USDJPY rises on the day after the positive GDP numbers in the US this morning. But the score still remains very bearish on the EdgeFinder's outlook. Other factors like smart money pouring into the yen, weak seasonality, poor labor conditions, and expected lower yields next month are keeping the score negative.

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Retail turned bearish on the S&P, but remain mixed on NASDAQ and long RUSSELL small caps. Gold is now one of the top buys from retail too, suggesting that the metal may have topped out.

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Gold has mostly remained steady in COT positioning while retail went heavily long. This is usually not a great sign for continued bullishness on an asset that has already run up so far.

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UJ's positioning looks pretty clear on direction. COT has become dramatically less bullish on the pair while retail is becoming increasingly long the pair. This sort of behavior may foreshadow a longer term down trend.

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Gold 4H Chart:

Price is sitting just below all time highs, and continues the drift higher. We've seen price consistently bouncing off of the highs, but finding support just below.

It's possible that we could see a breakout, which could lead to fresh demand and new highs.

With rate cuts coming, gold has had a phenomenal year, and seems poised to continue the bull run.

I will be looking to trail my stop loss if we do see a new high form.

- Nick

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SPX500 Daily Chart

Watching the indices this week. If we break support, it's time for me to get out and wait for a better set up.

Let's see...

- Nick

Although recession fears are growing and investors are cautious of the rate decision, blue chips remain the most favorable of the indices. We had manufacturing PMI data come in just under the expectations but higher than last month's report.

What we have seen the past few weeks are a stagnant market, meaning the index has been trading within a range without really moving anywhere. However, DOW is different from the others as it reached an all time high last week. This may suggest that our best bet could be the companies with the most cash and will offer healthy dividends as interest rates fall.
-Frank

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USD is weaker against the other risk-off currencies such as the Swiss Franc and the Yen. The dollar may continue to weaken should we see the Fed come through with the expected rate cut this month. However, September tends to be a bullish month for the pair due to risk-off sentiment in the market.

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Retail is now short DOW despite it being a bullish reading on the EdgeFinder. RUSSELL and NASDAQ are favored to the long side by retail. Gold and the S&P are mixed.

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COT activity last week was quite unique. A rare occurrence of buying happened apart from two assets, oil and copper. This will lead to most COT score readings on the EdgeFinder to be neutral for the week. This does not suggest much of a bias from COT, and may just be neutral positioning for the next week.

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S&P500 Daily Chart

Profits taken!

- Nick

ISM Manufacturing data came out this morning and did not tell us much. Services is later this week, but the primary event investors are looking at is jobs data. NFP will likely cause lots of volatility while the unemployment rate is anticipated to be lower.

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NASDAQ
Tech stock tumble after NVDA was subpoenaed by the DOJ on an anti trust breach. The market cap giant lost $279 billion on Tuesday making it the biggest drop in value ever recorded on a single stock. NAS100 hits a falling trend line on the 1D timeframe that may end up catching a bounce if we close above it today. Another level of support the index could test is around the 200 DMA near the August lows.
-Frank

Gold
Price continues to struggle at the highs even as yields and the dollar fall. I’m writing this just before JOLTS numbers which could be the reason for mixed price action on the day. A higher job openings could be bearish for gold today and may cause optimism in the dollar. The metal could come down to test a supportive trend line on the 1D timeframe around $2,440s if we get bearish news.
-Frank

USD/JPY
UJ drops further this morning on dollar weakness before labor statistics coming out today. The pair does not look very optimistic in the longer term after entering a steep downtrend on the 1D timeframe. This level is an important zone to watch whether it breaks lower to the August lows or breaches above the 149s. Good labor numbers could be bullish for this pair.
-Frank

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