Stocks, dollar, bonds, oil and gold are in demand for smart money according to last week's COT report. Meanwhile, NZD, JPY, AUD and ZAR have been sold. Despite the sell off we've seen in the stock markets, smart money is buying up risk assets.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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🚨 The Biggest Barrier Holding Back Traders
After years of trading, creating content, and connecting with thousands of traders, I’ve noticed one recurring issue that holds so many back from success: Unrealistic expectations.
Here’s the reality:
No one expects to become a doctor or engineer in six months. But somehow, social media has led many people to believe they can master trading in that time and start making life-changing money.
The truth? Trading is a skill that takes years to develop. It’s about steady progress, not quick riches. Even when you become profitable, consistent returns are modest, not exponential. For example, making 2–5% per month on a $100,000 account is excellent, but that’s $2,000–$5,000—not the 15–20% returns many expect.
Even the best hedge fund managers don’t achieve those kinds of numbers consistently. Trying to force unrealistic returns is how most traders blow their accounts.
So, ask yourself:
Are you here because you love the process, or are you chasing fast money? If you’re in it for the long haul, here’s my advice:
1️⃣ Take your time—trading is a marathon, not a sprint.
2️⃣ Set realistic goals and focus on small, consistent wins.
3️⃣ Embrace the learning process.
Trading is tough, but for those willing to commit, the rewards go far beyond money. Let 2025 be the year you focus on growth and real progress! 🙌
- Nick
After years of trading, creating content, and connecting with thousands of traders, I’ve noticed one recurring issue that holds so many back from success: Unrealistic expectations.
Here’s the reality:
No one expects to become a doctor or engineer in six months. But somehow, social media has led many people to believe they can master trading in that time and start making life-changing money.
The truth? Trading is a skill that takes years to develop. It’s about steady progress, not quick riches. Even when you become profitable, consistent returns are modest, not exponential. For example, making 2–5% per month on a $100,000 account is excellent, but that’s $2,000–$5,000—not the 15–20% returns many expect.
Even the best hedge fund managers don’t achieve those kinds of numbers consistently. Trying to force unrealistic returns is how most traders blow their accounts.
So, ask yourself:
Are you here because you love the process, or are you chasing fast money? If you’re in it for the long haul, here’s my advice:
1️⃣ Take your time—trading is a marathon, not a sprint.
2️⃣ Set realistic goals and focus on small, consistent wins.
3️⃣ Embrace the learning process.
Trading is tough, but for those willing to commit, the rewards go far beyond money. Let 2025 be the year you focus on growth and real progress! 🙌
- Nick
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USOil is up over 1% today as uncertainties rise in the markets and demand grows in the energy sector. There is an increase in oil consumption which has caused less oil production cuts in anticipation of this added demand. It looks like the commodity could try to test the mid $70s range if it can hold above resistance at $72. Oil has hovered near the bottom around $67 and broke through a sideways channel on the 1D timeframe. We will likely see today whether or not this trend has been broken.
- Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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- Frank
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Tech stocks came back from the pre market highs and are moving towards break even. With NVDA up over 2%, the tech index may have a chance, but everything is falling this morning so the NASDAQ may be stuck making swings both ways today. The indices do look to be in a prime spot for recovery back to the highs, and that strategy has worked all of 2024. It might not be a bad idea to look for a bounce here.
- Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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- Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Retail sentiment is showing an increase in bulls from the options market. The put/call ratio is almost near extreme greed area. This means that the market could be about to pull back.
- Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Smart money is not buying indices, but they are buying dollar, T-bills and oil. They are likely buying DXY and treasuries because rates are likely to stay around this level for the year and they can lock in some yield.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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ISM Manufacturing data comes out tomorrow and is expected to come in 0.1 units lower than last month. Manufacturing data is not as important as Services PMI which is going to be released next Tuesday. A relatively similar Manufacturing PMI is probably not going to affect the markets at all.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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DXY (Dollar Index) Daily Chart:
Solid uptrend, with a bit of a pullback potentially starting to form. I like the idea of looking for longs should we see further weakness.
Price remains in a very strong uptrend, following upbeat US economic data recently. Additionally, the fed seems to be in no rush to cut rates, compared to G7 peers - who may need to begin cutting rates more aggressively. This, on a relative basis, continues to support a stronger US dollar.
- Nick
Solid uptrend, with a bit of a pullback potentially starting to form. I like the idea of looking for longs should we see further weakness.
Price remains in a very strong uptrend, following upbeat US economic data recently. Additionally, the fed seems to be in no rush to cut rates, compared to G7 peers - who may need to begin cutting rates more aggressively. This, on a relative basis, continues to support a stronger US dollar.
- Nick