Nick's Gold Trade Breakdown
August 2, 2024
🟢 Entry Price: 2472.47
🔴 Exit Price: 2567.87
Trade Result: $1,816.36 (3.97%)
Technical Analysis:
After breaking a key level of daily resistance, and pulling back into now support, a buy entry was executed with stops just below recent swing lows.
Fundamental Analysis:
With the fed poised to cut rates in 2024, and uncertain economic conditions (notably, cooling jobs data and a weakening US dollar)
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August 2, 2024
🟢 Entry Price: 2472.47
🔴 Exit Price: 2567.87
Trade Result: $1,816.36 (3.97%)
Technical Analysis:
After breaking a key level of daily resistance, and pulling back into now support, a buy entry was executed with stops just below recent swing lows.
Fundamental Analysis:
With the fed poised to cut rates in 2024, and uncertain economic conditions (notably, cooling jobs data and a weakening US dollar)
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Use code TGVIP for 40% off VIP signals
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After the announcement of Scott Bessent as Secretary of Treasury on Friday, gold's price dropped like a rock. This pick has somewhat eased concerns over the inflation trend which may help with the Fed decisions on cutting rates and bringing CPI down to the 2% target. Gold is down nearly 3% at the time of writing this and looks like it will try support around the $2,600 level which has served as a major level to break or bounce.
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Although not a big correction right now, price inched close to the $100K price target before pulling back on what could be profit taking. What makes this position tricky is that a reversal could take the crypto down 25% to the nearest support level, but price is only about 5% away from the anticipated price goal.
The psychological level has prevented price from moving to it despite the demand from businesses around this asset. One outcome we could see is a stall in price for a while where Bitcoin moves lower and stalls in the $80,000-99,000 range before we get another push.
-Frank
The psychological level has prevented price from moving to it despite the demand from businesses around this asset. One outcome we could see is a stall in price for a while where Bitcoin moves lower and stalls in the $80,000-99,000 range before we get another push.
-Frank
USOIL Daily Chart:
Price action looks rough here, with possible downside momentum picking up if we break through the $67 per barrel mark.
Today's good news about peace negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah has oil prices sliding this morning.
Additionally, with Trump's goal of drilling significant amounts of oil and making USA a major exporter could also drive supply higher, and price lower.
Looking bearish for now!
- Nick
Price action looks rough here, with possible downside momentum picking up if we break through the $67 per barrel mark.
Today's good news about peace negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah has oil prices sliding this morning.
Additionally, with Trump's goal of drilling significant amounts of oil and making USA a major exporter could also drive supply higher, and price lower.
Looking bearish for now!
- Nick
Yen sees the most change to the buy side from institutions while the dollar was lightly sold. There is a divergence between US indices which has been a common story this year. Small caps and blue chips are getting sold while tech and S&P are getting bought up.
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This week we will see another GDP number on Wednesday. Expectations are 2.8% which was October's actual. This means that forecasts have declined from the 3% from the last two months. As long as the actual number is in line with analysts' forecasts, it should be a mild reaction in the market.
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USDJPY Daily Chart:
Price continues to climb higher here, each time it pulls back. Technical momentum looks solid for now, unless we breach the 151 level.
Global economic outlook looks decently supported right now, led by an upbeat US economy.
This could keep bearish pressure on the Yen, as carry trade investors continue borrowing JPY in exchange for other currencies.
- Nick
Price continues to climb higher here, each time it pulls back. Technical momentum looks solid for now, unless we breach the 151 level.
Global economic outlook looks decently supported right now, led by an upbeat US economy.
This could keep bearish pressure on the Yen, as carry trade investors continue borrowing JPY in exchange for other currencies.
- Nick
Forwarded from A1 TRADING | Stocks & Options
CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings is reporting earnings after the bell today with an expectation of $0.81, 18% lower than last quarter’s actual. Since the last report, price has regained almost all of its losses and is near the highs of $400 again. What we are seeing from the Stock Analyzer tool is that trailing and forward PEs are rising but earnings, revenue and gross margins haven’t moved in the last report. The tech company will need to see improvement in this area to move higher. Guidance will also need to be higher, and a 2025 projection needs to not show signs of slowing. The stock’s score is +3 which is two points higher than the sector average.
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CrowdStrike Holdings is reporting earnings after the bell today with an expectation of $0.81, 18% lower than last quarter’s actual. Since the last report, price has regained almost all of its losses and is near the highs of $400 again. What we are seeing from the Stock Analyzer tool is that trailing and forward PEs are rising but earnings, revenue and gross margins haven’t moved in the last report. The tech company will need to see improvement in this area to move higher. Guidance will also need to be higher, and a 2025 projection needs to not show signs of slowing. The stock’s score is +3 which is two points higher than the sector average.
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Fed minutes came out basically telling us nothing once again. There are worries of cutting too aggressively and bringing back inflation pressures. There are also worries of not cutting enough if labor market continues to cool. This is the Fed's way of saying it could go either way, which is no surprise to anyone. Stock prices are relatively unchanged, gold caught a bounce and the 2 year yield is flat on the day.
An outcome that I think will happen is that yields have bottomed out for a while, but there is no inherent pressure on stocks. Gold's bull rally will likely slow due to the uncertainty around the aggressiveness of monetary easing. Stocks could likely continue with what they are doing in this melt up. Minutes is not a big catalyst for the markets. Tomorrow's GDP number is the only thing I think to be important this week as it shows us another glance at economic health.
- Frank
An outcome that I think will happen is that yields have bottomed out for a while, but there is no inherent pressure on stocks. Gold's bull rally will likely slow due to the uncertainty around the aggressiveness of monetary easing. Stocks could likely continue with what they are doing in this melt up. Minutes is not a big catalyst for the markets. Tomorrow's GDP number is the only thing I think to be important this week as it shows us another glance at economic health.
- Frank
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