EdgeFinder's EU Economic Heatmap – Big Data Ahead!
Tomorrow is stacked with high-impact events, and the euro area is in the spotlight.
Tomorrow's News for Europe:
- Italian, French, and German Services PMIs
- ECB Meeting Minutes
Just a few hours later, we’ll shift focus to the US with:
- Unemployment Rate
- Nonfarm Payrolls
This combination of monetary policy insight and labor market data could trigger sharp moves across EUR/USD, equities, and rates markets.
Safe trading everyone!
Tomorrow is stacked with high-impact events, and the euro area is in the spotlight.
Tomorrow's News for Europe:
- Italian, French, and German Services PMIs
- ECB Meeting Minutes
Just a few hours later, we’ll shift focus to the US with:
- Unemployment Rate
- Nonfarm Payrolls
This combination of monetary policy insight and labor market data could trigger sharp moves across EUR/USD, equities, and rates markets.
Safe trading everyone!
👍33❤14👀2
DXY – Relief Rally
The Dollar is catching a relief rally this morning after better-than-expected US jobs data gave bulls something to lean on. NFP, the Unemployment Rate, and Jobless Claims all beat forecasts — lifting the Dollar off recent lows.
Technically, DXY is now pushing higher toward resistance at $98, with support sitting at $96.50. This move follows a sharp selloff earlier in the week, putting the index back at a key pivot zone.
Fundamentally, the strong labor data eases concerns of an immediate economic slowdown and gives the Fed some breathing room. This matters because it pushes back urgency for rate cuts, and stabilizes the narrative after weeks of softer data.
In my opinion, I’m watching to see how far this bounce can carry. Markets had priced in around 62 basis points of cuts, but rate traders are now backing off the idea of a July cut following this print. That repricing could continue if more data supports labor strength.
-Alan
The Dollar is catching a relief rally this morning after better-than-expected US jobs data gave bulls something to lean on. NFP, the Unemployment Rate, and Jobless Claims all beat forecasts — lifting the Dollar off recent lows.
Technically, DXY is now pushing higher toward resistance at $98, with support sitting at $96.50. This move follows a sharp selloff earlier in the week, putting the index back at a key pivot zone.
Fundamentally, the strong labor data eases concerns of an immediate economic slowdown and gives the Fed some breathing room. This matters because it pushes back urgency for rate cuts, and stabilizes the narrative after weeks of softer data.
In my opinion, I’m watching to see how far this bounce can carry. Markets had priced in around 62 basis points of cuts, but rate traders are now backing off the idea of a July cut following this print. That repricing could continue if more data supports labor strength.
-Alan
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GOLD – Stuck in the Middle
Gold is giving back some gains this morning after the US Dollar caught a bid on the back of strong US jobs data. Price is trading between two well-defined zones: sellers around $3,420 and buyers holding near $3,250.
Fundamentally, Gold has recently thrived on Dollar weakness, geopolitical tensions, and its role as a go-to safe haven. But with headlines around tariffs and global conflicts stabilizing, and the Dollar catching a bid, that upward momentum in Gold has started to cool.
In my opinion, the next leg for Gold may depend on how the Dollar behaves post-NFP. If USD strength continues, it could weigh on Gold. But any signs of renewed volatility or soft data could bring buyers back in quickly.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Continued strength in the Dollar
- Stabilizing global conditions reduce safe-haven demand
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Any re-escalation in geopolitical tensions
- Surprise inflation or weak data shifts sentiment back to risk-off
– Alan
Gold is giving back some gains this morning after the US Dollar caught a bid on the back of strong US jobs data. Price is trading between two well-defined zones: sellers around $3,420 and buyers holding near $3,250.
Fundamentally, Gold has recently thrived on Dollar weakness, geopolitical tensions, and its role as a go-to safe haven. But with headlines around tariffs and global conflicts stabilizing, and the Dollar catching a bid, that upward momentum in Gold has started to cool.
In my opinion, the next leg for Gold may depend on how the Dollar behaves post-NFP. If USD strength continues, it could weigh on Gold. But any signs of renewed volatility or soft data could bring buyers back in quickly.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Continued strength in the Dollar
- Stabilizing global conditions reduce safe-haven demand
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Any re-escalation in geopolitical tensions
- Surprise inflation or weak data shifts sentiment back to risk-off
– Alan
❤31👍14💯9
EdgeFinder's US Economic Heatmap
What a day for the US economy — a clean sweep across the board.
Today’s data came in better than expected on all fronts:
Unemployment Rate: 4.1% vs 4.3% forecast
Nonfarm Payrolls: 147K vs 106K forecast
Initial Jobless Claims: 233K vs 240.5K forecast
ISM Services PMI: 52.9 vs 52.8 forecast
The US labor market remains surprisingly resilient. These numbers reinforce the idea that the economy is still holding its own, despite global uncertainty and recent softness in other sectors.
For the Dollar, this data eases pressure on the Fed to cut rates in the near term. In fact, traders have started pulling back bets for a July rate cut, and yields have bounced slightly in response. This could support a short-term DXY rally, depending on how next week’s CPI/PPI data plays out.
