US Retail Sales – Consumers Pulling Back?
Retail Sales MoM came in at -0.9% vs. -0.6% forecast — a clear miss.
This confirms a short-term narrative: the consumer is starting to tighten up. Whether it’s due to higher borrowing costs, sticky inflation, or a cooling labor market — this data point suggests people are spending less. Not ideal if you're betting on continued economic resilience.
Markets are taking this as a signal that the Fed could stay dovish, or at the very least, avoid hawkish surprises. A weaker consumer generally weakens the Dollar, especially if more data confirms this trend.
I’m staying patient ahead of more Fed speak and jobless claims later this week before making any moves. Safe trading everyone!
- Alan
Retail Sales MoM came in at -0.9% vs. -0.6% forecast — a clear miss.
This confirms a short-term narrative: the consumer is starting to tighten up. Whether it’s due to higher borrowing costs, sticky inflation, or a cooling labor market — this data point suggests people are spending less. Not ideal if you're betting on continued economic resilience.
Markets are taking this as a signal that the Fed could stay dovish, or at the very least, avoid hawkish surprises. A weaker consumer generally weakens the Dollar, especially if more data confirms this trend.
I’m staying patient ahead of more Fed speak and jobless claims later this week before making any moves. Safe trading everyone!
- Alan
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DXY – At a Decision Point
The Dollar is hovering near a downward trendline that dates back to February 2nd. Sitting right on that trendline is the 50-Day Moving Average. Price action has stalled for now, just ahead of a major news day in the US. Holding below the trendline could signal continued bearish momentum, while a break above might hint at a short-term rally.
US jobless claims came in as expected. Later today, the Fed is set to announce its rate decision, which is widely anticipated to remain unchanged. The market will also be closely watching the FOMC press conference, with particular attention on the Fed's tone.
In my opinion, I’ll be watching out for potential fakeouts and instead waiting for a clear continuation in either direction.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- A dovish Fed
- The US staying out of the Israel-Iran conflict
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- A hawkish Fed, or signals that rates will be held higher for longer
- The US stepping into the Israel-Iran conflict
– Alan
The Dollar is hovering near a downward trendline that dates back to February 2nd. Sitting right on that trendline is the 50-Day Moving Average. Price action has stalled for now, just ahead of a major news day in the US. Holding below the trendline could signal continued bearish momentum, while a break above might hint at a short-term rally.
US jobless claims came in as expected. Later today, the Fed is set to announce its rate decision, which is widely anticipated to remain unchanged. The market will also be closely watching the FOMC press conference, with particular attention on the Fed's tone.
In my opinion, I’ll be watching out for potential fakeouts and instead waiting for a clear continuation in either direction.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- A dovish Fed
- The US staying out of the Israel-Iran conflict
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- A hawkish Fed, or signals that rates will be held higher for longer
- The US stepping into the Israel-Iran conflict
– Alan
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VIX – Volatility on Watch
The VIX, often used as a gauge for market fear or volatility, is currently sitting near levels last seen during the Israel-Iran spike. Elevated VIX readings typically point to investor uncertainty and risk-off sentiment - often leading to pullbacks in equities, rotation into safe havens, or increased market choppiness.
If the VIX breaks out higher, it could be a signal that fear is ramping up again. This might trigger more selling pressure across risk assets, and possibly strengthen defensive sectors or assets like Gold, CHF, JPY, or the Dollar.
On the other hand, if the VIX fades lower, it could suggest that fear is cooling off and investors are leaning back into risk. This might support equities and risk-on plays - but could also mean markets get a little too comfortable, too quickly.
In my opinion, it's important to watch how price reacts around this zone. A clear move in either direction could offer valuable insight into short-term sentiment.
- Alan
The VIX, often used as a gauge for market fear or volatility, is currently sitting near levels last seen during the Israel-Iran spike. Elevated VIX readings typically point to investor uncertainty and risk-off sentiment - often leading to pullbacks in equities, rotation into safe havens, or increased market choppiness.
If the VIX breaks out higher, it could be a signal that fear is ramping up again. This might trigger more selling pressure across risk assets, and possibly strengthen defensive sectors or assets like Gold, CHF, JPY, or the Dollar.
On the other hand, if the VIX fades lower, it could suggest that fear is cooling off and investors are leaning back into risk. This might support equities and risk-on plays - but could also mean markets get a little too comfortable, too quickly.
