S&P500 Daily Chart:
Path of least resistance looks higher. Bulls in full control now, taking out several key levels of resistance, and rallying a massive 20% from the lows.
Bull run seems like it wants to continue.
However, while I am bullish - I think a pullback is very reasonable, and what I personally will be looking for in order to enter long positions.
China x USA trade negotiations went very positively, boosting expectations that global trade will not be flying off a cliff! While there is still potential ramifications from tariffs, the worst case scenario seems to be more confidently behind us - driving risk assets and the US dollar higher.
- Nick
Path of least resistance looks higher. Bulls in full control now, taking out several key levels of resistance, and rallying a massive 20% from the lows.
Bull run seems like it wants to continue.
However, while I am bullish - I think a pullback is very reasonable, and what I personally will be looking for in order to enter long positions.
China x USA trade negotiations went very positively, boosting expectations that global trade will not be flying off a cliff! While there is still potential ramifications from tariffs, the worst case scenario seems to be more confidently behind us - driving risk assets and the US dollar higher.
- Nick
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Gold Daily Chart:
With the relieved trade tensions between the US & China, gold took a major hit.
Remember: gold typically performs well when people are nervous globally, but in this case it works in reverse: confidence restored = less demand for gold as an alternative.
While we sit at major support in wat has been a very strong uptrend, I personally remain neutral and unwilling to take longs.
- Nick
With the relieved trade tensions between the US & China, gold took a major hit.
Remember: gold typically performs well when people are nervous globally, but in this case it works in reverse: confidence restored = less demand for gold as an alternative.
While we sit at major support in wat has been a very strong uptrend, I personally remain neutral and unwilling to take longs.
- Nick
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USD Daily Chart (DXY)
Reminder that tomorrow is CPI day!
While trade deals are certainly dominating the market right now, let's not forget the macro.
If we get a "hot" CPI print, we could see the dollar strength - pushing off further the possibility of fed cutting rates
If we get a "cool" CPI print, we could see the dollar soften. However, I see limited downside at this time based on the trade deals progress we're seeing.
Risk is to the upside, in my personal view.
- Nick
Reminder that tomorrow is CPI day!
While trade deals are certainly dominating the market right now, let's not forget the macro.
If we get a "hot" CPI print, we could see the dollar strength - pushing off further the possibility of fed cutting rates
If we get a "cool" CPI print, we could see the dollar soften. However, I see limited downside at this time based on the trade deals progress we're seeing.
Risk is to the upside, in my personal view.
- Nick
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NASDAQ Daily Chart:
The win streak continues! Price breaking out nicely here, off of today's cooler than expected CPI results.
Markets expected 2.4% CPI year over year, but instead saw 2.3% - a welcomed surprise!
This boosts probabilities that we could see a fed rate cut sooner, and most risk assets are pushing higher today.
- Nick
The win streak continues! Price breaking out nicely here, off of today's cooler than expected CPI results.
Markets expected 2.4% CPI year over year, but instead saw 2.3% - a welcomed surprise!
This boosts probabilities that we could see a fed rate cut sooner, and most risk assets are pushing higher today.
- Nick
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US OIL Daily Chart:
Oil tests key resistance at the 64.50 level.
With trade tensions smoothening a bit, and economies potentially less likely to go into a recession, oil has rebounded sharply.
I'm bullish on this one, looking for a breakout above this level for possible break / retest entries.
- Nick
Oil tests key resistance at the 64.50 level.
With trade tensions smoothening a bit, and economies potentially less likely to go into a recession, oil has rebounded sharply.
I'm bullish on this one, looking for a breakout above this level for possible break / retest entries.
- Nick
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My friend (and the very popular!) Tori Trades is stopping by our office for an in person interview this evening.
I would love to ask you guys for your help in preparing some of your top questions for her.
I will pick a few for our conversation, and your question may be featured in the upcoming video!
If you'd like to submit a question for us to discuss in the podcast episode, please leave your question here:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSca_pkK7UpYfpd37QjgixexVLgwF1fgR4iLyuQ-Q2JENBMDBQ/viewform?usp=header
- Nick
I would love to ask you guys for your help in preparing some of your top questions for her.
I will pick a few for our conversation, and your question may be featured in the upcoming video!
If you'd like to submit a question for us to discuss in the podcast episode, please leave your question here:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSca_pkK7UpYfpd37QjgixexVLgwF1fgR4iLyuQ-Q2JENBMDBQ/viewform?usp=header
- Nick
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Gold Daily Chart:
Technicals here are fascinating. Let's go through them together!
1. It appears we are going to close (for the first time in a while) below some significant support around 3200 an ounce. This suggests we may be trending down.
2. A key trendline above current price has been broken, and a longer term trendline on gold still remains a good distance below currently price... suggesting a retest could lead to further downside
3. The 200 day moving average may be acting as a magnet, and could suggest a larger decline
Technicals: bearish!
Fundamentals: Mixed.
- Nick
Technicals here are fascinating. Let's go through them together!
1. It appears we are going to close (for the first time in a while) below some significant support around 3200 an ounce. This suggests we may be trending down.
2. A key trendline above current price has been broken, and a longer term trendline on gold still remains a good distance below currently price... suggesting a retest could lead to further downside
3. The 200 day moving average may be acting as a magnet, and could suggest a larger decline
Technicals: bearish!
Fundamentals: Mixed.
- Nick
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USDJPY Daily Chart:
After 3 days of pulling back, we're seeing UJ retest a key longer term trendline, which also lines up with a previous break of resistance.
EdgeFinder also has a bullish bias on this pair, with some weakness in economic data out of Japan recently as the drag on Yen's economic score.
I'll be watching for possible longs.
- Nick
After 3 days of pulling back, we're seeing UJ retest a key longer term trendline, which also lines up with a previous break of resistance.
EdgeFinder also has a bullish bias on this pair, with some weakness in economic data out of Japan recently as the drag on Yen's economic score.
I'll be watching for possible longs.
- Nick
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👍23❤4😁4
Gold Daily Chart:
Bears still in control for now. 200 day moving average still looks like it is being targeted.
Today we are seeing a sharp reversal at the previous level of support we saw at 3220 on gold. In my view, technicals continue to look bearish in the short term.
Long term, I do believe there is probably some great buying opportunities at the 200 day moving average level, which gives us another 10-11% down from here.
- Nick
Bears still in control for now. 200 day moving average still looks like it is being targeted.
Today we are seeing a sharp reversal at the previous level of support we saw at 3220 on gold. In my view, technicals continue to look bearish in the short term.
Long term, I do believe there is probably some great buying opportunities at the 200 day moving average level, which gives us another 10-11% down from here.
- Nick
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WARNING:
Put to call ratio has (for the first time in months) suggested that sentiment has become euphoric.
What this means:
Traders are much more aggressively buying calls, expecting further upside for stock market indices.
I personally view this as a contrarian bearish signal to stay cautious on stocks for the time being.
- Nick
Put to call ratio has (for the first time in months) suggested that sentiment has become euphoric.
What this means:
Traders are much more aggressively buying calls, expecting further upside for stock market indices.
I personally view this as a contrarian bearish signal to stay cautious on stocks for the time being.
- Nick
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