Dollar's Eco Surprise Meter ticked up to 54% vs a 50% before the release
Tomorrow is Independence Day in the US and the stock market will be closed — Safe Trading!
What a day for the US economy — a clean sweep across the board.
Today’s data came in better than expected on all fronts:
Unemployment Rate: 4.1% vs 4.3% forecast
Nonfarm Payrolls: 147K vs 106K forecast
Initial Jobless Claims: 233K vs 240.5K forecast
ISM Services PMI: 52.9 vs 52.8 forecast
The US labor market remains surprisingly resilient. These numbers reinforce the idea that the economy is still holding its own, despite global uncertainty and recent softness in other sectors.
For the Dollar, this data eases pressure on the Fed to cut rates in the near term. In fact, traders have started pulling back bets for a July rate cut, and yields have bounced slightly in response. This could support a short-term DXY rally, depending on how next week’s CPI/PPI data plays out.
Dollar's Eco Surprise Meter ticked up to 54% vs a 50% before the release
Tomorrow is Independence Day in the US and the stock market will be closed — Safe Trading!
❤36🫡10😁2
DXY – The Dollar’s Got a Pulse Again?
The Dollar firmed up overnight, with USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD holding steady and commodity pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD tilting lower. This is likely a follow-through from last week’s solid NFP data, but with tariffs and trade headlines back in the mix, the story isn’t too clear
US10Y Yields are pressing up against both the 100 and 200-day MAs near 4.35%. That could provide a tailwind for the Dollar if yields can break and hold above that zone
In my opinion, the risk of a short squeeze remains elevated. Dollar short positioning has gotten crowded, and while the broader narrative hasn’t changed much, any sudden shift in tone from trade headlines or yields could spark an unwind
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Policy and deficit concerns
- Tariff headlines could spook risk sentiment
- Resistance near key levels across pairs
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Crowded short positioning could trigger a squeeze
- Rising yields may offer short-term support for USD
The Dollar firmed up overnight, with USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD holding steady and commodity pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD tilting lower. This is likely a follow-through from last week’s solid NFP data, but with tariffs and trade headlines back in the mix, the story isn’t too clear
US10Y Yields are pressing up against both the 100 and 200-day MAs near 4.35%. That could provide a tailwind for the Dollar if yields can break and hold above that zone
In my opinion, the risk of a short squeeze remains elevated. Dollar short positioning has gotten crowded, and while the broader narrative hasn’t changed much, any sudden shift in tone from trade headlines or yields could spark an unwind
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Policy and deficit concerns
- Tariff headlines could spook risk sentiment
- Resistance near key levels across pairs
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Crowded short positioning could trigger a squeeze
- Rising yields may offer short-term support for USD
❤12👍5🔥2
GOLD – At Equilibrium
Gold is back to trading in a range, with price caught between key levels at $3,400 resistance and $3,250 support. The recent bounce in yields and Dollar strength has taken some wind out of Gold’s sails, keeping momentum muted for now. Until one of these levels breaks, price action remains stuck in a consolidation zone.
The market continues to juggle conflicting forces — rising yields and a stronger Dollar typically weigh on Gold, but geopolitical uncertainty and concerns around US fiscal stability continue to underpin safe-haven demand.
A breakout in yields above 4.35% could pressure Gold further, but if risk sentiment turns or headlines shift toward volatility, buyers may reclaim control quickly.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Rising yields could undermine support
- Dollar strength poses cross-commodity pressure
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Safe-haven demand could return quickly on risk-off events
- Heavy short positioning could unwind fast
Gold is back to trading in a range, with price caught between key levels at $3,400 resistance and $3,250 support. The recent bounce in yields and Dollar strength has taken some wind out of Gold’s sails, keeping momentum muted for now. Until one of these levels breaks, price action remains stuck in a consolidation zone.
The market continues to juggle conflicting forces — rising yields and a stronger Dollar typically weigh on Gold, but geopolitical uncertainty and concerns around US fiscal stability continue to underpin safe-haven demand.
A breakout in yields above 4.35% could pressure Gold further, but if risk sentiment turns or headlines shift toward volatility, buyers may reclaim control quickly.
⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Rising yields could undermine support
- Dollar strength poses cross-commodity pressure
⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Safe-haven demand could return quickly on risk-off events
- Heavy short positioning could unwind fast
❤17👍10🔥3
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✅ Market Sentiment & Economic Heatmaps
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Japan's Economic Heatmap
Japan’s latest economic data is painting a mixed picture. Overall sentiment is neutral for the Yen and slightly bullish for equities.
The US announced a 25% tariff on Japan set to begin August 1st. The news raises concerns about trade-dependent sectors and may weigh on export momentum. Domestically, fiscal caution remains a theme, with Prime Minister Ishiba ruling out debt-financed tax cuts. This comes ahead of the July 20 upper house election.
Japan is balancing strong local consumption against growing global headwinds. With JPY sentiment stuck at 50%, traders may need more clarity from upcoming inflation prints or political outcomes before committing to a directional bias. Currently USD/JPY is supported off of a strong US Dollar.
