiling Solidified?
OIL opened strong during Sunday’s session, rallying into previous highs around $77. However, price quickly reacted to that resistance zone and is now trading below the daily open.
Fundamentally, the weekend brought renewed geopolitical tensions. The US conducted targeted strikes in the Middle East, escalating concerns around regional instability. While this initially pushed oil higher — as traders priced in potential supply disruptions — the move faded as broader market sentiment shifted back to caution. The lack of follow-through from buyers may also reflect doubts about sustained conflict or oversupply fears weighing on the rally.
In my opinion, this could mark a short-term ceiling for oil unless further escalation develops. If we remain in a risk-off environment but without fresh headlines to shock supply chains, oil may continue to consolidate or even fade lower. If tensions flare again — we could see another test of the $77 mark or higher.
– Alan
OIL opened strong during Sunday’s session, rallying into previous highs around $77. However, price quickly reacted to that resistance zone and is now trading below the daily open.
Fundamentally, the weekend brought renewed geopolitical tensions. The US conducted targeted strikes in the Middle East, escalating concerns around regional instability. While this initially pushed oil higher — as traders priced in potential supply disruptions — the move faded as broader market sentiment shifted back to caution. The lack of follow-through from buyers may also reflect doubts about sustained conflict or oversupply fears weighing on the rally.
In my opinion, this could mark a short-term ceiling for oil unless further escalation develops. If we remain in a risk-off environment but without fresh headlines to shock supply chains, oil may continue to consolidate or even fade lower. If tensions flare again — we could see another test of the $77 mark or higher.
– Alan
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EdgeFinder’s Retail Sentiment – Retail Leans Long USD
Retail traders are currently leaning heavily in one direction — long USD. Instruments like USD/CHF, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY are seeing over 80% of retail positioning stacked on the long side. Meanwhile, equities and risk-on assets like NASDAQ, SPX500, and EUR/USD are showing extreme short positioning.
It’ll be interesting to see how this retail data lines up with this week’s upcoming COT report.
EdgeFinder will have the latest print soon!
Retail traders are currently leaning heavily in one direction — long USD. Instruments like USD/CHF, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY are seeing over 80% of retail positioning stacked on the long side. Meanwhile, equities and risk-on assets like NASDAQ, SPX500, and EUR/USD are showing extreme short positioning.
It’ll be interesting to see how this retail data lines up with this week’s upcoming COT report.
EdgeFinder will have the latest print soon!
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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
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This page will walk you through how to use the EdgeFinder & all of its unique features. Get the most of your free week by checking out our tour page
This page will walk you through how to use the EdgeFinder & all of its unique features. Get the most of your free week by checking out our tour page
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NASDAQ – Finally Made It
Despite months of uncertainty and a peak-to-trough drawdown of nearly 26%, the NASDAQ has officially reclaimed all-time highs — showcasing the resilience in US equities. Tech stocks have led the charge, propped up by AI optimism, stronger-than-expected earnings, and a "bad news is good news" macro tone that’s kept rate cut hopes alive.
Fundamentally, the rally comes amid easing inflation pressures, a still-strong labor market, and growing confidence that the Federal Reserve may engineer a soft landing. But that optimism will be put to the test this week.
We're heading into a loaded calendar and a decision point for the NASDAQ. Fed Chair Powell testifies, followed by US GDP and PCE inflation later this week — all potential catalysts for increased volatility. And with Israel-Iran tensions still looming this rally could either build momentum — or stall.
– Alan
Despite months of uncertainty and a peak-to-trough drawdown of nearly 26%, the NASDAQ has officially reclaimed all-time highs — showcasing the resilience in US equities. Tech stocks have led the charge, propped up by AI optimism, stronger-than-expected earnings, and a "bad news is good news" macro tone that’s kept rate cut hopes alive.
Fundamentally, the rally comes amid easing inflation pressures, a still-strong labor market, and growing confidence that the Federal Reserve may engineer a soft landing. But that optimism will be put to the test this week.
We're heading into a loaded calendar and a decision point for the NASDAQ. Fed Chair Powell testifies, followed by US GDP and PCE inflation later this week — all potential catalysts for increased volatility. And with Israel-Iran tensions still looming this rally could either build momentum — or stall.
– Alan
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DXY – Near the Lows
The Dollar is sitting on a key level of support, hovering near the bottom of its recent range. This area has historically seen buyers step in — but with markets on edge ahead of Powell and key data, the Dollar’s next move may come down to macro catalysts.
Fundamentally, the Dollar has softened in recent sessions following a wave of mixed US economic data and a slightly more cautious tone from the Fed. While Powell acknowledged that inflation remains elevated, he also emphasized the importance of incoming data — leaving rate cut timing uncertain. With GDP and PCE inflation data due this week, volatility could pick up fast. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks have kept a mild bid in the Dollar due to its safe haven status — though that edge may fade if tensions cool.
In my opinion, DXY is at a decision point. A bounce from here could reinforce a broader range-bound pattern — but a clean break lower opens the door for a deeper retracement into early-year lows.
The Dollar is sitting on a key level of support, hovering near the bottom of its recent range. This area has historically seen buyers step in — but with markets on edge ahead of Powell and key data, the Dollar’s next move may come down to macro catalysts.
Fundamentally, the Dollar has softened in recent sessions following a wave of mixed US economic data and a slightly more cautious tone from the Fed. While Powell acknowledged that inflation remains elevated, he also emphasized the importance of incoming data — leaving rate cut timing uncertain. With GDP and PCE inflation data due this week, volatility could pick up fast. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks have kept a mild bid in the Dollar due to its safe haven status — though that edge may fade if tensions cool.
In my opinion, DXY is at a decision point. A bounce from here could reinforce a broader range-bound pattern — but a clean break lower opens the door for a deeper retracement into early-year lows.
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⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Softer US GDP or PCE numbers undermine Fed’s hawkish stance
- Geopolitical tensions ease, reducing demand for USD as a safe haven
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Strong economic data or sticky inflation supports a higher-for-longer narrative
- Renewed risk-off sentiment brings buyers back into USD
– Alan
- Softer US GDP or PCE numbers undermine Fed’s hawkish stance
- Geopolitical tensions ease, reducing demand for USD as a safe haven
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Strong economic data or sticky inflation supports a higher-for-longer narrative
- Renewed risk-off sentiment brings buyers back into USD
– Alan
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