The NAS100 is now 12% off the lows from early August and is nearing resistance around its 50 DMA. This also served as a previous top and bottom in the market on the 1D timeframe. Because we have broken and stayed above a wedge pattern, NAS could try another attempt at the highs.
- Frank

Gold is still a bullish score among our list of assets, but the recent healthy data is putting pressure on the metal. This news may relieve the Fed from taking extreme measures of taking a 50 basis point rate cut. 25 may be the what the Fed decides, but the expectations are never certain.

Gold may not be as in demand as a result. If the economy is doing well and inflation ticks lower, the risk trade may be coming back into view. That means sectors like the tech market, speculation and growth stocks may become the trade for the remainder of the year. We still need to watch for the next round of labor data and FOMC decisions.

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Retail is now mixed on all the indices in the US. UK100 and EURUSD are among the top shorted. RUSSELL, Gold, USOil, Silver are among the top most bought.

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Retail is getting long on tech stocks while COT remains neutral-bullish. If retail continues to buy, we may get a contrarian signal telling us that the index could be topping out. If COT remains long, however, the market may drift higher.

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Unemployment claims came in lower once again marking the second week of better jobs data. Despite the disastrous NFP, it seems the market is grabbing on to anything to move higher. Labor market data seems key to trading in this environment.

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Gold / XAUUSD Daily Chart

Fresh all time highs!

With rate cuts on the way, and global economic data cooling, the uptrend continues chugging along.

Curious to see how today's candle closes, and may look for pullback entries to add longs🙂

Congrats to the bulls!

- Nick

DXY (USD) Daily Chart:

Price is continuing lower as we head into the big fed meeting week.

With employment data slowing, and expectations for the fed to begin cutting rates in September, the dollar downtrend seems intact.

For now, rallies on the dollar look like selling opportunities in my view.

- Nick

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NAS100 breaks above a heavy resistance level on the 1D timeframe. If price can remain above this by the close of the day, we may be looking at a chance to test the highs in the coming weeks. It's important to remain cautious, however. If the index doesn't close above, it could be a great setup for a short trade.
-Frank

Bond prices have recovered most of the losses from early August and are heading back towards the highs just under $100 per share on TLT. The 10 year bond note dropped by 0.2 basis points this morning which may be a result of the expected rate cut in September.

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The crowd is now heavily short the S&P. Retail has been pretty mixed on the indices over the span of a month as the NASDAQ is still majority long and DOW is neutral.
-Frank

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In a service economy, the Services PMI will be considerably impactful on the markets this week. Although the overall trend is mixed, investors want to see a beat in forecasts which is 54. This news is on Thursday, so we have lots of time for big moves before then. However, the sentiment for Friday and next week could be decided on Thursday and Friday this week which is also the Jackson Hole Symposium.

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Gold has breached all-time highs again, rising above $2,500 due to falling yields and a much weaker dollar. This indicates that the trend of a declining USD reflects a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy, making gold—not stocks—a strong hedge. It appears that gold is no longer aligned with bond yields and the stock market.
-Frank

Tech stocks are turning lower in premarket trading after a substantial run to the upside, breaking above significant resistance on the daily timeframe. If the index pulls back further, it may seek support around the 50-day moving average. There’s likely nothing new to expect from tomorrow's FOMC meeting minutes, as Powell is expected to reiterate recent statements. With no major USD news today, we’ll likely see lighter volatility. However, volatility is expected to pick up later this week with PMI and jobless claims data on the horizon.

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USD/JPY is the key pair to watch for insights into stock market sentiment. Investors have labeled the unwinding of the carry trade as an overreaction, expecting the dollar to regain strength. However, the chart suggests a different narrative. Time will tell if the carry trade continues to push investors out of the dollar and into the yen. The pair has hit a strong support trend line on the daily timeframe, and if it breaks this level, we could see a shift back to risk-off sentiment. This could lead to another sell-off in stocks and the dollar, while gold may gain upside demand.
- Frank

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