Gold remains bullish at a +3 buy rating, however, the latest inflation and unemployment rates came in lower and the score shows a weaker reading. On a technical reading, gold's trend is forecasted to go upward in the short term as April is a positive month for the metal. Retail is very short gold while institutions continue to pour money into the long side.

Now that the Fed is looking to hike once again in May, we'll have to keep an eye on COT data this Friday to capture some insight on where the metal could go. Although the dollar looks extremely weak as of late, smart money could be buying into the dip as inflation comes down and interest is expected to hit 5.25% next month.

USOil jolted higher as fears of recession build in the US economy. OPEC meetings last week mentioned a surprise cut in oil production leading the commodity's price higher. Oil broke above a significant level of resistance around the 81.90s. Yesterday's close above that level was a promising sign for the bulls.

At the same time, USOil's EdgeFinder score has flipped from a strong sell to a neutral reading. The main drivers for this score are mostly technicals as COT is heavily interested in the commodity and the trend reading is stronger to the upside.

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Retail is strongly against gold while mixed with oil. The crowd has been mostly against these commodities for some time although price continues to push higher. Since April began, oil's price has gone up by over 4.50% and gold has risen nearly 4%.

Maybe Frank was right...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_0RzQtcI6U

USD/JPY Analysis
UJ sitting right below a strong buy score on the EdgeFinder as the pair creeps up another 0.41% this morning. USDJPY established a higher high on the 1D timeframe and looks to be heading towards 135.265. Price can find support on the rising trend line if the pair gets another pullback.

Institutions are Betting BIG on Gold & Oil: Nick & Frank Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKLgJXPu3Bw

USOil Analysis
Oil prices rise with the stock market today after pulling back from the recent highs of 83.40s. There is some heavy rejection from the support on the 4H timeframe which suggests buying pressure. Last Friday’s COT report showed an increase in institutional longs for this commodity. If smart money can push price higher, we might have to wait on a confirmation of a break on the falling trend line.

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Nick's gold signals...

Institutions are still very long gold 🧠

USDJPY looks increasingly bullish as price keeps pushing higher despite a dollar decline. The EdgeFinder is going back and forth between a +5 and +6 strong buy score. The retail crowd is mostly mixed sentiment while COT is not making any big moves on either currency.

The most likely factor that could shift the score to a strong buy again would be if the crowd goes short this pair. Seasonality shows this pair historically has the best month in the first half of the year this month. The two fundamental metrics that USD struggles with over the Yen is inflation and unemployment.

SPX500 now lower on the day as bank earnings continue to roll out. We're seeing some selling pressure on the 1D timeframe during an uptrend since March. The way price has moved on this timeframe suggests that the index wants to complete its move higher towards the $4300 level. However, it's hard to tell in the short term where earnings will take price.

Smart money is still over 70% short SPX and retail agrees this time. There aren't many setups we see on this index because the short term is extremely uncertain. Heavy bearish news and extreme optimism on both sides makes for a difficult market to trade in.

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USOil is currently reading neutral on the EdgeFinder. This brings our attention because it was recently a strong sell at -7 in late March. Now its at +2 which suggests that the EF is flipping sentiment on the commodity. Who knows how long we'll see a neutral or even a buy rating, but with production cuts in the last OPEC meeting, we could see more demand in this market.

One metric that shows lots of promise for the asset is that smart money continues to grow interest. Oil is now a little over 80% long by institutions. Retail is mixed. It seems rare to find an asset on the EdgeFinder that's also a neutral rating. That's what makes this asset look increasingly bullish.

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