Forwarded from A1 TRADING | Stocks & Options
$XLV Daily Chart, Bullish (short put) position:
Healthcare stocks are on the move!
Do we finally have a breakout forming? This is one of my favorite contrarian setups for 2025, as people have been heavily selling healthcare names out of fear of the Trump administration.
In my opinion, healthcare stocks have been oversold and the actual changes put into place by the new administration will be less impactful than feared by investors.
- Nick
Healthcare stocks are on the move!
Do we finally have a breakout forming? This is one of my favorite contrarian setups for 2025, as people have been heavily selling healthcare names out of fear of the Trump administration.
In my opinion, healthcare stocks have been oversold and the actual changes put into place by the new administration will be less impactful than feared by investors.
- Nick
The dollar is still getting shorted by the crowd while indices, oil and gold are in the long camp. SPX, UK100 and USDCHF are the only assets that are mixed in retail sentiment.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Personal consumption has been muted according to the latest PCE numbers, but that is likely due to consumers spending more on the basic food, energy and housing costs that continue to rise. This number could be a precursor to stagnant or higher CPI data tomorrow excluding Core CPI. Core does not take into account oil prices, but the Fed's main gauge is Core. It seems like data could be mixed tomorrow and the markets could remain directionless.
-Frank
-Frank
Despite the Fed's initial aggressive stance on cutting interest rates, the 10 year treasury yield is running back up towards the peak of the Fed's rate hikes. At the same time, we are 133 days into the yield curve eversion meaning the curve is no longer inverted. The divergence is growing steadily as well, as the 10 year yield remains much higher than the 2 year so far. This move has almost negated everything the Fed worked to unwind over the past several months of interest rate cuts.
The main action to bring rates down is cutting rates, and this week's CPI data will show us whether or not another cut is a good idea.
-Frank
The main action to bring rates down is cutting rates, and this week's CPI data will show us whether or not another cut is a good idea.
-Frank
What you need to know this week:
PPI numbers on Tuesday
CPI numbers on Wednesday
If inflation is higher than expected, the 10 year yield continues higher, and with it the dollar. This puts pressure on risk assets and precious metals.
If inflation is cooler than expected, risk assets & precious metals will likely rip.
Will we see the momentum break on the USD? - Nick
PPI numbers on Tuesday
CPI numbers on Wednesday
If inflation is higher than expected, the 10 year yield continues higher, and with it the dollar. This puts pressure on risk assets and precious metals.
If inflation is cooler than expected, risk assets & precious metals will likely rip.
Will we see the momentum break on the USD? - Nick
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This week will be a very volatile one.
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This commodity can no longer be ignored as the EdgeFinder places its score as high as +14 this morning, one of the strongest readings on our list for some time. Some factors that can affect oilβs score today will be from trend if we get a pullback at these highs or inflation if CPI comes in missing expectations. Since oilβs inflation score is already +2, a miss is the only event that can change the score. If we do not see a miss, oilβs price may break through the $77 top and reach towards $80.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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CPI came in line with expectations except Core, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Although inflation is increasing, the market took it as bullish initially because it was as expected. Core might be the catalyst that keeps stocks bullish for now. Lower core prices combined with a better jobs report last week might be ripe for risk appetite.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Stocks are trading slightly higher in the futures market as we are 15 minutes away from the first CPI report of the year. There is nothing to interpret from this morningβs green candle as the numbers have not come out yet. What the market needs to see is a miss from Core and y/y CPI. These are two factors that can help get SPX500 back to a bullish reading. A hotter CPI report could break the index back to the lows of November of last year. If we get a miss, price may attempt another test at the top of the bullish flag pattern on the 1D timeframe.
- Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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- Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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