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EU Economic Heatmap
All eyes are on the Eurozone tomorrow with PMIs and the ECB rate decision set to drop — two key catalysts that could shape the next move for the Euro.
PMIs are expected to tick slightly higher, which would be a welcomed sign for growth across the bloc. Recent prints have been mixed, but an upside surprise could reinforce confidence in the recovery narrative.
As for the ECB, rates are expected to remain unchanged. Inflation has cooled, but not convincingly enough to trigger another cut — especially with sticky services prices and global tariff uncertainties in play. The press conference afterward will be key for any guidance on the September meeting
All eyes are on the Eurozone tomorrow with PMIs and the ECB rate decision set to drop — two key catalysts that could shape the next move for the Euro.
PMIs are expected to tick slightly higher, which would be a welcomed sign for growth across the bloc. Recent prints have been mixed, but an upside surprise could reinforce confidence in the recovery narrative.
As for the ECB, rates are expected to remain unchanged. Inflation has cooled, but not convincingly enough to trigger another cut — especially with sticky services prices and global tariff uncertainties in play. The press conference afterward will be key for any guidance on the September meeting
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🛎️ Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does a support level often indicate?
What does a support level often indicate?
Anonymous Quiz
83%
Buying interest
2%
Overvaluation
3%
Volatility
12%
Trend reversal
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EUR/USD – Rates Held, Uncertainty Remains
EUR/USD saw some recovery this week, trading as high as 1.17900 before breaking a short-term trendline this morning following the ECB’s latest decision.
The central bank held rates at 2.15% — no surprise there. After four cuts already this year, the ECB is in wait-and-see mode, especially with inflation sitting right on target at 2%. But it’s not just inflation they’re watching.
Traders are keeping a close eye on trade talks with the U.S. ahead of the looming August 1 tariff deadline. The base case is a 15% U.S. tariff on EU goods, though some are still holding out hope for a smaller deal or targeted exemptions.
That cloud of uncertainty is hanging over the Euro, even as economic data like PMIs come in relatively stable. Whether EUR/USD holds or breaks lower from here may depend on how those trade headlines evolve
EUR/USD saw some recovery this week, trading as high as 1.17900 before breaking a short-term trendline this morning following the ECB’s latest decision.
The central bank held rates at 2.15% — no surprise there. After four cuts already this year, the ECB is in wait-and-see mode, especially with inflation sitting right on target at 2%. But it’s not just inflation they’re watching.
Traders are keeping a close eye on trade talks with the U.S. ahead of the looming August 1 tariff deadline. The base case is a 15% U.S. tariff on EU goods, though some are still holding out hope for a smaller deal or targeted exemptions.
That cloud of uncertainty is hanging over the Euro, even as economic data like PMIs come in relatively stable. Whether EUR/USD holds or breaks lower from here may depend on how those trade headlines evolve
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USD/JPY – Bounce from Support
USD/JPY found buyers at 146.000, a level that’s acted as solid support. On the upside, 148.000 remains the key resistance to watch — price has struggled to break and hold above that zone.
Fundamentally, the tone out of Japan has turned a bit more optimistic. Deputy Governor Uchida noted that the trade deal with the U.S. has helped reduce economic uncertainty, which opened the door to speculation around potential rate hikes down the line.
Still, political clouds linger. With the ruling coalition weakened after Sunday’s election, and talk of a possible no-confidence motion, the yen could remain under pressure in the short-term.
USD/JPY found buyers at 146.000, a level that’s acted as solid support. On the upside, 148.000 remains the key resistance to watch — price has struggled to break and hold above that zone.
Fundamentally, the tone out of Japan has turned a bit more optimistic. Deputy Governor Uchida noted that the trade deal with the U.S. has helped reduce economic uncertainty, which opened the door to speculation around potential rate hikes down the line.
Still, political clouds linger. With the ruling coalition weakened after Sunday’s election, and talk of a possible no-confidence motion, the yen could remain under pressure in the short-term.
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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
Closing another +30 pips on NZDCAD today 🔥 Tapping into resistance, and reducing my long NZD exposure (I have multiple open positions on it atm). I'll take it! - Nick
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👍8
Economic Surprise Meter – Quiet Climb from USD
The EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter shows a steady pickup in U.S. economic strength — with the USD now at 62%, slowly grinding higher. That move’s been quietly mirrored in price action across dollar pairs.
