EUR/JPY Analysis
EJ test a resistance level again around the 144.200s and is showing strong momentum to the upside. The Yen looks weaker as of late due to the COT reports making it the most shorted currency on the market. Price action may lead to a test around the double top at 145.600s. Because this is such a key level, and the pair has a handful of attempts here, we may see a break to higher on euro strength.

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NZD/CAD Analysis
Kiwi-CAD looks to have momentum to the downside on the 1D timeframe. Price has been in a downward channel for several months and may continue its move lower. It looks like price may complete the move to the bottom of the flag pattern around 0.82900s. CAD has not been very strong, but COT has a heavy interest in oil which is by default, bullish for Canada’s currency.

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SPX touches the top of a falling trend line last week and could not break higher. It looked like there would be a second test before today’s candle shook price lower. COT shows a decrease in long activity overall. In the mid term, the index could come down to test the bottom of the wedge which is around $3900s.

At +3 on the EdgeFinder, stocks are looking at a positive growth month for the month of April. A reason why this could be a momentum play is the fact that smart money is not as interested in the stock market right now.

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The crowd is between mixed and bearish sentiment around commodities and indices. GER30 (Germany) being the most bearish among retail, and JP225 (Japan) being the most bullish. This week is going to have lots of economic data which will likely cause more mixed sentiment and range-bound assets.

🔥 Floating +90.30 pips on GBPJPY
Latest update: “Locking in more profit here on GBPJPY! Nice pop and hold above support. Stop loss just behind market structure.“

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In terms of upside, it looks like SPX has potential to move higher, but there is more room to the downside. Yesterday's 1D candle suggested buying pressure, however, price is still in a consolidation zone. Higher CPI tomorrow would indicate another rate hike by the Fed is likely. If CPI comes in lower than that 6% in February, it could mean that the Fed is less worried about rate hikes.

Price also cannot seem to break above a falling trend line on the 1D timeframe which it has been respecting since August of last year. COT suggest institutional bearishness as well. I think we could expect a breakout if CPI comes in lower, but there is probably not enough strength to push price higher than the falling trend line.

Nice movement here on Frank’s USDJPY trade! Floating +35.20 pips now 👏

Our Smart Money Tracker measures change in COT activity each week. A pattern we have been noticing is that institutions are staying long in JP225, USOil, and gold. At the same time, they remain bearish on assets like JPY, CAD and SPX/NAS. When big money buys into a falling asset, it's a sign that price is getting ready to shift as we have seen in the Japanese stock market and oil.

GBPJPY won’t quit! Stops trailed 🤝

Of the three risk off currencies, Swiss's unemployment rate remains the healthiest. The US continues to struggle with unemployment in comparison even though the rate came down last week from 3.6%. One thing investors are concerned about is whether or not the Fed will decide to take another rate hike after NFP beat expectations and drew UE rates down a tad.

It will be important to monitor US unemployment as well as CPI this upcoming Wednesday for future Fed predictions.

EUR/JPY Analysis
Euro-Yen is sitting at a +5 buy, right on the cusp of a strong reading. The pair has been on an impressive run to the upside that may likely continue through the month of April. With seasonality and the trend reading forecasting positive growth, the pair EJ could hit its mid-term target around 146.078. The most plausible factor that could flip the pair to a strong buy would be if EUR could show signs of positive GDP growth. Lower inflation is probably something that Japan will likely be better at than the Euro-area. Retail remains strongly bearish regardless of institutional interest on the rise. Still, EUR will have to improve economically (lower unemployment and lower GDP growth) before looking like a strong buy against the Yen.

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🔥 Floating +191.00 pips on GBPJPY
Latest update on the trade: "Trailing stops here on GJ prior to the news! What a crazy move 📈 "

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Feeling pretty good about how I traded GBP/JPY!

I went long on a break/retest, and price rocketed up by ~200 pips. I trailed stops twice, and was tagged out on today's PPI news, which caused the pair to drop.

- Nick

Today's inflation report on PPI came in lower than expected, indicating a decline in the rate of inflation overall. In the FOMC meeting minutes, the Fed expects to hike again in May. The market is taking in this news as well as mixed economic data. The dollar tumbled as a result, and gold is on the rise.