Gold broke above the strong resistance zone on the 1D timeframe as PPI came in lighter than expected. Falling producer prices could be foreshadowing a lower CPI number tomorrow which would match expectations. Either way, falling CPI or rising CPI, gold still seems like a good hedge against the stock market and the dollar. Because we are expecting rate cuts anyways, gold will likely see demand over the dollar. If CPI is higher, the stagflation issue will be brought back up, and gold will likely be in a perfect bullish scenario.
-Frank
-Frank
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The tech index is testing resistance in the $18,700s range on the 1D timeframe on its initial reaction to lower PPI numbers. Unlike gold however, stocks will need to see lower CPI tomorrow in order to find more demand to the upside. If it’s higher, NAS will likely drop on the stagflation issue. Watch for a break above the falling trend line if we come up to test it because this could be the opportunity to ride prices near the highs again. If it’s higher, watch for a test back towards the 200 DMA.
-Frank
-Frank
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Dollar yen drops this morning as the market opens up in the New York Session. The 2 year yield is dropping hard this morning too indicating a newly formed divergence between stocks and yields. Lower inflation data is likely going to continue to put pressure on yields which in turn could negatively affect UJ.
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PPI Came Out Lower Than Forecast Today, CPI Tomorrow Comes Out...
Anonymous Poll
56%
Lower Than Forecasted
26%
Higher Than Forecasted
19%
As Expected
👍10❤1
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Each trade comes with entries, exits, and full analysis.
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DXY Daily Chart:
Dollar index breaking another key level of support here as inflation data comes in largely cooler than expected this week.
This sets up a pretty clear runway for the fed to begin cutting rates in September.
Currently it is a toss up between a 0.25% reduction in the federal funds rate, and a larger cut of 0.50% reduction.
We'll see! I am staying dollar bearish.
- Nick
Dollar index breaking another key level of support here as inflation data comes in largely cooler than expected this week.
This sets up a pretty clear runway for the fed to begin cutting rates in September.
Currently it is a toss up between a 0.25% reduction in the federal funds rate, and a larger cut of 0.50% reduction.
We'll see! I am staying dollar bearish.
- Nick
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The SPX500 is now showing the strongest bullish reading among all indices, driven by heavy retail short positions and a clear uptrend. The recent CPI y/y drop to 2.9% was a significant psychological breakthrough, marking the first dip below 3% in some time—a positive sign. However, other metrics require attention. Core CPI and CPI m/m met expectations but were higher than last month’s figures, indicating that inflation may not be trending lower. Since Core CPI is a key indicator for the Fed, the overall results are mixed. With inflation potentially less of a concern, focus shifts to labor data, including NFP, unemployment rates, and wage growth, which will need to show improvement. The SPX500 is also approaching a strong resistance level near a falling trend line and the 50 DMA on the daily chart. -Frank
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S&P500 Daily Chart:
Full context and update on my "campaign". I was definitely early with some of my entries, but remain bullish and managed to catch a pretty solid entry near the lows.
This morning we saw healthy jobs data and solid retail sales data. Additionally, Walmart earnings show some strength for consumers as well.
Combine this with inflation cooling steady as shown in this week's CPI & PPI, I remain very bullish going forward.
- Nick
Full context and update on my "campaign". I was definitely early with some of my entries, but remain bullish and managed to catch a pretty solid entry near the lows.
This morning we saw healthy jobs data and solid retail sales data. Additionally, Walmart earnings show some strength for consumers as well.
Combine this with inflation cooling steady as shown in this week's CPI & PPI, I remain very bullish going forward.
- Nick
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Euro-dollar is now the strongest bullish reading on any currency pair on the EdgeFinder. There could be more upside potential after higher retail sales data in the US. Usually, the dollar will react positively to this kind of news, but it is more so better for the stock market.
EURUSD is correlated to the stock market, so the combination of better labor data and the retail rebound might be an optimistic sign for this pair.
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EURUSD is correlated to the stock market, so the combination of better labor data and the retail rebound might be an optimistic sign for this pair.
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