🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does GDP measure?
What does GDP measure?
Anonymous Quiz
4%
Stock market performance
3%
Interest rates
88%
Economic growth
5%
Inflation
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USD/CHF – Eyeing the Next Breakout?
USD/CHF broke out of last week’s tight range after pushing above 0.7994, gaining momentum. That breakout gave bulls room to run, and today we’re seeing price test a major resistance zone between 0.8039 and 0.8055.
If buyers stay in control, the next upside levels to watch are the 200-period moving average on the 4H near 0.8077, a key zone that could decide whether this bounce has more legs.
Since the May peak near 0.8475, USD/CHF trended down aggressively, bottoming out near 0.7871, its lowest level since 2011. This recent bounce is notable, but it’ll take more than a couple green candles to flip the broader trend.
For now, near-term support sits at 0.8017, with stronger structure back near 0.7986–0.7994 — the area that kicked off this week’s move.
USD/CHF broke out of last week’s tight range after pushing above 0.7994, gaining momentum. That breakout gave bulls room to run, and today we’re seeing price test a major resistance zone between 0.8039 and 0.8055.
If buyers stay in control, the next upside levels to watch are the 200-period moving average on the 4H near 0.8077, a key zone that could decide whether this bounce has more legs.
Since the May peak near 0.8475, USD/CHF trended down aggressively, bottoming out near 0.7871, its lowest level since 2011. This recent bounce is notable, but it’ll take more than a couple green candles to flip the broader trend.
For now, near-term support sits at 0.8017, with stronger structure back near 0.7986–0.7994 — the area that kicked off this week’s move.
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GBP/USD – Nearing Support
GBP/USD is approaching the 1.34000 zone — a level that held mid-June. The pair has been sliding since hitting resistance at 1.37000, and how price reacts here could give clues about trend continuation or a potential bounce. If this level breaks, the next support to watch is 1.32000.
Markets whipsawed yesterday on rumors that the White House was planning to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The speculation sparked a Dollar selloff — but once debunked, the DXY quickly recovered.
Today’s focus is on U.S. Retail Sales — a key measure of consumer spending. A strong print would support the case for a resilient economy and give the Dollar a lift. On the flip side, a weaker number could indicate rate cuts
GBP/USD is approaching the 1.34000 zone — a level that held mid-June. The pair has been sliding since hitting resistance at 1.37000, and how price reacts here could give clues about trend continuation or a potential bounce. If this level breaks, the next support to watch is 1.32000.
Markets whipsawed yesterday on rumors that the White House was planning to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The speculation sparked a Dollar selloff — but once debunked, the DXY quickly recovered.
Today’s focus is on U.S. Retail Sales — a key measure of consumer spending. A strong print would support the case for a resilient economy and give the Dollar a lift. On the flip side, a weaker number could indicate rate cuts
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EdgeFinder's Retail Sales Chart – Surprise Higher
Retail Sales data just dropped — and it was a beat. The market was expecting a modest 0.1% increase, but the actual number came in hot at 0.6%.
Retail Sales tracks consumer spending, which makes up a large portion of U.S. GDP. Strong data typically signals a healthy economy and can delay the need for Fed rate cuts — while weak numbers often point to slowing growth and rising recession risks.
This upside surprise strengthens the case for a more cautious Fed. With inflation still above target and now consumer spending showing resilience, policymakers may have more reason to pause or delay cuts. It also gives the Dollar some tailwind — especially heading into more key data later this week.
Direction-neutral, but worth watching how the market digests this beat
Retail Sales data just dropped — and it was a beat. The market was expecting a modest 0.1% increase, but the actual number came in hot at 0.6%.
Retail Sales tracks consumer spending, which makes up a large portion of U.S. GDP. Strong data typically signals a healthy economy and can delay the need for Fed rate cuts — while weak numbers often point to slowing growth and rising recession risks.
This upside surprise strengthens the case for a more cautious Fed. With inflation still above target and now consumer spending showing resilience, policymakers may have more reason to pause or delay cuts. It also gives the Dollar some tailwind — especially heading into more key data later this week.
Direction-neutral, but worth watching how the market digests this beat
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
FOMO usually causes traders to…
FOMO usually causes traders to…
Anonymous Quiz
73%
Chase price
11%
Take profits early
11%
Enter in desirable prices
4%
Reduce risk
👍13💯4❤3
DXY – Support or Slip?
The US Dollar Index is holding in the $98 range — a level that was previously resistance and may now act as support. DXY broke above this zone after a string of healthy data, and whether it holds here could determine near-term direction. A bounce may signal more upside, while a break lower could confirm continuation of the broader downtrend.
Thursday’s data gave the Dollar some fuel: retail sales beat expectations, and jobless claims dropped to a three-month low. That followed a CPI print earlier in the week — the strongest in five months — reinforcing the idea that the Fed may need to wait longer before cutting.
Rate cut bets have pulled back slightly. Markets are now pricing in about 45bps of easing for the rest of the year — down from 50bps earlier this week.
Still, uncertainties linger. Fiscal concerns from Trump’s tax plan and spending, plus ongoing pressure on the Fed from the White House, keep the outlook murky for Dollar bulls and bears alike.
The US Dollar Index is holding in the $98 range — a level that was previously resistance and may now act as support. DXY broke above this zone after a string of healthy data, and whether it holds here could determine near-term direction. A bounce may signal more upside, while a break lower could confirm continuation of the broader downtrend.
Thursday’s data gave the Dollar some fuel: retail sales beat expectations, and jobless claims dropped to a three-month low. That followed a CPI print earlier in the week — the strongest in five months — reinforcing the idea that the Fed may need to wait longer before cutting.
