I've noticed a lot of times when stock markets are going up, more people ask the question: "Why not just buy and hold?"

Recency bias is a very strong force in markets.

But remember: periods of poor performance in stocks do occur - and you could go a decade (or even multiple in the case of the great depression) before even returning to breakeven in your investments.

DXY Daily Chart:

Good morning traders! Moody's downgrades the US credit rating...

Dollar lower this morning, gold higher, as investors sell US assets in response.

Personally I don't think this will have too much of a lasting impact, as investors everywhere already knew that the national debt problem in the US was a big one.

Dollar may drift lower in the meantime. Resistance held at 101.50 on DXY. I think support should hold at the previous lows around 98.50

- Nick

Unemployment rate, last 4 years.

Something to note here: employment is still relatively strong, relative to historical averages around 5.7%.

Remember: the economy can handle a lot of stuff (including massive inflation in 2021-2022! ) as long as people remain employed and the economy is growing.

- Nick

By the way - if you'd like to try out our software tools to scan fundamental data & market sentiment data, apply for a trial here:

https://form.jotform.com/233167835217055

Gold daily chart:

I am still neutral, but we are definitely at a decision point here in price action.

Are we headed back to highs, or down towards 3k?

US economy holding up ok. Trade deals looking promising.

But, uncertainty is still high - and Trump is a live wire. Momentum on the weekly chart still favors bulls.

I'm watching close, but staying on the sidelines at this time. - Nick

🚨 Meet Our New Analyst: Alan Perez
We’re excited to welcome Alan Perez—Lead Trader & A1 Trading Show Contributor—to the VIP Discord! (Starting June 2nd)

About Alan:
📈 Style: Fundamental & Technical Trend Trader
⏱️ Sessions: New York, Asia & London
📊 Focus: Swing & Intra-Day FX Trades (G10 Currencies)

Alan is a swing and intra-day trader in the spot FX market, focusing on G10 currencies. He blends fundamental and technical analysis to guide his trades—paying close attention to sentiment, market dynamics, and big news events to catch trends.

Before trading full-time, Alan worked at JPMorgan Chase, helping clients navigate markets and manage risk. He holds the FINRA SIE, Series 6, and NASAA Series 63 certifications.

His goal is to be a trusted voice for retail traders, offering clear analysis and full transparency inside the A1 Trading community.

🔗 Check out Alan’s YouTube channel here

🎟 Want access to Alan’s trades when they launch?
Join the VIP community and get 10% off with code: TGVIP
👉 Join here

*Note: Alan's trade alerts begin June 2, 2025. Secure your spot now to be ready when they go live.

Fun fact about Alan: He’s been a long-time supporter of A1 Trading—and in March, he even flew in to attend our live trading event with OANDA. We’re thrilled to have him on the team and excited that he’ll be sharing free content in both our Telegram and Discord channels.

USD/CHF finds support 0.83200, creating a new higher low on the Daily.
The Swiss weakened at 0.83200, a previous resistance level when investors flocked to safe havens. Price targeted the May 11th weekend gap and quickly snapped upward. The gap was left unfilled on the spot and futures market (by 0.9-2 pips depending on the spot broker) The SXY index filled the gap.

Last Friday Moody’s downgraded the US ratings to AA1 from AAA. It’s important to note that S&P and Fitch have also downgraded the US from AAA to AA1. In my opinion, the downgrade from Moody’s doesn’t change overall sentiment gradually. What it does mean is – US debtholders will seek a higher yield for holding a “riskier” asset. US10Y jumped 2% during the open.

My interpretation is that the Fed may be more hesitant to cut rates with yields remaining afloat. One of concerns for the Fed is that yields stay up while they cut rates.

🔴 Risks to consider for bulls:
- More uncertainty on the US dollar caused by a lack of tariff developments
- Continued upbeat readings for US economic data, giving the Fed confidence to continue the easing cycle

🔴 Risks to consider for bears:
- USDCHF holds above the support zone
- Tariff developments with more countries and solidified deals

-Alan

EUR/USD tests key resistance @ 1.12880 & 50 Day Moving Average
Euro dominated in the Asia session after reaching a tentative agreement with the UK regarding defense and security, an improvement to their relationship post-brexit. Remember, in early April, the Euro rallied off of the EU’s 500bln commitment to defense spending.

Overnight the Euro met strong sellers at the previous support, 1.12800, and the 50 Day Moving Average. Sellers stepped in creating an inverted bearish hammer on the 4H, followed by a strong bearish bodied candle.

In my opinion, this was an opportunity for buyers to step in and take control of the bullish trend. The next level of support is the 1.08000 handle. If buyers get above the 50 Day Moving Average, the Euro could revisit the 1.14000 handle.

🔴 Risks to consider for bears:
- A solidified agreement between the EU and UK, specifically about British companies being able to participate in major EU defense contracts – creating growth opportunities for the two nations.
- Indications that the EU is slowing their rate cutting cycle. This week Ifo Business Climate and HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash will be released

-Alan

Gold Daily Chart:

Recapturing resistance here. Technicals look promising in the short run, possible retest of the highs may be incoming.

National debt concerns, and Trumps "big beautiful bill" are causing some anxiety on capitol hill.

I remain neutral personally, no trades here - but watching.

- Nick

For those that didn't grab it yesterday, here is the fundamental analysis course.

Yes, it's 100% free.

Don't take it for granted!

https://form.jotform.com/242024771293151

🏆 2025 TRADING RESULTS— Update!
Get access to our trades shared exclusively in our VIP group! If you want to receive our precise entries, exits, and in-depth analysis for every trade, now’s the time to join!

✨ Don’t miss out—Get 10% OFF VIP Signals now!
Use code TGVIP to claim your discount here: Join Us Now

❓ Have questions? We're here to help!
Feel free to reach out to us: Message Us

Dow Jones 30, Daily Chart:

Price has been pretty much straight up since April, becoming a bit stretched in the short run in my opinion.

Looking for pullbacks, but still targeting a move back to all time highs.

Looking very strong overall! - Nick

The Mag 7 Rebounce Continues...

Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and others continue to rip higher.

With the recent developments in trade deals globally, investors seem to be rushing back into the "old reliable" trade.

While these powerhouse companies are always on my buy list on dips, I think they are a bit overstretched in the short run.

I am watching for pullbacks.

- Nick