In my opinion, it's important to watch how price reacts around this zone. A clear move in either direction could offer valuable insight into short-term sentiment.
- Alan
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US Economic Heatmap - Leading up to FOMC
A mixed picture. Retail Sales MoM missed expectations, suggesting softer consumer demand heading into the summer. Both Manufacturing and Services PMIs also came in weak, reinforcing concerns that growth may be stalling. While NFP and wage growth surprised to the upside, forward-looking data like ADP and MBA Mortgage Apps (-15.1%) show clear signs of cooling across employment and housing.
Fresh Fed commentary just dropped, they now project higher inflation and slightly weaker growth than it did back in March. Their PCE estimate for year-end was raised from 2.7% to 3.0%, while unemployment is expected to climb slightly to 4.5%. Despite this, they still see the economy expanding at a solid pace and labor conditions remaining firm. Rate cut expectations for September jumped from 60% to 71%, and the market is still pricing in two cuts for 2025.
In my opinion, this is a setup where the Fed is laying the groundwork for easing without spooking the market.
- Alan
A mixed picture. Retail Sales MoM missed expectations, suggesting softer consumer demand heading into the summer. Both Manufacturing and Services PMIs also came in weak, reinforcing concerns that growth may be stalling. While NFP and wage growth surprised to the upside, forward-looking data like ADP and MBA Mortgage Apps (-15.1%) show clear signs of cooling across employment and housing.
Fresh Fed commentary just dropped, they now project higher inflation and slightly weaker growth than it did back in March. Their PCE estimate for year-end was raised from 2.7% to 3.0%, while unemployment is expected to climb slightly to 4.5%. Despite this, they still see the economy expanding at a solid pace and labor conditions remaining firm. Rate cut expectations for September jumped from 60% to 71%, and the market is still pricing in two cuts for 2025.
In my opinion, this is a setup where the Fed is laying the groundwork for easing without spooking the market.
- Alan
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⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Miss in German PPI
- Decline in French Business Climate
- Decline in Eurozone Consumer Confidence
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- U.S. does not get involved in war
- Beat in German PPI
- Beat in French Business Climate
- Beat in Eurozone Consumer Confidence
– Alan
- Miss in German PPI
- Decline in French Business Climate
- Decline in Eurozone Consumer Confidence
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- U.S. does not get involved in war
- Beat in German PPI
- Beat in French Business Climate
- Beat in Eurozone Consumer Confidence
– Alan
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EUR/USD – Continued Slide or Dip?
Euro, along with other dollar counterparts, gave back gains after yesterday’s FOMC and rising questions on whether the US will step in to fight in the Iran-Israel war. Most of the losses were tied to dollar appreciation rather than euro weakness.
Fundamentally, recent developments have strengthened the USD for now. Fed Chair Powell mentioned it may be best to hold rates, Trump has been vocal about his support for Israel, inflation concerns remain “sticky,” and Norway delivered its first surprise rate cut yesterday.
In my opinion, the euro is at a decision point that could go either way. If the slide continues, nearest support lies at 1.14000. If we break and hold above the downward trendline and key support level, nearest resistance lies at 1.16000.
Euro, along with other dollar counterparts, gave back gains after yesterday’s FOMC and rising questions on whether the US will step in to fight in the Iran-Israel war. Most of the losses were tied to dollar appreciation rather than euro weakness.
Fundamentally, recent developments have strengthened the USD for now. Fed Chair Powell mentioned it may be best to hold rates, Trump has been vocal about his support for Israel, inflation concerns remain “sticky,” and Norway delivered its first surprise rate cut yesterday.
In my opinion, the euro is at a decision point that could go either way. If the slide continues, nearest support lies at 1.14000. If we break and hold above the downward trendline and key support level, nearest resistance lies at 1.16000.
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NZD/USD – A Textbookl Descent
Similar to the euro and other dollar counterparts, the NZD saw a decline due to dollar strength. It broke through a key level of support, slipped below the 50 Day MA, and fell beneath its upward trendline.
The same fundamental variables weighed on the NZD. In addition, both NZD and AUD are considered risk-on currencies. The unanswered question of whether the US will step in to aid Israel added fuel to the NZD’s decline. In times of geopolitical tension, money tends to pivot from risk-on to risk-off assets.
