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Gold is now at +10 as the trend reading suggests further upside and retail is no longer majority long. Some reasons why gold is not moving so much this week is that 1: there is not a lot of major news in the US, and 2: investors could be waiting for CPI data.

Next week's inflation report could cause an increase in volatility for USD-related assets such as gold. If we look at the latest jobs report which showed a cooling in the market after NFP's dramatic miss in expectations, a higher or unchanged CPI could reignite stagflation fears. Gold tends to thrive off this sort of economic scenario in the US.

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The stock market has been very resilient towards a cooling jobs market and the fears of "higher for longer" interest rates. This week and the weeks to come will be full of heavy earnings news as NVDA is to report on May 22. This slow melt up could just be a reaction to the less hawkish Fed tone and earnings season.

However, upside seems limited now that we are back near all time highs. With CPI in focus, it could serve as the single most pivotal indicator of risk sentiment in the market. We already have the numbers for NFP, so a higher or lower CPI is going to impact the indices. Higher CPI could likely cause a sell off in the stock market while a lower CPI could indicate a reemergence of risk appetite.

GBPUSD is now a neutral reading on the EdgeFinder due to several factors. There is mixed sentiment in the pair's fundamental score and a clear bearish bias in the sentiment score. Retail is now over 60% long this pair while COT is buying dollar and selling GBP.

Similar to the US indices, a higher CPI is likely not going to be bullish for GU. The BoE was decidedly unchanged in interest rates, so now it depends on the next inflation data for both the US and UK.

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Retail is now long crypto, metals, GU and Russell. Mixed positions are in gold, UJ, USDCAD, US30 while EU, NAS, and SPX500.

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Gold is still looking bullish according to our sentiment indicator between retail and smart money. COT remains majority bullish while the crowd is selling the metal this week.

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With NFP lower and unemployment claims coming in much higher than expected over the last several weeks, investors need a lower CPI number next week in order to keep a bullish bias on the indices. If not, gold may be seen as the new buy for 2024 as the Fed has to battle with worse economic conditions and higher inflation.

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Gold Daily Chart:

Are the bulls back? With cooling economic data tied with sticky inflation, gold's rally looks supported.

Support held on the daily chart, where I was able to get a long entry in our VIP signals room.

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- Nick

The VIX is testing the lows on a rising trend line. We should watch for a bounce on this level and a possible retest at the 11.85 level. This is another indication that volatility may pick up in the coming month or so. Watching this index for the time being as the stock markets near all time highs. -Frank

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Gold comes up close to retest the highs at $2,400 on rising yields and bullish dollar sentiment to end the week. This metal might be a good hedge against higher or lower inflation numbers in the US next week. I think this because a lower CPI could relieve fears of rate hikes or a sooner rate cut. And a higher CPI could indicate stagflation. Both scenarios are good for gold. Price has already broken above a key resistance level and needs to close above by the end of today to suggest further highs. -Frank

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S&P 500 Daily Chart:

The indices have enjoyed a strong recovery in recent weeks, as expectations have risen for rate cuts this year, and we've seen a solid earnings season overall.

However - as we approach all time highs, all eyes are on inflation data this week! Will CPI & PPI help us to break through resistance?

I'm a bit hesitant, but a bull if we see a breakout.

- Nick