ISM Manufacturing data came out this morning and did not tell us much. Services is later this week, but the primary event investors are looking at is jobs data. NFP will likely cause lots of volatility while the unemployment rate is anticipated to be lower.

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NASDAQ
Tech stock tumble after NVDA was subpoenaed by the DOJ on an anti trust breach. The market cap giant lost $279 billion on Tuesday making it the biggest drop in value ever recorded on a single stock. NAS100 hits a falling trend line on the 1D timeframe that may end up catching a bounce if we close above it today. Another level of support the index could test is around the 200 DMA near the August lows.
-Frank

Gold
Price continues to struggle at the highs even as yields and the dollar fall. I’m writing this just before JOLTS numbers which could be the reason for mixed price action on the day. A higher job openings could be bearish for gold today and may cause optimism in the dollar. The metal could come down to test a supportive trend line on the 1D timeframe around $2,440s if we get bearish news.
-Frank

USD/JPY
UJ drops further this morning on dollar weakness before labor statistics coming out today. The pair does not look very optimistic in the longer term after entering a steep downtrend on the 1D timeframe. This level is an important zone to watch whether it breaks lower to the August lows or breaches above the 149s. Good labor numbers could be bullish for this pair.
-Frank

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Japanese stock index fell about 7% from last month's high as investors load up on the yen causing further dissension in the carry trade. The start of the month is not suggesting anything bullish, but investors still want to look for a reason for higher stock prices around the world.

Cooler jobs data is more of a confirmation for a rate cut from the Fed, and NIKKEI is mostly correlated to the US stock market. Investors also are uncertain as to whether a 25 or 50 point cut is going to cause any relief to the labor market. -Frank

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Since July 2022, the yield curve (2 year crossed with the 10 year bond yield) was inverted. Last night, the curve returned to normal which means that the 10 year bond now yields more interest than the 2 year. This is considered normal as longer term notes are supposed to offer more interest than short term rates.

However, every time we have seen this curve invert and return to normal, a recession imminently followed. This happened in 2007, 2000, 1980s and a few other times. When I say imminent, I mean in the sense of months after. It's not an instantaneous reaction, but it has historically alerted a market crash not long after the reversion. -Frank

A safe bet on playing the Fed's monetary cycle is by trading the bond market. Since everyone expect yields to come down for the next several quarters, bond prices will rise as a result. TLT is an ETF that tracks the 20 year bond price. Price has now returned to the highs from the beginning of this year.

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Gold Daily Chart:

Here is my gameplan for gold tomorrow, in regards to the jobs report!

If we see weak NFP data, I will be looking for a breakout through all time highs. Gold in this case would likely breakout on uncertainty that the fed can keep things under control, and the diminished probability of a "soft landing". More rate cuts coming at a faster pace would be very bullish for gold. On any break & retest of structure, I'd be willing to add to my existing long position in this scenario.

If we see a strong NFP report, gold would likely drop on job market stability concerns being offset. In this case, I will stay long on gold unless we break support as shown in the image attached.

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- Nick

ITS UP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeR7D1ScvsU

Retail is very bullish dollar, mixed indices. Small caps, DAX and NIKKEI are among a several long positions.

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USDJPY price plotted with retail and COT data is close to inverting. Smart money sentiment has declined while retail is picking up on their long positions. Individual traders are trying to catch a reversal on the dollar yen trade, but institutions are slowly getting out.

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We are now seeing a stronger bearish reading on the NIKKEI as COT continues to pull away from Japanese stocks and pours into to yen. Long retail and short COT creates a nice divergence between these to assets to suggest that the index may continue to move lower in the future.

NIKKEI is a sensitive instrument to the US stock market as well, and it seems that any sell off in the US results in a greater one over in Japan. The put/call ration is still climbing each day despite a positive seasonality score.

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Oil prices drop ahead of the election in November. Production is at a high point in the US, but it seems to be weaker as a result of poorer economic data in the US. Price is currently testing a double bottom on the 1D timeframe around $67 per barrel.
- Frank

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One important metal to watch is gold as we get closer to Wednesday. As price nears $2,500, the market remains unsteady. This is because CPI could come in stagnant or lower which would likely cause weakness in the metal.

However, if we get signs of rising inflation, gold may be the best trade to the long side. Stagflation is an incredibly bearish signal for stocks and the dollar. This makes gold a good hedge against that kind of scenario. A higher CPI could result in retesting the highs while a lower CPI could bring gold down to the rising trend line on the 1D timeframe.

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Retail is now long NASDAQ, RUSSELL, USOIL. Mixed positions are NIKKEI, GOLD, USDJPY, and SPX500. The crowd seems to be either long or neutral on the US indices.

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