In my opinion, the NZD could find its way to the nearest support and 200 Day MA at 0.58600 if conditions remain the same. On the contrary, if the US stays out of the conflict and investors regain a risk-on appetite, this could be a fakeout—causing the NZD to revisit recent highs.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- US involvement in war
- Safe haven appetite
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- US does not get involved in war
- Return of risk-on appetite
Similar to the euro and other dollar counterparts, the NZD saw a decline due to dollar strength. It broke through a key level of support, slipped below the 50 Day MA, and fell beneath its upward trendline.
The same fundamental variables weighed on the NZD. In addition, both NZD and AUD are considered risk-on currencies. The unanswered question of whether the US will step in to aid Israel added fuel to the NZD’s decline. In times of geopolitical tension, money tends to pivot from risk-on to risk-off assets.
In my opinion, the NZD could find its way to the nearest support and 200 Day MA at 0.58600 if conditions remain the same. On the contrary, if the US stays out of the conflict and investors regain a risk-on appetite, this could be a fakeout—causing the NZD to revisit recent highs.
⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- US involvement in war
- Safe haven appetite
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- US does not get involved in war
- Return of risk-on appetite
❤14👍4💯3
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🔥19👍3
EdgeFinder’s Carry Trade Scanner
Most traders overlook how interest rate differentials can affect their positions—especially when holding trades overnight.
Instead of guessing, the Carry Trade Scanner does the math for you—analyzing which pairs pay you to hold them (positive swap) and which ones cost you.
📉 Just this week:
- Switzerland cut rates again
- Japan held rates flat
- UK held steady
- U.S. and Canada signaled potential changes ahead
- Surprise cut from Norway
All of this affects your overnight holding costs —and could mean the difference between a profitable trade or a slow bleed from swap fees.
Whether you’re a swing trader or just curious about yield advantages, this scanner helps you spot opportunities and risks before they show up in your PnL.
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Most traders overlook how interest rate differentials can affect their positions—especially when holding trades overnight.
Instead of guessing, the Carry Trade Scanner does the math for you—analyzing which pairs pay you to hold them (positive swap) and which ones cost you.
📉 Just this week:
- Switzerland cut rates again
- Japan held rates flat
- UK held steady
- U.S. and Canada signaled potential changes ahead
- Surprise cut from Norway
All of this affects your overnight holding costs —and could mean the difference between a profitable trade or a slow bleed from swap fees.
Whether you’re a swing trader or just curious about yield advantages, this scanner helps you spot opportunities and risks before they show up in your PnL.
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GOLD – Waiting on the Next Move
Gold is currently drifting between two key zones, with price action stalling slightly lower. Recent reactions suggest sellers are sitting around the $3,400 level, while buyers continue to show strength near $3,200.
Fundamentally, Gold’s upside has remained capped following this week’s FOMC meeting. The Fed opted to hold rates steady, emphasizing the need for further clarity before making any adjustments. One of their concerns: potential inflationary pressures stemming from new tariff policies. With the Fed’s tone now public, traders are left digesting what comes next.
In my opinion, Gold’s next move could be closely tied to developments in the Israel-Iran conflict. Further escalation may cause a surge in safe haven demand, which could give Gold a strong bid. Although some reports suggest a decision or resolution may come within the next two weeks, tensions could spike at any moment.
Gold is currently drifting between two key zones, with price action stalling slightly lower. Recent reactions suggest sellers are sitting around the $3,400 level, while buyers continue to show strength near $3,200.
Fundamentally, Gold’s upside has remained capped following this week’s FOMC meeting. The Fed opted to hold rates steady, emphasizing the need for further clarity before making any adjustments. One of their concerns: potential inflationary pressures stemming from new tariff policies. With the Fed’s tone now public, traders are left digesting what comes next.
In my opinion, Gold’s next move could be closely tied to developments in the Israel-Iran conflict. Further escalation may cause a surge in safe haven demand, which could give Gold a strong bid. Although some reports suggest a decision or resolution may come within the next two weeks, tensions could spike at any moment.
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Key charts to gauge risk-on/risk-off sentiment: OIL, VIX, DXY, CHF, JPY
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- De-escalation or diplomatic negotiations begin between Israel and Iran
- Broader risk-off sentiment takes hold and boosts safe havens
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Talks fall apart or conflict escalates
- Risk-on appetite returns, pressuring safe haven demand
– Alan
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- De-escalation or diplomatic negotiations begin between Israel and Iran
- Broader risk-off sentiment takes hold and boosts safe havens
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Talks fall apart or conflict escalates
- Risk-on appetite returns, pressuring safe haven demand
– Alan
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