Rate cut bets have pulled back slightly. Markets are now pricing in about 45bps of easing for the rest of the year — down from 50bps earlier this week.
Still, uncertainties linger. Fiscal concerns from Trump’s tax plan and spending, plus ongoing pressure on the Fed from the White House, keep the outlook murky for Dollar bulls and bears alike.
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USD/JPY – Sitting at Resistance
USD/JPY is trading up near the $148.000 mark — a key level that’s acted as resistance before. Price is now hanging in the upper portion of that range. A clean break and retest, either above or below, could give some insight into where this pair heads next.
Fundamentally, the Yen has been under pressure heading into Sunday’s upper house election in Japan. Polls suggest the ruling party may lose its majority, which adds a layer of political uncertainty — and could muddy the waters in Japan’s ongoing tariff talks with the US
Meanwhile, the Dollar has held firm this week, riding the wave of strong economic data. Tariff negotiations remain a weight on the Yen, especially with Japan still stuck in a deadlock with Washington over autos and agriculture — two politically sensitive areas.
USD/JPY is trading up near the $148.000 mark — a key level that’s acted as resistance before. Price is now hanging in the upper portion of that range. A clean break and retest, either above or below, could give some insight into where this pair heads next.
Fundamentally, the Yen has been under pressure heading into Sunday’s upper house election in Japan. Polls suggest the ruling party may lose its majority, which adds a layer of political uncertainty — and could muddy the waters in Japan’s ongoing tariff talks with the US
Meanwhile, the Dollar has held firm this week, riding the wave of strong economic data. Tariff negotiations remain a weight on the Yen, especially with Japan still stuck in a deadlock with Washington over autos and agriculture — two politically sensitive areas.
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EdgeFinder’s Forex Scanner
US economic data continues to beat expectations, giving the Dollar some support. Meanwhile, political uncertainty looms in Japan ahead of this weekend’s upper house elections. The outcome could impact future fiscal and trade policy — especially with tariff talks still ongoing.
EdgeFinder’s Scanner Highlights:
- COT data shows heavy Yen selling and Dollar buying
- Political uncertainty in Japan
- Retail sentiment remains net short, a contrarian signal
- Seasonality and trend indicators are supportive for the Dollar
- USD/JPY has shown relative strength versus other majors this week
With technicals at resistance and fundamentals heating up, this level could prove pivotal. A breakout or rejection may guide the next leg — one to watch closely
US economic data continues to beat expectations, giving the Dollar some support. Meanwhile, political uncertainty looms in Japan ahead of this weekend’s upper house elections. The outcome could impact future fiscal and trade policy — especially with tariff talks still ongoing.
EdgeFinder’s Scanner Highlights:
- COT data shows heavy Yen selling and Dollar buying
- Political uncertainty in Japan
- Retail sentiment remains net short, a contrarian signal
- Seasonality and trend indicators are supportive for the Dollar
- USD/JPY has shown relative strength versus other majors this week
With technicals at resistance and fundamentals heating up, this level could prove pivotal. A breakout or rejection may guide the next leg — one to watch closely
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What currency is considered a safe haven?
What currency is considered a safe haven?
Anonymous Quiz
13%
Australian Dollar
2%
Mexican Peso
21%
Euro
64%
Japanese Yen
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USD/JPY – Election Results
The Yen rose sharply Monday after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house. USD/JPY dropped nearly 0.9%, with the pair trading near 147.50.
With Japanese markets closed for a public holiday, the Yen became the focal point for political risk sentiment. Despite the election result being mostly priced in, the market reacted with a defensive bid for the Yen. USD/JPY had previously hit a 3.5-month high near 149.19 last week.
While Prime Minister Ishiba vows to remain in power, internal and external pressures are mounting — including uncertainty around the U.S.-Japan tariff deadline on August 1. Markets will be watching Tuesday’s Tokyo open closely for the full reaction
The Yen rose sharply Monday after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house. USD/JPY dropped nearly 0.9%, with the pair trading near 147.50.
With Japanese markets closed for a public holiday, the Yen became the focal point for political risk sentiment. Despite the election result being mostly priced in, the market reacted with a defensive bid for the Yen. USD/JPY had previously hit a 3.5-month high near 149.19 last week.
While Prime Minister Ishiba vows to remain in power, internal and external pressures are mounting — including uncertainty around the U.S.-Japan tariff deadline on August 1. Markets will be watching Tuesday’s Tokyo open closely for the full reaction
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GOLD – Safe Haven Strength Returns
Gold surged past $3,400, reclaiming levels not seen since mid-June. The catalyst? A weaker dollar, falling Treasury yields, and growing demand for safe havens as trade tensions heat up.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick maintained optimism about a deal with the EU but made one thing clear — the August 1 tariff deadline is a hard line. While talks may continue, the baseline 10% tariff is “definitely staying,” at least for now.
The EU, in turn, is preparing its own set of countermeasures, suggesting tensions could get worse before they get better.
Meanwhile, rate cut expectations have crept higher again, with markets now pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed move in September. Add in speculation around Fed leadership changes, and it’s no surprise gold is catching a strong bid.
Gold surged past $3,400, reclaiming levels not seen since mid-June. The catalyst? A weaker dollar, falling Treasury yields, and growing demand for safe havens as trade tensions heat up.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick maintained optimism about a deal with the EU but made one thing clear — the August 1 tariff deadline is a hard line. While talks may continue, the baseline 10% tariff is “definitely staying,” at least for now.
The EU, in turn, is preparing its own set of countermeasures, suggesting tensions could get worse before they get better.
Meanwhile, rate cut expectations have crept higher again, with markets now pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed move in September. Add in speculation around Fed leadership changes, and it’s no surprise gold is catching a strong bid.
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