With the help of AAPL, tech stocks move higher on the day, further past the potential falling trend line. If price can close above this resistance level, it may suggest that we have seen a reversal back up to the highs. The jobs report and PMI was not good news for the economy, but it might have given investors some relief from the rate hike fears that the Fed might have to do. The market opened up higher and since then, there has been little volatility intraday. Next week does not have any big news in the US, so there's a chance that the sentiment might continue off the NFP report. Next news event is in two weeks for CPI
-Frank

Gold is a different story from the indices. Although catching support on the 1D timeframe, price has not really moved despite falling yields and worse economic data in the US. The dollar is also stubborn. It caught support and pared most of its losses on the day. There is some divergence between the overall sentiment around the dollar. Higher rates for longer seems to be the new narrative, so it would be good for yields/dollar. However, with a rate hike off the table for now, the metal should be experiencing bullishness. There is a lot to consider right now, but we can likely expect a lot of back and forth for the dollar related assets. Going into next week, it might be another battle between the bulls and bears like we've seen the past couple weeks

-Frank

Despite lower than expected jobs data today - the DXY still rallied back from the lows, and seems to be holding support on the daily chart...

Have a great weekend everyone!

- Nick

As we come off a few weeks of heavy news in the US, earnings continue to roll out in the stock market. EURUSD is now flashing bullish signs after investors digested the Fed as somewhat eased the fears of a rate hike in the US.

The risk-on trades look to be more optimistic as COT showed a slowdown in USD interest while upping the ante on currencies such as EUR in last week's report. Europe also has no major news events this week so it may just play off the stock market sentiment.
- Frank

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Gold begins the week in the green after nearly a month of downside. Price is now above the support on the 1D timeframe and is testing Friday's high. Smart money is still buying the metal despite falling yields and risk-on sentiment returning.

Geopolitical tensions are still causing issues on the supply side, but China seems pretty bullish on gold who has been buying for some time. The 12% rise from the start of the year suggests the lack of optimism in equities and possibly the dollar too.

- Frank

Small caps are the only bearish reading on the indices, however. Retail seems to be a heavy influence in the latest stock market rally as COT is selling the indices. The interpretation of Fed sentiment seems skewed in the sense that investors are looking for any excuse to drive prices higher.

The issue I have with stocks right now is that we went from several rate cuts this year, with the expectations of them starting as early as December 2023. Now cut forecasts keep getting pushed back further and further into the latter half of the year, and there might not even be one in 2024.

- Frank

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Retail is majority long oil, crypto, metals, USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY. They are also short the SPX500, GU, EU, AU and NU. The sentiment this week seems to be bearish dollar and bullish risk-on.

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- Nick

Smart Money is selling oil, indices, and ten year notes. This is a sign that the institutions are getting more risk off going into the week.

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Last week's NFP report in the US came out much weaker than expected after seeing a steady climb in forecasts. A cooling jobs market could indicate pessimism in the US economy even if it means no rate hikes. This is especially true if CPI comes in higher or does not move next week.

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EUR/USD
EU comes up to test a long term resistance level on the 1D timeframe. This level is a falling trend line started at the beginning of the year. Short sellers may look to use this opportunity to move price lower. However, if the US stock market continues to move higher, it may propel the pair higher above the trend line. We need to watch for the break on the EU pair to see if it closes above that line. -Frank

Gold
Still need to talk about gold even though it is not really moving today. The recent fall in yields has not really helped the price of gold. The US 2 year yield now sits at support around 4.8% on the 1D timeframe and may look to move higher. If policy remains strict from the Fed, it might be tough for gold to move up. But if we start to get an indication that the Fed may want to still cut this year, gold might be more optimistic. -Frank

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NAS100
The NASDAQ continues to push higher this week as earnings roll out. Price is near all-time highs again sitting just 2% below. Similar to gold, the index trades against the yields. Seeing lower yields will likely be bullish for the stock market. The US02Y just needs to break a strong support level to do so. If NAS100 touches the highs, it could also indicate buyer exhaustion should yields stay where they are. -Frank