A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures
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Retail sentiment in the tech market indicates fear in the overall market. If the market sells off, we could see the ratio get much higher which would mean the market is too fearful. Fears will likely escalate from now until Friday morning.
-Frank

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Over the past 6 weeks, gold has seen a net positive change in positions which could mean that investors are prepping for a miss in labor data this week. The change in long contracts is low, but the change in shorts is much lower.
-Frank

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$EURUSD - Daily Downtrend Spiral...

As the dollar continues to strengthen, the EURO continues to struggle.

Increased tariffs, and widening interest rate differentials (fed holding rates, Europe cutting rates) could continue to weigh on this pair.

Technically, price is eyeing the previous low.

Will NFP be the catalyst to continue this downtrend?

- Nick
EdgeFinder has been (and continues) to favor USD strength.

Check out this very uniform reading the EdgeFinder has been signaling.
Unemployment rates are still elevated and are expected to stay this way for the next month or so. It seems that these rates are likely not going to go under 4% any time soon as the overall trend has taken us up by 0.50% from last January.
-Frank

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Had to close gold trades this morning after a strong jobs report. This seems like a good sign for the stock market now that NFP is higher and wages declined as expected. Although NFP had a substantial beat in expectations, levels are still relatively modest in comparison to the last 12 months. Revisions didn't move enough to cause any sort of stir in that regard, and I think the biggest impact in price direction today will be from unemployment rate dropping. This is exactly what investors want to see, so I look at this stock market sell off initial reaction as a potential long opportunity.

- Frank

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$BTCUSD Daily Chart:

Price seems to be holding steady at the $90k mark, and at the trendline support drawn through the Trump election news. Technically I think we are due for a bounce, but will stop out if we fail to hold support.

Fundamentally, the US economy looks strong - which could mean extra money in the pockets of consumers, and into BTC. However - if inflation numbers this week spook risk assets on rising interest rates, bitcoin will likely fall alongside the others.

Watching close!

- Nick
Bitcoin's price wavers Monday morning before PPI news tomorrow and CPI on Wednesday. It seems that investors are worried about the treasury bond yields reaching higher with the US10Y nearing 5% again. Although 2024 marked the first downtrend in interest rates, the yield has come back up to its original position before the rate cuts. This move has negated all of the Fed's progress and is now stirring fear in the markets.

A lower CPI number will likely be a cause for relief in the stocks market and for risk assets like Bitcoin in general. The market has dropped about 6% on the day before it recovered most of its price from the lows. It's probably too soon to expect a pull back right now as prices will most likely remain choppy for the next week.
-Frank

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With higher energy prices, expectations of lower inflation in the coming quarters seems less likely. CPI's biggest hinderances right now are elevated housing costs, food costs and oil costs. Tomorrow's CPI y/y does have a chance of coming in lower due to the lagging effect of prices on inflation, but elevated oil prices over time will probably cause higher CPI in the future. Price is up against a previous top at $78 and could retrace here, but momentum remains strong so far. A break in this level could result in a test higher towards $80s range.

-Frank

Data from the EdgeFinder
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