NASDAQ falls under the 50 DMA about 30 minutes before close. VIX spiked about 15% today, but it's not necessarily a warning for a sell off. Implied volatility is going up as a result of the upcoming NVDA earnings which is highly anticipated. We are pretty sensitive to news at these high prices, and investors need to see a justification to be at this level.
The expected move for this stock is 9.5% either way. NVDA will likely have to beat earnings, revenue, and have higher guidance. If sales have slowed or there is a miss in earnings, or guidance expects slower growth in Q4 and/or 2025, it might hurt the stock at least in the short term. And if everything works out for the chip giant, NASDAQ may be comfortable staying elevated
-Frank
The expected move for this stock is 9.5% either way. NVDA will likely have to beat earnings, revenue, and have higher guidance. If sales have slowed or there is a miss in earnings, or guidance expects slower growth in Q4 and/or 2025, it might hurt the stock at least in the short term. And if everything works out for the chip giant, NASDAQ may be comfortable staying elevated
-Frank
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The $3 trillion tech giant beat all estimates except guidance on next earnings. Because it wasn't a perfect report, the stock is struggling to push any higher than where it is now. In order to see higher highs in the stock and the index it resides, earnings needs to be constantly blowing it out of the water.
This isn't to say that the stock or the market will drop hard as a result, however. The put/call ratio is now about neutral suggesting that the balance between bulls and bears will likely keep price in more of a consolidation pattern.
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This isn't to say that the stock or the market will drop hard as a result, however. The put/call ratio is now about neutral suggesting that the balance between bulls and bears will likely keep price in more of a consolidation pattern.
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A key inflation report for the Fed is coming out tomorrow which is expected to come out unchanged. Core PCE will show us the price of goods and services purchased by consumers and tell whether or not prices are getting more or less expensive.
Stagnant or lower PCE will indicate that inflation is not too much of a concern. A higher PCE could likely cause some distress as the labor market unemployment rate still remains elevated above 4%. Gold would likely react positively to a higher PCE number.
-Frank
Stagnant or lower PCE will indicate that inflation is not too much of a concern. A higher PCE could likely cause some distress as the labor market unemployment rate still remains elevated above 4%. Gold would likely react positively to a higher PCE number.
-Frank
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USDJPY rises on the day after the positive GDP numbers in the US this morning. But the score still remains very bearish on the EdgeFinder's outlook. Other factors like smart money pouring into the yen, weak seasonality, poor labor conditions, and expected lower yields next month are keeping the score negative.
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Retail turned bearish on the S&P, but remain mixed on NASDAQ and long RUSSELL small caps. Gold is now one of the top buys from retail too, suggesting that the metal may have topped out.
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Gold has mostly remained steady in COT positioning while retail went heavily long. This is usually not a great sign for continued bullishness on an asset that has already run up so far.
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UJ's positioning looks pretty clear on direction. COT has become dramatically less bullish on the pair while retail is becoming increasingly long the pair. This sort of behavior may foreshadow a longer term down trend.
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Gold 4H Chart:
Price is sitting just below all time highs, and continues the drift higher. We've seen price consistently bouncing off of the highs, but finding support just below.
It's possible that we could see a breakout, which could lead to fresh demand and new highs.
With rate cuts coming, gold has had a phenomenal year, and seems poised to continue the bull run.
I will be looking to trail my stop loss if we do see a new high form.
- Nick
Price is sitting just below all time highs, and continues the drift higher. We've seen price consistently bouncing off of the highs, but finding support just below.
It's possible that we could see a breakout, which could lead to fresh demand and new highs.
With rate cuts coming, gold has had a phenomenal year, and seems poised to continue the bull run.
I will be looking to trail my stop loss if we do see a new high form.
- Nick
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Although recession fears are growing and investors are cautious of the rate decision, blue chips remain the most favorable of the indices. We had manufacturing PMI data come in just under the expectations but higher than last month's report.
What we have seen the past few weeks are a stagnant market, meaning the index has been trading within a range without really moving anywhere. However, DOW is different from the others as it reached an all time high last week. This may suggest that our best bet could be the companies with the most cash and will offer healthy dividends as interest rates fall.
-Frank
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What we have seen the past few weeks are a stagnant market, meaning the index has been trading within a range without really moving anywhere. However, DOW is different from the others as it reached an all time high last week. This may suggest that our best bet could be the companies with the most cash and will offer healthy dividends as interest rates fall.
-Frank
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USD is weaker against the other risk-off currencies such as the Swiss Franc and the Yen. The dollar may continue to weaken should we see the Fed come through with the expected rate cut this month. However, September tends to be a bullish month for the pair due to risk-off sentiment in the market.
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Retail is now short DOW despite it being a bullish reading on the EdgeFinder. RUSSELL and NASDAQ are favored to the long side by retail. Gold and the S&P are mixed.
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COT activity last week was quite unique. A rare occurrence of buying happened apart from two assets, oil and copper. This will lead to most COT score readings on the EdgeFinder to be neutral for the week. This does not suggest much of a bias from COT, and may just be neutral positioning for the next week.
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