Today’s key data:
🇪🇺 EU PMI's
🇪🇺 EU Rate Decision
🇬🇧 UK PMI's
🇨🇦 Canada Retail Sales
These releases have the potential to shake up charts and sentiment across the board.
Fundamentals matter — and the EdgeFinder helps you stay one step ahead. Don’t miss the next market move.
The EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter shows a steady pickup in U.S. economic strength — with the USD now at 62%, slowly grinding higher. That move’s been quietly mirrored in price action across dollar pairs.
Today’s key data:
🇪🇺 EU PMI's
🇪🇺 EU Rate Decision
🇬🇧 UK PMI's
🇨🇦 Canada Retail Sales
These releases have the potential to shake up charts and sentiment across the board.
Fundamentals matter — and the EdgeFinder helps you stay one step ahead. Don’t miss the next market move.
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🛎️ Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When inflation is high, central banks often…
When inflation is high, central banks often…
Anonymous Quiz
39%
Cut interest rates
54%
Raise interest rates
7%
Sell gold
0%
Intervene in FX
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Gold – Pulling Back After Rejection
Gold is on pace for the third straight session of losses after a strong rally earlier in the week. Price rejected the $3,440 resistance zone — now marking the fourth failed attempt at that level. Gold is back near the middle of its defined range, an area where it’s historically seen consolidation and choppy behavior as the market awaits new direction.
One potential catalyst? Progress on a U.S.–EU trade deal. Headlines suggest the two sides are nearing an agreement, modeled somewhat after Washington’s recent pact with Japan. The deal would include a 15% tariff — lower than the originally proposed 30% — and is easing safe-haven demand for now.
Looking ahead, gold may remain rangebound unless we get a surprise shift in risk sentiment, interest rate expectations, or trade headlines
Gold is on pace for the third straight session of losses after a strong rally earlier in the week. Price rejected the $3,440 resistance zone — now marking the fourth failed attempt at that level. Gold is back near the middle of its defined range, an area where it’s historically seen consolidation and choppy behavior as the market awaits new direction.
One potential catalyst? Progress on a U.S.–EU trade deal. Headlines suggest the two sides are nearing an agreement, modeled somewhat after Washington’s recent pact with Japan. The deal would include a 15% tariff — lower than the originally proposed 30% — and is easing safe-haven demand for now.
Looking ahead, gold may remain rangebound unless we get a surprise shift in risk sentiment, interest rate expectations, or trade headlines
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GBP/USD – Growth Concerns Take Center Stage
The pound is pulling back, now trading near 1.3430 after stalling out around the 1.3580 mark — a two-week high. The pair is sitting on a familiar support zone, an area that’s held up in the past. But price action on the daily chart is hinting at a potential head and shoulders top. A confirmed break lower could open the door toward the next key level at 1.3200.
Recent UK data has shifted the narrative from inflation to growth. June retail sales rebounded by just 0.9% after May’s drop was revised even lower. Core sales missed as well, rising only 0.6% versus expectations of 1.2%. Despite weather-driven strength in food sales, the broader rebound remains weak.
With soft PMIs and sluggish consumer data, markets are leaning toward a BoE rate cut in August, with another potentially on deck before year-end.
The pound is pulling back, now trading near 1.3430 after stalling out around the 1.3580 mark — a two-week high. The pair is sitting on a familiar support zone, an area that’s held up in the past. But price action on the daily chart is hinting at a potential head and shoulders top. A confirmed break lower could open the door toward the next key level at 1.3200.
Recent UK data has shifted the narrative from inflation to growth. June retail sales rebounded by just 0.9% after May’s drop was revised even lower. Core sales missed as well, rising only 0.6% versus expectations of 1.2%. Despite weather-driven strength in food sales, the broader rebound remains weak.
With soft PMIs and sluggish consumer data, markets are leaning toward a BoE rate cut in August, with another potentially on deck before year-end.
