Gold is up in premarket trading as we gear for the most important news of the day of ADP employment. This month, the private sector is expected to drop from December’s reading of 146K to 139K. The reason gold is up is due to the anticipation of weaker jobs numbers as the metal looks like it wants to test the top of that wedge pattern again. This week will likely be the deciding factor in gold’s break on the top or bottom of the wedge. But Friday provides the last piece to the labor puzzle.
-Frank

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The SPX is making lower highs after each attempt at $6,000. Today’s ADP number came in lower than expected at 122K marking a relatively big miss in expectations. Stocks are relatively unchanged, however. Being close to the highs has stalled price action for the time being, and index scores remain neutral. The trend score is actually a -2 now suggesting the index has rounded off and may be gearing for a break under support. For now, the SPX is stuck between $5,880 and the all time highs.
- Frank

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Gold is still rising after private payrolls come in at a miss to start off the year. The downtrend in jobs data is diverging against the inflationary data. Although not a clear enough sign yet, the market's fear of stagflation will only build with every tick lower on NFP, ADP, wage growth - and every tick higher on unemployment rates.

On the other hand, I can see gold slowly build up demand only to dump off later on because I've seen that happen before. And this week's labor results are not complete without Friday's numbers. But what I see now is a bounce from the bottom of a wedge pattern and turn back higher. It seems that a test at the top of the wedge pattern could pan out before any major moves happen next. So I may be looking to go long XAUUSD to the $2,670-80s and managing the trade from there.
- Frank

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Adding to the confusion and uncertainty, the SPX500 is now a bullish score on the EdgeFinder along with the other US indices. The change happened solely based the put/call ratio shifting retail sentiment's score from greed to fear. This was a relatively sharp move from 0.78 to 0.95 indicating that the number of puts to every long has increased. The market was a little to greedy until yesterday as fears churned in anticipation of an NFP miss. This is a pivotal level here on the 1D timeframe. Price is stuck between $5,800 and $6,000. A beat could spark another attempt at the highs while a miss could could break the support level.
-Frank

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