S&P 500
The S&P is sitting at all time highs on the 1D timeframe following yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes. Today we will get unemployment claims a day early along with GDP numbers at 8:30 am EST. In this shortened week of trading, we might be seeing a slowdown in volatility so the intraday ranges are likely to be smaller than the usual. We will likely not get any major moves this week, but we should still look for any major changes in economic output from GDP. These numbers, along with Black Friday sales, could be a catalyst next week.
- Frank
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The S&P is sitting at all time highs on the 1D timeframe following yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes. Today we will get unemployment claims a day early along with GDP numbers at 8:30 am EST. In this shortened week of trading, we might be seeing a slowdown in volatility so the intraday ranges are likely to be smaller than the usual. We will likely not get any major moves this week, but we should still look for any major changes in economic output from GDP. These numbers, along with Black Friday sales, could be a catalyst next week.
- Frank
BLACK FRIDAY ENDS SOON
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USD/JPY
UJ is coming down towards the 149.500s support level today on one of the most bearish days since September. This could seem like a risk-off alert, but yields are dropping and so is the VIX. Sentiment could be momentarily going heavy risk-on this week and next as we get closer to closing out the month.
- Frank
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UJ is coming down towards the 149.500s support level today on one of the most bearish days since September. This could seem like a risk-off alert, but yields are dropping and so is the VIX. Sentiment could be momentarily going heavy risk-on this week and next as we get closer to closing out the month.
- Frank
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Gold, Daily Chart:
Although not as exciting - I remain neutral on gold at this time.
From a price action perspective, I think we need to wait for a breakout one way or the other.
Levels I'm watching:
- A break of 2700 or 2560
Fundamentals:
- Election drama is behind us
- Peace negotiations going seemingly well in Israel
- US economy looking robust.
Bearish fundamentals, technicals very mixed.
If I take a trade, it will be shared in VIP.
- Nick
Although not as exciting - I remain neutral on gold at this time.
From a price action perspective, I think we need to wait for a breakout one way or the other.
Levels I'm watching:
- A break of 2700 or 2560
Fundamentals:
- Election drama is behind us
- Peace negotiations going seemingly well in Israel
- US economy looking robust.
Bearish fundamentals, technicals very mixed.
If I take a trade, it will be shared in VIP.
- Nick
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Thank you for the thoughtful review Fabian!
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Gold's score has been creeping higher over the past few days which could indicate that investors are betting on a slow down in the US labor market this Friday. The metal is in between a level of support and resistance at $2,600 and $2,670s. It looks like there was a head and shoulders pattern on the 1D timeframe that caused the initial drop, but price has remained steady for the past several trading days. Worse NFP and unemployment numbers could result in a rise in demand for the metal.
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After the crypto's meteoric spike to the upside, Bitcoin's price struggles just under the $100,000 mark. Risk sentiment has not declined in the stock market, but signs of diminishing optimism in the crypto market are very much present. Last week's candle closed in a bearish way suggesting buyer's exhaustion. Although investor may be optimistic on Bitcoin, it could be out of buyers in the short term.
- Frank
- Frank
Metals have been on the top of the list for some time. Oil and gold are also hot commodities among the crowd, meaning that gold might not be ready to return to the highs yet and oil might not be ready to recover from the lows.
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On the other side of sentiment, it seems COT and retail are in agreement on the direction of gold and oil. The largest positions to the upside are yen, NASDAQ and oil. Meanwhile, they are selling out of small caps, NIKKEI, DOW and treasuries.
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US Manufacturing PMI data came out today higher than expected and rose by a substantial amount from last month. However, in a primarily services economy, this number does not matter as much as Services PMI on Wednesday. These are a few of the key metrics to come out this week as we await jobs data starting with JOLTS tomorrow.
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NASDAQ Daily Chart:
Price looks poised for a breakout, now that we've returned to all time highs.
Fundamentally, we have a decently strong US economy, the fed still plans to reduce interest rates, and inflation is much more under control.
Technically, I will be looking for either a break and retest of the highs, or a pullback down towards 20,400.
Feeling bullish...
- Nick
Price looks poised for a breakout, now that we've returned to all time highs.
Fundamentally, we have a decently strong US economy, the fed still plans to reduce interest rates, and inflation is much more under control.
Technically, I will be looking for either a break and retest of the highs, or a pullback down towards 20,400.
Feeling bullish...
- Nick
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BTCUSD Daily Chart:
Price action looks a bit stagnant just short of 100k. I do believe there is a strong probability that we head to test that, but would personally like to wait for a retest before possible longs.
Fundamentally, I think BTC has a good backdrop into 2025. With the return of Donald Trump and the new department of government efficiency (DOGE) run by Elon Musk, Bitcoin currently has some strong allies taking power. Additionally, we see a pretty strong setup for the US economy, amidst falling inflation and a consumer feeling stronger than recent years.
I remain bullish, but patiently waiting for an opportunity.
- Nick
Price action looks a bit stagnant just short of 100k. I do believe there is a strong probability that we head to test that, but would personally like to wait for a retest before possible longs.
Fundamentally, I think BTC has a good backdrop into 2025. With the return of Donald Trump and the new department of government efficiency (DOGE) run by Elon Musk, Bitcoin currently has some strong allies taking power. Additionally, we see a pretty strong setup for the US economy, amidst falling inflation and a consumer feeling stronger than recent years.
I remain bullish, but patiently waiting for an opportunity.
- Nick
False Hope for Oil
Oil prices rise on further tensions in Russia and Ukraine, while South Korean president Yeol declared martial law before parliament got it rejected several hours later. Geopolitical tensions are rising, but the market remains steady for now and oil consolidates around $69. Price is between two key levels at $72 and $67, but it seems unlikely that it will continue to push higher on for the day. The score has changed into positive territory on the EF due to a reversal in trend, but no real fundamental bias. This could go back to a +3 overall score this week sometime if the uptrend ceases.
-Frank
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Oil prices rise on further tensions in Russia and Ukraine, while South Korean president Yeol declared martial law before parliament got it rejected several hours later. Geopolitical tensions are rising, but the market remains steady for now and oil consolidates around $69. Price is between two key levels at $72 and $67, but it seems unlikely that it will continue to push higher on for the day. The score has changed into positive territory on the EF due to a reversal in trend, but no real fundamental bias. This could go back to a +3 overall score this week sometime if the uptrend ceases.
-Frank
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