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EdgeFinder's FX Scanner - GBP/USD
GBP/USD pulled back following a weaker-than-expected UK retail sales report and fading inflation fears. Core retail sales also disappointed, missing forecasts
This shift in tone — from inflation concerns to growth worries — is weighing on the pound. Combined with soft PMIs and a rising unemployment rate, markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of England rate cut in August. The EdgeFinder reflects this with a score of -7, confirming strong bearish pressure
Looking under the hood:
- COT Data shows institutions are lightening up on GBP exposure, while USD positioning leans slightly bearish but improved
- Retail Sentiment: Mixed
- Economic Growth Metrics: Retail sales (-2), services PMI (-1), and unemployment (-2) all paint a weak outlook
- Interest Rate Outlook: GBP sees a -1 score as cut expectations increase, while USD scores a +1 amid steadier Fed guidance
Markets will be watching closely for more clarity in next week’s BoE guidance and US data releases
GBP/USD pulled back following a weaker-than-expected UK retail sales report and fading inflation fears. Core retail sales also disappointed, missing forecasts
This shift in tone — from inflation concerns to growth worries — is weighing on the pound. Combined with soft PMIs and a rising unemployment rate, markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of England rate cut in August. The EdgeFinder reflects this with a score of -7, confirming strong bearish pressure
Looking under the hood:
- COT Data shows institutions are lightening up on GBP exposure, while USD positioning leans slightly bearish but improved
- Retail Sentiment: Mixed
- Economic Growth Metrics: Retail sales (-2), services PMI (-1), and unemployment (-2) all paint a weak outlook
- Interest Rate Outlook: GBP sees a -1 score as cut expectations increase, while USD scores a +1 amid steadier Fed guidance
Markets will be watching closely for more clarity in next week’s BoE guidance and US data releases
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🛎️ Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does the unemployment rate measure?
What does the unemployment rate measure?
Anonymous Quiz
6%
Interest rate changes
6%
Inflation trends
87%
% of people without jobs
2%
Stock market movement
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EUR/USD – A Weekend Trade Deal Was Made
EUR/USD broke sharply lower after the U.S. and EU finalized a trade agreement over the weekend. The pair had been riding a steep uptrend since July 17, peaking near 1.17800 — but that move quickly reversed with the weekend news. Price fell aggressively to the 1.1650s, with the next key support down at 1.15800.
The trade deal included a 15% tariff on EU exports — half the 30% originally floated. Aircraft parts and certain chemicals are exempt, and auto tariffs were reduced. While it removes uncertainty, many EU officials see the agreement as imbalanced. Markets had largely priced in a resolution, which may explain the swift reversal.
The move favors the USD for now, as safe-haven demand eases and the Fed remains in focus with its rate decision later this week. The euro’s broader trend will depend on how this deal impacts growth expectations and future ECB guidance. Until then, price may hover near support as markets reassess positioning
EUR/USD broke sharply lower after the U.S. and EU finalized a trade agreement over the weekend. The pair had been riding a steep uptrend since July 17, peaking near 1.17800 — but that move quickly reversed with the weekend news. Price fell aggressively to the 1.1650s, with the next key support down at 1.15800.
The trade deal included a 15% tariff on EU exports — half the 30% originally floated. Aircraft parts and certain chemicals are exempt, and auto tariffs were reduced. While it removes uncertainty, many EU officials see the agreement as imbalanced. Markets had largely priced in a resolution, which may explain the swift reversal.
The move favors the USD for now, as safe-haven demand eases and the Fed remains in focus with its rate decision later this week. The euro’s broader trend will depend on how this deal impacts growth expectations and future ECB guidance. Until then, price may hover near support as markets reassess positioning
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Gold – Stabilizing After Trade Deal Shake-Up
Gold gave back early gains as dollar strength returned following news of a US-EU trade agreement. The deal includes a 15% tariff on most European goods—automobiles and semiconductors among them—while the EU agreed to a $750B commitment in US energy and military assets.
While the deal reduced some global uncertainty, it also tilted the scale in the dollar’s favor, cooling safe-haven demand for gold. Traders are now turning attention to a possible extension of the US-China trade truce, with negotiators meeting today to avoid new tariffs.
Markets are also eyeing this week’s jam-packed data calendar. The Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday could shift sentiment, especially alongside NFP, ADP, JOLTS, and the PCE index—all of which will help shape inflation expectations. Until then, gold may chop around as investors weigh the evolving macro backdrop.
Gold gave back early gains as dollar strength returned following news of a US-EU trade agreement. The deal includes a 15% tariff on most European goods—automobiles and semiconductors among them—while the EU agreed to a $750B commitment in US energy and military assets.
While the deal reduced some global uncertainty, it also tilted the scale in the dollar’s favor, cooling safe-haven demand for gold. Traders are now turning attention to a possible extension of the US-China trade truce, with negotiators meeting today to avoid new tariffs.
Markets are also eyeing this week’s jam-packed data calendar. The Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday could shift sentiment, especially alongside NFP, ADP, JOLTS, and the PCE index—all of which will help shape inflation expectations. Until then, gold may chop around as investors weigh the evolving macro backdrop.
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