A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures
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Meanwhile... we continue to see retail traders trying to fade the USD rally!

This has been the retail grim reaper recently, as dollar has continued to rip.

- Nick
NASDAQ Daily Chart:

Is the bull set to continue? Tech stocks continue to look strong, especially following today's weakness in the dollar due to Trump's less intense stance on Tariffs towards critical imports and allies.

Technicals wise? We look great. The recent retracement is now showing signs of potentially breaking out higher. I remain bullish and long unless we break key support (as shown in the attached image)

- Nick
Here's a look at institutional activity on NASDAQ futures. Overall, pretty steady buying activity...
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Gold remains a neutral score on the EdgeFinder and has had little directional movement for about a month. However, the metal is still pushing off a key level of support on the 1D timeframe. What investors would want to see this week is a lower trend in jobs data. If wage growth falls while inflation has been on the rise, it could be a good sign for gold bulls. But if stagflation concerns do not come back in to play, the metal could come back down to test lower around $2,600.
-Frank

Data from the EdgeFinder
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Bitcoin is back up again rising over 3.5% on the day from approval of service in the UK and a new and as Micro Strategy made another purchase of 1,070 Bitcoin. What looked like a potential head and shoulders pattern ended up getting broken up by today's rally. The crypto may eventually come up to test the highs around $108,000 if price can close above the level of resistance broken today.

- Frank
Retail sentiment doesn't look to have changed much from last week as DOW and RUSSELL remain in the long category for now. Uncertainty revolves around SPX500, NAS100 and NIKKEI. The crowd likes metals and oil as well while being short the dollar.
- Frank

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Smart money is long dollar due to its recent change of purchasing T-bills. Because there are going to be less expected rate cuts this year, institutions are lowering their risk by grabbing up more treasury notes that will give them elevated yields for longer. Meanwhile, they are shorting NIKKEI, SPX, DOW and NAS. This looks more risk-off than other weeks we saw in 2024.
- Frank

Data from the EdgeFinder
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When it comes to jobs data, I think it's better to not pay much attention to NFP actual numbers and focus more on the surrounding data. JOLTS has become a more important indicator to me as it shows what business environments are like. Wage growth is another important factor, and so are NFP revisions and unemployment rate. Tomorrow, JOLTS will tell us more about job openings in the US and whether or not businesses are comfortable with hiring more in 2025 while in a elevated interest rate environment. Expectations for JOLTS is slightly higher than last month.

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Trading psychology poll… do you prefer sell trade setups, or buy trade setups?
Anonymous Poll
42%
Sell setups
58%
Buy setups
This chart should concern you... US10Y

With recent US data continuing to show strength, and questions about whether or not Trump's tariffs could cause increased inflation, the bond market is calling for little to no rate cuts in 2025 from the fed.

This chart is a major contributor to the dollar's recent strength, and the reluctance from rate sensitive stocks & metals (Gold, silver, and other industrial commodities)

If we continue to see upticks in inflation / strong economic prints, this could cause a real scare for risk assets like $BTCUSD, $SPY, $QQQ, and $IWM.

- Nick
JOLTS Job openings showed an appetite for hiring this morning, boosting US10Y (strong jobs = higher wages = inflation potential)
We also continue to see steady institutional accumulation of the #USD / $DXY
Anyone else watching USD/CHF?

Up ~63 pips already on this signal from yesterday.

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FX trades, last few months. Quiet, but steady!
Which do you prefer?
Anonymous Poll
33%
Light charts
67%
Dark charts
$AAPL breaking support & upward trendline.

Still playing the short side!

- Nick