Gold is on its fourth daily losing streak as risk-off sentiment dwindles. This could be a result of Biden's recent drop out. The reaction of this news has caused a stronger dollar today, and oddly enough, higher yields on the US02Y.

If price continues lower, we can expect a test around $2,360s or even the $2,300 level which is the bottom of a long term channel on the 1D timeframe. Gold's price is already 4% off the highs in only a matter of days. The metal is still a +6 on the EdgeFinder.

NASDAQ 1D Chart:

Nice start for a potential bounce here on NAS at this support level on the daily chart.

If this level holds, I will look to trail stops. If this level breaks, I will stop out and look for a better entry at lower prices.

Here are a few things on the fundamental front I am seeing that are keeping me bullish.

1. Inflation data cooling closer to the fed's 2% target. This could suggest that interest rates could ease this year, which could spur growth in the economy.

2. Jobs data cooling (but not crashing), contributing towards inflation coming down

3. Oil prices are down, helping with inflation as well due to lowered transportation costs

4. The odds for Trump to return to the white house have increased significantly. His policies are generally considered "pro business", and include tax cuts for businesses. This could lead to stock buybacks & further investment into technological advancement.

- Nick

A note on the political side: I am not necessarily saying Trump is good or bad for the overall economy, but for stocks it is pretty well accepted it could lead to stock prices to rise. - Nick

Interest rate sensitive assets like the RUSSELL could be highly reactive to Biden's leave. PMIs are holding the score back from a strong bullish reading. Unemployment rate is higher above 4% too. The index actually saw the most long positions added to it than any other asset on the EdgeFinder.

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Retail suggests bearishness on the indices, metals and oil. Gold is mixed with the DAX and DOW. USD pairs are scattered around the spectrum.

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COT is showing gold as the top bullish asset although there was a change in last week's positioning to the downside. NIKKEI and RUSSELL were the strongest changes to the upside. The 10 year bond note saw an aggressive sell off as well. With gold and bonds at the bottom of the list, this could be another sign of risk-appetite increasing.

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Retail sales are not impressive in the US. However, seeing this trend has been flat for a few months, it may help inflation continue lower which is still hovering above 3%. PMI and GDP numbers come out this week and will further indicate Fed cues on interest rates in September.

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Here are my general thoughts on a possible Trump presidency:

I do think stocks could continue higher due to his proposed business tax cuts & perceived pro business policies.

A Trump presidencies' impact on inflation & the economy is hotly debated, and I can't say for sure what I think his policies would do.

If I had to guess, business strength and GDP might grow, but inflation and national debt may also rise.

I lean bullish on gold & stocks. - Nick

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Gold finally sees a day of green this morning after a four day losing streak. Price is now up against a steep upward trend line which could act as resistance. Risk-off sentiment had been driving demand to the dollar this time around, but that bias could be dwindling. Yields are slightly down today which could be prompting the metal higher.

Small caps are back after a long period of lagging behind the rest of the market. The highly interest rate sensitive index is now reacting bullishly to earnings season and the anticipation of lower rates this year. Price could continue to test resistance around $226 again on IWM as the market recovers from the lows of last week.

Despite the potential rotation out of tech stocks, price still appears bullish on the 1D timeframe. The NAS tested a long term support line from April and is now rebounding. Today’s candle also appears bullish if it closes this way. TSLA and GOOG are just two big names in tech reporting this week, so there could be growing optimism on the tech index.

European PMIs coming in light this morning. Rate cuts still seem to be the likely direction globally in my view! - Nick

(Gold📈German & French stock markets 📉)

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