A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures
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EUR/USD Analysis
ECB is set to raise rates by another 50 bp in February and March. Price fell today and is looking like it might have topped in the short run. Although the pair established a higher high, the inverted hammer candle suggests downside towards support around 1.07410. The US and Europe have Flash Manufacturing numbers later this week which will likely add more volatility to the pair.
Gold Analysis
Gold falls off resistance on the 1D timeframe after establishing a higher high. COT showed an increase in long contracts for the metal so there is still a high interest. Price may continue to follow this trend of higher lows and highs until price hits the $2000 mark. The expectation of looser monetary tightening from the Fed, gold may continue to move higher.
SPX500 Analysis
The index broke above a falling trend line on the 1D timeframe but has yet to close above that level. The close would solidify the break and point towards higher prices in the near future. The index has respected this trend line for a whole year now, so a break would be a huge directional change.
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GBPUSD bulls are watching as price retests 4H support this morning, let's see if it can hold. If this level breaks, and we begin to see a bearish trend pick up, I will be looking for pullbacks to sell into.
GBPJPY falling apart at the highs here, failing to break above 161.50. Looking for bearish setups from here.
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GBPNZD is still the Edgefinder's strongest sell. Price fell significantly from the recent highs and is working downward towards support at a rising trend line. It also looks like a wedge is forming on the 1D timeframe which could be bullish for the pair. GBPNZD has respected this level for almost a year, even in September 2022 where there was a huge fakeout. Retail is 88% long regardless. If you are looking to long this pair, the bottom of the wedge may be something to consider in the near future. For now, it looks like the trend will continue downward to test that level
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The interest rate page on the Edgefinder is very helpful in comparing the strengths of different currency pairs. By using the filter, we can compare the CAD against the USD, GBP and CHF. Today, Canada is expected to raise their rates by another 25 basis points which would put it at par with the dollar. CAD pairs should be something to consider today and after the rate news because it could signify a momentum shift on certain pairs. NZDCAD has been running high for some time, but if BOC decides to notch up rates, it could pivot price direction.
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NZDCAD changes from a +7 score to a +6 after Canada raised their interest rates by another 25 bp which topped the kiwi. The CAD is now on par with the dollar and tied for first. The recent score drop could be the start of a reversal but it is still too early to tell. The pair is down this morning but still has an upward trend overall. Support is at 0.86160