Japan’s latest economic data is painting a mixed picture. Overall sentiment is neutral for the Yen and slightly bullish for equities.
The US announced a 25% tariff on Japan set to begin August 1st. The news raises concerns about trade-dependent sectors and may weigh on export momentum. Domestically, fiscal caution remains a theme, with Prime Minister Ishiba ruling out debt-financed tax cuts. This comes ahead of the July 20 upper house election.
Japan is balancing strong local consumption against growing global headwinds. With JPY sentiment stuck at 50%, traders may need more clarity from upcoming inflation prints or political outcomes before committing to a directional bias. Currently USD/JPY is supported off of a strong US Dollar.
👍16❤13
AUD/USD – Holding Up
AUD/USD is trading inside resistance around the 0.65500 level. The recent bounce may have marked a short-term top following Friday’s NFP beat, but the structure remains intact for now.
Fundamentally, the RBA surprised markets by keeping rates steady but clarified they’re waiting for the next quarterly CPI before acting again. This pause doesn’t necessarily mean dovishness—just patience.
Meanwhile, the Fed saw a hawkish repricing after strong NFP, Unemployment, and Jobless Claims data, which supported the US Dollar. All eyes now shift to this week’s CPI to determine whether that momentum can continue.
AUD/USD still holds up well in the bigger picture. As long as global growth remains firm, downside may be limited—but a hot CPI print could push us back toward key support levels.
AUD/USD is trading inside resistance around the 0.65500 level. The recent bounce may have marked a short-term top following Friday’s NFP beat, but the structure remains intact for now.
Fundamentally, the RBA surprised markets by keeping rates steady but clarified they’re waiting for the next quarterly CPI before acting again. This pause doesn’t necessarily mean dovishness—just patience.
Meanwhile, the Fed saw a hawkish repricing after strong NFP, Unemployment, and Jobless Claims data, which supported the US Dollar. All eyes now shift to this week’s CPI to determine whether that momentum can continue.
AUD/USD still holds up well in the bigger picture. As long as global growth remains firm, downside may be limited—but a hot CPI print could push us back toward key support levels.
👍13❤6🙏2
USD/JPY – Moving Strong
USD/JPY is testing the top of its range near 146.28, with buyers likely eyeing the next resistance at 148.28. That level has acted as a ceiling before, and sellers may step in there with risk defined above.
Fundamentally, last week’s strong NFP kept the Dollar bid—but soft wage growth capped the rally. On the Yen side, weak wage data and stalled US-Japan negotiations are dragging sentiment. With the BoJ placing weight on trade talks before acting on rates, this adds uncertainty around another hike in 2025.
In my opinion, we’re at a pressure point. Thursday’s Jobless Claims and the final rollout of US tariff policies could drive the next leg. Watch for clean follow-through above or rejection at resistance.
USD/JPY is testing the top of its range near 146.28, with buyers likely eyeing the next resistance at 148.28. That level has acted as a ceiling before, and sellers may step in there with risk defined above.
Fundamentally, last week’s strong NFP kept the Dollar bid—but soft wage growth capped the rally. On the Yen side, weak wage data and stalled US-Japan negotiations are dragging sentiment. With the BoJ placing weight on trade talks before acting on rates, this adds uncertainty around another hike in 2025.
In my opinion, we’re at a pressure point. Thursday’s Jobless Claims and the final rollout of US tariff policies could drive the next leg. Watch for clean follow-through above or rejection at resistance.
❤15🔥10🙏4
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DXY Daily Chart:
The dollar still looks pretty soft on the daily chart, momentum continues to favor downside on the higher timeframes.
With softening US economic data, this could lead to a longer term breakout on gold, and a softer dollar could continue to bolster US equities.
Remember: softer USD typically means rate cuts, and a weaker currency favors international companies that sell abroad.
- Nick
The dollar still looks pretty soft on the daily chart, momentum continues to favor downside on the higher timeframes.
With softening US economic data, this could lead to a longer term breakout on gold, and a softer dollar could continue to bolster US equities.
Remember: softer USD typically means rate cuts, and a weaker currency favors international companies that sell abroad.
- Nick
❤14👀8🔥4
Russell 2000 Daily Chart:
My best trade of the year so far. EdgeFinder bullish reading a few weeks back led to a huge buy-the-dip opportunity, which I was able to take advantage of.
Specifically, the EdgeFinder gave a bullish signal on the idea of cooling inflation + lowering interest rates, and generated a "BULLISH" signal in the EdgeFinder's Top Setups page.
Trailing stops from here, let's see how far it goes!
- Nick
My best trade of the year so far. EdgeFinder bullish reading a few weeks back led to a huge buy-the-dip opportunity, which I was able to take advantage of.
Specifically, the EdgeFinder gave a bullish signal on the idea of cooling inflation + lowering interest rates, and generated a "BULLISH" signal in the EdgeFinder's Top Setups page.
Trailing stops from here, let's see how far it goes!
- Nick
🔥18👍3❤2
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