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Update on the BTCUSD trade... (I have a position on $IBIT)
Today I'm trailing my stop behind Tuesday's swing low, where we found fresh buying strength. Securing a bit more profit in case we see a sharp reversal + break of structure.
Fundamentals look intact, with the Trump administration seemingly favorable towards crypto. Additionally, we're seeing a continued bull run in risk assets due to interest rates coming down, labor data holding up decent, and inflation less threatening than it has been in recent years.
Trailing stops to stay disciplined & avoid greed!
- Nick
Today I'm trailing my stop behind Tuesday's swing low, where we found fresh buying strength. Securing a bit more profit in case we see a sharp reversal + break of structure.
Fundamentals look intact, with the Trump administration seemingly favorable towards crypto. Additionally, we're seeing a continued bull run in risk assets due to interest rates coming down, labor data holding up decent, and inflation less threatening than it has been in recent years.
Trailing stops to stay disciplined & avoid greed!
- Nick
Gold
Gold drops to a key support level on the 1D timeframe around $2,600. This spot is the second key level after breaking under the trend line. Gold’s score is now a -3 on the EF to suggest it is no longer a bullish trade. Today’s CPI data came in as expected which is pretty much in line with the Fed’s stance and projections. It would not be surprising to see price break under this level of support with this news.
- Frank
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Gold drops to a key support level on the 1D timeframe around $2,600. This spot is the second key level after breaking under the trend line. Gold’s score is now a -3 on the EF to suggest it is no longer a bullish trade. Today’s CPI data came in as expected which is pretty much in line with the Fed’s stance and projections. It would not be surprising to see price break under this level of support with this news.
- Frank
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures
Gold Gold drops to a key support level on the 1D timeframe around $2,600. This spot is the second key level after breaking under the trend line. Gold’s score is now a -3 on the EF to suggest it is no longer a bullish trade. Today’s CPI data came in as expected…
Gold can't seem to catch a bid...
Breaking support.
- Nick
Breaking support.
- Nick
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NASDAQ
The tech market is struggling at these new historic highs on the 1D timeframe. There is a chance price could retest the $20,700s level in which the index has previously broken. The put/call ratio is now the lowest it’s been in a month at 0.79 meaning there is more bullish leaning sentiment. We should keep in mind that we are also coming off an extreme fear reading from the gauge. Although a retracement could happen, it would seem like another buying opportunity based on this uptrend.
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The tech market is struggling at these new historic highs on the 1D timeframe. There is a chance price could retest the $20,700s level in which the index has previously broken. The put/call ratio is now the lowest it’s been in a month at 0.79 meaning there is more bullish leaning sentiment. We should keep in mind that we are also coming off an extreme fear reading from the gauge. Although a retracement could happen, it would seem like another buying opportunity based on this uptrend.
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CPI came in line with expectations today at 2.6% which is slightly higher than last month's number. I think a consequence of better earnings, economic growth and jobs growth, there will likely be higher inflation. This problem will likely not be a major factor going into year end, but the inflationary fears could creep back into the Fed's view which was so adamant about saving the jobs market. Further interest rate cuts are not going to help inflation either.
With a republican presidential win, the US is likely to drill and produce domestically which will probably drive oil prices down further on an increase in supply. So if oil prices remain lower, inflation may slowly rise or stay put which is what investors want. CPI over 3% will reintroduce the rate hike idea, so we need to be cautious of that. Without the Fed fears, the market has the green light to run higher in 2025
- Frank
With a republican presidential win, the US is likely to drill and produce domestically which will probably drive oil prices down further on an increase in supply. So if oil prices remain lower, inflation may slowly rise or stay put which is what investors want. CPI over 3% will reintroduce the rate hike idea, so we need to be cautious of that. Without the Fed fears, the market has the green light to run higher in 2025
- Frank
Gold did end up falling after breaking key support around $2,600 and is now testing support in the mid $2,500s. The metal has now closed the gap from the September highs which was the first month the Fed cut rates in this cycle. Gold might have found a bottom here if investors find this a fair level for gold's value to be. Although upside doesn't seem very optimistic, it wouldn't make much sense to see price fall back to the June lows. Additional support around $2,480 which may be the last line of defense.
-Frank
-Frank
A drop is not the best word to describe pre-market activity today as the S&P is only down 0.10% after PPI numbers came out. The index is now only a +2 on the EdgeFinder after all the indices were up at the top of the list earlier this week and last week. When Powell speaks today, we will likely hear him remain cautious towards inflation and may anticipate growth in the economy and jobs going into the end of the year. If we do not hear any key hawkish words from him, the market may consolidate or move higher.
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The dollar has seen an overall decline in bullish sentiment since September. Still, it continues to climb towards last year's highs in October. What we can interpret from dollar strength is that output, jobs and inflation could rise as a response to the change in presidency and risk-on appetite. Usually the dollar is a risk-off indicator, but it also rises on growth especially if it will hold more value than other major countries that are struggling economically.
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A higher CPI reading was expected and became the outcome on Wednesday. As long as CPI can stay below 3%, there might not be any fears of rate hikes in the future. We still have December's number to suggest where the trend could be heading for 2025.
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NASDAQ Daily Chart:
Sharp reversal here today, drastically changing this week's stock market performance.
The selloff is led lower by the technology sector and specifically the semiconductor industry stocks.
Powell's commentary yesterday seems to be spooking stock investors, who may have been hopeful for a more dovish outlook / more rate cuts next year.
Overall, I remain bullish on indices, but taking profits for the week ahead of the weekend.
- Nick
Sharp reversal here today, drastically changing this week's stock market performance.
The selloff is led lower by the technology sector and specifically the semiconductor industry stocks.
Powell's commentary yesterday seems to be spooking stock investors, who may have been hopeful for a more dovish outlook / more rate cuts next year.
Overall, I remain bullish on indices, but taking profits for the week ahead of the weekend.
- Nick