The S&P is very volatile this week, with earnings season well on its way. I'm looking for pullbacks!

GBPUSD looking ready for a possible break higher. With UK CPI coming in hotter than expected (staying above 10%...), the bank of England looks very likely to raise rates and continue tightening.

This, tied with the fed potentially plateauing rates, could be a strong move

Interestingly, retail client positioning shows a strong sell bias on the pair. This could be another bullish indicator.

Smart money has been increasing positions on this hot commodity since the OPEC meeting where they discussed cutting production. China’s recent GDP data was negatively interpreted by the market which caused another sell off in oil. The EdgeFinder doesn’t have a strong bias on oil, but it has shifted its bias from a strong sell. This is an indication that momentum could shift into oil’s favor. Petroleum prices are expected to rise according to some analysts yet price is going on a five day decline. As price falls, it appears that institutions are scaling in, portrayed by COT data. The question is when price will shift back to the upside, but as long as smart money is interested, it should be something to look out for.

On Market Insights today Nick discussed earnings reports, UK inflation, the federal reserve, and more! Checkout the full podcast here:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7qSL1b0J54hbNwDtJSMGHF?si=_6BmkZJsSYq82MmMrXHKmQ?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=OGM_US_MITN_Pod_190423

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USDJPY has been on a steady uptrend for the past 4 weeks despite a dollar decline and volatile S&P. The EdgeFinder still puts this pair at a +5 buy with seasonality and trend reading pointing to the upside. The advantage of trading dollar-yen is its correlation to both the dollar and stock market. Dollar strength and stock strength are both good for this pair.

Retail sentiment is still showing a neutral score on the scanner although there is a slight lean to the short side on this pair. The next 3 months have historically been positive on a 10-year average, and so far, the gains have been overall trending upward since the beginning of the year.

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EURUSD bulls - keep an eye out! A break & retest trade could be setting up soon.

Smart money seems very bullish on the Euro, with a significant increase in positioning in long contracts. The USD in comparison shows less long interest, with a slight increase in both long & short positions.

EURJPY is another potential play to the long side. This is partly due to smart money showing heavy buy interest in the euro as well as short interest in the yen. This pair is also scored at +5 on the EdgeFinder. EUR fundamental are not as strong as technicals when comparing the two currencies. It's hard to beat Japan in inflation as they carry a negative interest rate. However, the Euro-area is likely subject to a higher economic growth potential than Japan.

On the 1D timeframe, price is pulling back after testing a previous high around the $148s. If a double top is established, we could see a test down towards the $145s. If we see a break however, there could be enough momentum to take price higher towards the $149s.

The Japanese stock market index is one of the strongest scores on the EdgeFinder as well. At a +5 buy rating, most metrics point in the index's favor versus the yen. Seasonality is historically bullish for the market as the trend reading is also plotting a fairly steep projection for the next seven days.

Retail is largely short in the stock market, but smart money is long. Institutions are also short yen. Seasonality is bullish for the next 4 months. Investors may interpret the recent jobless claims as a less hawkish Fed going into May. This could also be bullish for JP225 as the Japanese market index mirrors a lot of the SPX's moves.

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The crowd is heavy long kiwi as those currencies are performing the worst today. GBP looks mixed as well as the EUR. It seems like most retail traders are mixed USD too. The crowd's longest on NZDCHF, AUDCHF and EURCHF. They are also mostly short USDZAR, AUDNZD and EURNZD.

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The $GBPUSD stays strong despite the $USD jumping on PMI numbers today. I think a return back to the highs could be in the cards next week.

Support held well on Friday, with a strong uptrend on the 4H & Daily charts.

A break above the previous highs could introduce new buying!

Retail positioning is very bearish - which in my view is a bullish indicator.

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Live reaction to PMI!🔥👀

Full podcast episode, out now:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3d2n2rzfeArkHu1cjCA5Yb?si=dCID2QcRScWNe0URfMaI7g?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=OGM_US_MITN_Pod_210423

This past Saturday, A1 Trading put on our first in person trading seminar thanks to the help of OANDA. The trading seminar, led by A1 Trading founder Trader Nick, was focused on fundamental analysis and how to build a successful strategy.

A1 Trading guests flew into Atlanta to attend this event and meet our team from Virginia, Michigan, and other areas of the United States. What an amazing opportunity it was to get to meet face to face with some of our regular guests from our Youtube livestreams and people who have been supporting our content for years. It was a great reminder of just how amazing the trading community is. Thank you to everyone who came out to the event!

A huge thank you to Sven and Jason from the OANDA team for reaching out about this opportunity and helping it come to life! OANDA has been our top recommended broker for US traders since we began our channel so we were proud to work directly with them to host this event!