DXY Daily Chart:
The slide in the US dollar continues - as Powell signals the fed's attention has squarely shifted away from inflation and towards employment.
This shift in focus greatly increases the chances of the fed cutting interest rates in the coming months/years, to help bolster the jobs market from its recent slowing signals.
Congrats to fellow bears - this has been a heck of a move!
- Nick
The slide in the US dollar continues - as Powell signals the fed's attention has squarely shifted away from inflation and towards employment.
This shift in focus greatly increases the chances of the fed cutting interest rates in the coming months/years, to help bolster the jobs market from its recent slowing signals.
Congrats to fellow bears - this has been a heck of a move!
- Nick
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now: $979 (ONE TIME PAYMENT)
With this All-in-one Fundamental Dashboard you'll get access to:
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The NASDAQ is now a +7 on the EdgeFinder and is still a bullish reading. There is not much news around the USD this week, so most of the sentiment is going to revolve around big tech earnings. The year's money-maker has been NVDA, so there is much anticipation around the stock's earnings.
This is because investors want to be able to justify the company's valuation at current price. Unless NVIDIA cannot blow the latest report out of the water, it may cause the stock to take a sharp turn lower. Likewise, a strong beat in earnings, revenue and guidance could keep the tech market up.
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This is because investors want to be able to justify the company's valuation at current price. Unless NVIDIA cannot blow the latest report out of the water, it may cause the stock to take a sharp turn lower. Likewise, a strong beat in earnings, revenue and guidance could keep the tech market up.
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Precious metals are in high demand as gold touches near the all time highs again. With the Jackson Hole Symposium behind us, investors are now expecting a rate cut next month. This cut is in response to a declining jobs market which is not a good sign for the US economy.
As much as we may try to overlook the fact that inflation is stubborn and jobs are falling behind, this rate cut is not good news. In this scenario, the Fed is cutting because they think they have to, not because they have the luxury to do so. That's the thesis behind why gold will see further demand most likely. The metal is a great hedge against the weaker dollar and stock market.
- Frank
As much as we may try to overlook the fact that inflation is stubborn and jobs are falling behind, this rate cut is not good news. In this scenario, the Fed is cutting because they think they have to, not because they have the luxury to do so. That's the thesis behind why gold will see further demand most likely. The metal is a great hedge against the weaker dollar and stock market.
- Frank
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Japan's stock market has recovered over half of what it lost in early August. COT shows a lot of buying in the stock market which has outpaced the yen this week. NIKKEI is usually correlated with the US stock market, so tech earnings does have an impact on Japan's stocks as well.
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Retail is buying all the global indices except UK100, so the contrarian score is bearish for most indices. Gold is mixed while the dollar is getting heavily bought.
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With GDP coming up, analysts are not expecting much in terms of growth. Last month was a strong reading which is expected to happen again at 2.8%.
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Looking at tech stocks as we approach NVDA earnings tomorrow. The index is now under the 50 DMA but has not necessarily confirmed a break below this strong level of support. The market hasn’t really moved for the past week as we bump around within this consolidation zone. Powell has pointed to a rate cut in September, but the market has not followed through with a bullish move to the highs yet. With a light news week, it seems like the indices are going to shift their focus towards earnings. -Frank
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Gold is down at the start of the New York session, but has shown a better resolve than the US indices. The dollar is likely going to be weaker now that investors expect a rate cut soon, so gold is probably getting more attention on the demand side than other assets. Whether it’s a stagflation issue or a deflationary issue, gold looks healthier and safer than buying stocks near the highs or hoping for a dollar reversal.
-Frank
-Frank
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USDJPY turns lower on the day too, breaking under the long term support trend line. Overall, I think it’s important to monitor this pair as it depicts economic health in the US and the unwinding of the carry trade. It somewhat looks like today may be the deciding factor on index trend. We just need to watch UJ’s potential break lower.
-Frank
-Frank
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Tech stocks are rattled this morning in the wake of a heavy earnings report from NVDIA today after the bell. It’s hard to tell what we are going to get this quarter from AI earnings, but analysts predict it will bring lots of volatility to the markets. The chip maker will have to beat revenue, earnings, and have a strong guidance in order to justify these prices. If not, we could see a large move lower which may carry the NAS100 with it. Watch for a break under support around the 50 DMA at $19,400s.
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I'm waiting on the sidelines for EU and GU, but would like to buy a pullback if we see some meaningful selling in the next few days/weeks.
-Nick
-Nick
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NASDAQ falls under the 50 DMA about 30 minutes before close. VIX spiked about 15% today, but it's not necessarily a warning for a sell off. Implied volatility is going up as a result of the upcoming NVDA earnings which is highly anticipated. We are pretty sensitive to news at these high prices, and investors need to see a justification to be at this level.
The expected move for this stock is 9.5% either way. NVDA will likely have to beat earnings, revenue, and have higher guidance. If sales have slowed or there is a miss in earnings, or guidance expects slower growth in Q4 and/or 2025, it might hurt the stock at least in the short term. And if everything works out for the chip giant, NASDAQ may be comfortable staying elevated
-Frank
The expected move for this stock is 9.5% either way. NVDA will likely have to beat earnings, revenue, and have higher guidance. If sales have slowed or there is a miss in earnings, or guidance expects slower growth in Q4 and/or 2025, it might hurt the stock at least in the short term. And if everything works out for the chip giant, NASDAQ may be comfortable staying elevated
-Frank
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The $3 trillion tech giant beat all estimates except guidance on next earnings. Because it wasn't a perfect report, the stock is struggling to push any higher than where it is now. In order to see higher highs in the stock and the index it resides, earnings needs to be constantly blowing it out of the water.
This isn't to say that the stock or the market will drop hard as a result, however. The put/call ratio is now about neutral suggesting that the balance between bulls and bears will likely keep price in more of a consolidation pattern.
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This isn't to say that the stock or the market will drop hard as a result, however. The put/call ratio is now about neutral suggesting that the balance between bulls and bears will likely keep price in more of a consolidation pattern.
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A key inflation report for the Fed is coming out tomorrow which is expected to come out unchanged. Core PCE will show us the price of goods and services purchased by consumers and tell whether or not prices are getting more or less expensive.
Stagnant or lower PCE will indicate that inflation is not too much of a concern. A higher PCE could likely cause some distress as the labor market unemployment rate still remains elevated above 4%. Gold would likely react positively to a higher PCE number.
-Frank
Stagnant or lower PCE will indicate that inflation is not too much of a concern. A higher PCE could likely cause some distress as the labor market unemployment rate still remains elevated above 4%. Gold would likely react positively to a higher PCE number.
-Frank
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