Is this a Legitimate Warning Sign?
US treasury notes are now leaning bullish as the EF scores dip into positive territory. Meanwhile, the treasury yields flew higher. Notes and yields have a negative correlation. As yields go higher, the price of the note decreases, and vice-versa.
Higher yields suggest the Fed won't be cutting as aggressively due to an anticipated period of growth. Wherever yields are heading will directly affect gold, so it's important to hear what the Fed plans to do with interest rates going forward. If they sound like 25-50 bps are too much to cut each meeting, it may cause yields to go higher/gold to go down.
- Frank
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US treasury notes are now leaning bullish as the EF scores dip into positive territory. Meanwhile, the treasury yields flew higher. Notes and yields have a negative correlation. As yields go higher, the price of the note decreases, and vice-versa.
Higher yields suggest the Fed won't be cutting as aggressively due to an anticipated period of growth. Wherever yields are heading will directly affect gold, so it's important to hear what the Fed plans to do with interest rates going forward. If they sound like 25-50 bps are too much to cut each meeting, it may cause yields to go higher/gold to go down.
- Frank
Data From The EdgeFinder!
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Retail suggests that they might start shorting the markets here at the highs. All the indices seem to have fallen in bullish positioning as all are neutral and RUSSELL is the least long asset in the long assets. The crowd is still buying gold and oil.
- Frank
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- Frank
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The crowd seems to be getting more attracted to the metal after its initial drop from the highs. Meanwhile, COT history suggests that smart money is getting out. You can see that after COT was reduced in late October, price peaked the next week and is now on a decline.
- Frank
Data From The EdgeFinder!
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- Frank
Data From The EdgeFinder!
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Want to see an example of a trade we shared this year in the A1 Trading Community? 😏👀
Nick's S&P500 Trade Breakdown
August - September 2024
🟢 Entry Price: 5237.13
🔴 Exit Price: 5506.00
Trade Result: $25,882.39 (5.23%)
Technical Analysis:
Key level of support, strong upward trend on the weekly chart, rejection wick forming at structure. Stop loss placed below initially, but Nick was able to trail his stop loss into profit until eventually being taken out for a profit.
Fundamental Analysis:
A strong reported services PMI report indicates strength in the economy, while the fed still seems poised to cut this year. Additionally, corporate earnings remain strong and I believe that the AI tech trade still has legs this year. Additionally, COT data shows institutional money is still buying the S&P500.
🏆 Trade shared with VIP members! Get access to trades like this:
Use code TGVIP for 40% off VIP signals
👉 Join here: https://a1trading.com/vip
August - September 2024
🟢 Entry Price: 5237.13
🔴 Exit Price: 5506.00
Trade Result: $25,882.39 (5.23%)
Technical Analysis:
Key level of support, strong upward trend on the weekly chart, rejection wick forming at structure. Stop loss placed below initially, but Nick was able to trail his stop loss into profit until eventually being taken out for a profit.
Fundamental Analysis:
A strong reported services PMI report indicates strength in the economy, while the fed still seems poised to cut this year. Additionally, corporate earnings remain strong and I believe that the AI tech trade still has legs this year. Additionally, COT data shows institutional money is still buying the S&P500.
🏆 Trade shared with VIP members! Get access to trades like this:
Use code TGVIP for 40% off VIP signals
👉 Join here: https://a1trading.com/vip
Tomorrow Chris Pulver & I will be conducting a free to attend webinar, discussing our Top Trading Setups for 2025.
This is going to be one of the most important events of the year - as we prep for some very big stories developing next year.
Here's a teaser list:
- What does a return of Donald Trump in the White House mean for markets?
- Is the fed going to pause rate cuts? What would that do?
- Is the AI trade a bubble, or just getting started?
- Is the USD going to continue its rally?
JOIN US:
Tuesday, Novermber 12th, 10:00 AM US EST.
The recording will also be shared to those who register.
REGISTER FOR FREE NOW HERE:
https://form.jotform.com/242265441549055
- Nick
This is going to be one of the most important events of the year - as we prep for some very big stories developing next year.
Here's a teaser list:
- What does a return of Donald Trump in the White House mean for markets?
- Is the fed going to pause rate cuts? What would that do?
- Is the AI trade a bubble, or just getting started?
- Is the USD going to continue its rally?
JOIN US:
Tuesday, Novermber 12th, 10:00 AM US EST.
The recording will also be shared to those who register.
REGISTER FOR FREE NOW HERE:
https://form.jotform.com/242265441549055
- Nick
Gold prices fell another 2% this morning due to the heavy risk-on sentiment circulating the US markets and economy. Fears of geopolitical issues have dwindled, and the Fed remains dovish. The only factor that could influence price action now is CPI.
If inflation comes in higher than expected, it may boost gold's price on the support level of $2,600. Any kind of news to change from risk-on is a good sign for the metal. Gold was the trade of the year until this month. There is a new contender now.
- Frank
If inflation comes in higher than expected, it may boost gold's price on the support level of $2,600. Any kind of news to change from risk-on is a good sign for the metal. Gold was the trade of the year until this month. There is a new contender now.
- Frank
Crypto Could Be the Trade of 2025
Bitcoin hit another very important milestone after surpassing the all time highs from 2021. Analysts might be thinking that the crypto market is overvalued now, but I think there is a lot more room to run. On the technical side, price could come up to test the $90,000 range, but the psychological price of $100K seems likely.
My reasons for being bullish on crypto comes from the very obvious risk-on sentiment in the market. What kept price at bay for so long was the fear of wars continuing to place pressure on market bulls while gold was able to thrive. If money continues to flush out of metals and into more risk assets, bitcoin will likely outperform the S&P and NASDAQ as it acts like a leveraged version of the stock market. Today, SPX is down after open, but bitcoin is up 3% today, Ethereum is up 1%.
Data From The EdgeFinder!
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Bitcoin hit another very important milestone after surpassing the all time highs from 2021. Analysts might be thinking that the crypto market is overvalued now, but I think there is a lot more room to run. On the technical side, price could come up to test the $90,000 range, but the psychological price of $100K seems likely.
My reasons for being bullish on crypto comes from the very obvious risk-on sentiment in the market. What kept price at bay for so long was the fear of wars continuing to place pressure on market bulls while gold was able to thrive. If money continues to flush out of metals and into more risk assets, bitcoin will likely outperform the S&P and NASDAQ as it acts like a leveraged version of the stock market. Today, SPX is down after open, but bitcoin is up 3% today, Ethereum is up 1%.
Data From The EdgeFinder!
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The indices are now back at the top most bought assets on the list of smart money positions. Surprisingly, oil is up 4.55% from last week's institutional ownership. The dollar and yen are getting sold with metals including gold by a slight margin. We have yet to see more participation on bitcoin, but it seems like the trend will start moving up as the coin hits new all time highs.
Data From The EdgeFinder!
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👉 Get the EdgeFinder
Data From The EdgeFinder!
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👉 Get the EdgeFinder
Bitcoin 🚀 to the🌛
Locking in more profit on my position. What a meteoric move. This quickly became one of the biggest floating winners I've had all year...
Trailing my stop behind support + behind 61.8% retracement. The move is so violent, I am going to adjust stops slightly to secure a bit more profit should we see a sharp reversal.
- Nick
Locking in more profit on my position. What a meteoric move. This quickly became one of the biggest floating winners I've had all year...
Trailing my stop behind support + behind 61.8% retracement. The move is so violent, I am going to adjust stops slightly to secure a bit more profit should we see a sharp reversal.
- Nick