NASDAQ Daily Chart:

Tech trade looks rough for now, stopped out and watching for better setups.

GOOGL earnings were pretty solid, but still not enough to dazzle the market. TSLA disappointing earnings for the AI hype trade.

50 day moving average & support broke. Momentum slowing for now...

- Nick

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Although GDP came in higher, the S&P continues to struggle. We are now 4% off the highs on this index as speculation is replaced by risk-aversion. Even as yields drop again today, the market is not showing any promising signs of recovery yet.

Even if we see a few days of upside, it could just be another setup for a lower low. The pattern of a bear market is not very predictable, and sometimes it looks good to buy a dip. However, if we truly are in a bear market, those bounces are not dip buying opportunities, and more so short setups.

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Earnings has been lack luster in the tech sector which is taking a toll on NASDAQ. The problem with getting so overvalued in such a short run means that earnings needs to blow it out of the water. Any small miss will cause a sell off.

It would be healthy to see a pullback further into the $16,000s which would be another 12% dip from current price. If we see a close like this on the NAS by the end of the month, we may see a reversal continue in the next few months.

Even gold isn't looking bullish according to the EdgeFinder. We observed another decline in its score, moving our bias out of the bullish range. Despite falling yields, the metal continues to struggle against risk-off forces.

Today's GDP report might have also contributed to gold's drop, as good economic news tends to be bearish for the metal.

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Having larger profits / a higher reward to risk ratio on your winners means accepting a lower win rate.

Retail sentiment is mixed across the indices. The SPX500 and DOW are predominantly short, while the NASDAQ and small caps are long. Small caps might be the only sustainable long play.

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Currently, the most significant positional changes are in the NIKKEI and RUSSELL, which saw the largest movements in smart money. Blue chip stocks are also being bought up, indicating a rotation into safer assets. Today, the DOW and RUSSELL are the only indices showing positive performance.

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Today marked the first significant GDP expectations beat in four months. However, the NASDAQ is down nearly 2%, and the SPX500 is down close to 1%. This suggests that economic numbers are not currently driving the market, as earnings season begins with disappointing results from big tech and other sectors.

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WE'RE LIVE for PCE!

https://www.youtube.com/live/miuzqhJYXlk

Markets are expecting rate cuts by September's fed meeting.

But - a slight chance we actually see a 50 basis point cut by then, rather than a 25 basis point cut...

Between now and then, labor data will be key to telling us if the economy is stable, or really starting to cool. - Nick

Gold Daily Chart:

We're seeing price stall out at the highs, falling back into the consolidation zone we've been in the last few months.

For now, I'll continue watching gold from the sidelines until a more clear direction forms on the technicals.

- Nick

Did anyone else catch the DOW? US30 rocking higher, led by 3M's strong earnings report!

- Nick

EdgeFinder on the money!

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The S&P is still about 3.5% from the all time highs of July 16. With plenty of earnings this week, markets are expected to move. I bet on volatility either way may be the play traders are looking for. The Fed remains uncertain as well; they could potentially reverse the idea of a rate cut in September if inflation levels are still in question.

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The NASDAQ could come back to test resistance around $19,500 if the bounce is strong enough. However, the sell-off might not be over, and the index could drop to around $18,480, where there is clear support.

Sandwiched between these key levels, investors are eagerly awaiting clues from the FOMC this Wednesday. While a rate cut this month is unlikely, price behavior will largely depend on whether Powell expresses confidence in a downward inflation trend, forecasts a cut later this year, or indicates a willingness to cut rates for consumer relief. -Frank

Indices are losing ground on the EdgeFinder, except for the DOW, which remains bullish. However, a slight bounce from the lows is not yet a promising sign. In a potentially bearish environment, even blue chips are not impervious to the sell-off.

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Now that retail investors are no longer short on US indices, it could indicate that the sell-off may continue post-FOMC. Additionally, retail is short on USD.

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