EdgeFinder's Retail Positioning
This week’s COT data was delayed due to the U.S. holiday, which makes tracking retail positioning important. EdgeFinder’s Retail Sentiment Scanner gives us a real-time look at how the crowd is leaning.
Notable extremes:
PLATINUM: 100% long
USD/CHF: 88% long
GOLD: 76% long
RUSSELL & SILVER: ~93% long
SPX500: 91% short
NASDAQ: 87% short
Retail traders tend to pile in late and get squeezed — especially at key technical zones or after news. That’s why sentiment extremes are best used as a contrarian filter — not a stand-alone signal.
This week’s COT data was delayed due to the U.S. holiday, which makes tracking retail positioning important. EdgeFinder’s Retail Sentiment Scanner gives us a real-time look at how the crowd is leaning.
Notable extremes:
PLATINUM: 100% long
USD/CHF: 88% long
GOLD: 76% long
RUSSELL & SILVER: ~93% long
SPX500: 91% short
NASDAQ: 87% short
Retail traders tend to pile in late and get squeezed — especially at key technical zones or after news. That’s why sentiment extremes are best used as a contrarian filter — not a stand-alone signal.
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USD/CAD – Recovery or the Start of Something Bigger?
USD/CAD has continued to respect a bullish trendline dating back to 2023, bouncing off it twice in the past 30 days. For now, price action is trapped in a range between two key levels: resistance at 1.38000 and support at 1.36000.
Fundamentally, the dollar has faced aggressive selling pressure since April 2, with short positions becoming a crowded trade. However, the Dollar caught a bid following a strong NFP print and has held up since. Next week’s CPI release will be critical, offering insight into the Fed’s rate cut window. The combination of data and ongoing tariff developments may shape the dollar’s broader direction.
In my opinion, the outlook hinges on what comes next. Is this just another bounce within the long-term trend, or are we seeing the early signs of a larger trend reversal?
USD/CAD has continued to respect a bullish trendline dating back to 2023, bouncing off it twice in the past 30 days. For now, price action is trapped in a range between two key levels: resistance at 1.38000 and support at 1.36000.
Fundamentally, the dollar has faced aggressive selling pressure since April 2, with short positions becoming a crowded trade. However, the Dollar caught a bid following a strong NFP print and has held up since. Next week’s CPI release will be critical, offering insight into the Fed’s rate cut window. The combination of data and ongoing tariff developments may shape the dollar’s broader direction.
In my opinion, the outlook hinges on what comes next. Is this just another bounce within the long-term trend, or are we seeing the early signs of a larger trend reversal?
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USOIL – The Summer Trend Holds
In early June, oil broke above a key support level and has held above it ever since. During the initial stages of the Israel-Iran conflict, oil caught a strong bid, but those gains later faded as geopolitical tensions eased. Now, crude is trading just above the newly established support at $64.
For now, this new level of support seems to be holding, and the recent top from the Israel-Iran conflict appears to have solidified into a ceiling for price.
Fundamentally, oil tends to benefit from seasonal tailwinds during the summer months. Demand typically rises, COT positioning remains firm, and weather-related risks, like potential disruptions in the Gulf from hurricane season, add another layer of bullish pressure.
In early June, oil broke above a key support level and has held above it ever since. During the initial stages of the Israel-Iran conflict, oil caught a strong bid, but those gains later faded as geopolitical tensions eased. Now, crude is trading just above the newly established support at $64.
For now, this new level of support seems to be holding, and the recent top from the Israel-Iran conflict appears to have solidified into a ceiling for price.
Fundamentally, oil tends to benefit from seasonal tailwinds during the summer months. Demand typically rises, COT positioning remains firm, and weather-related risks, like potential disruptions in the Gulf from hurricane season, add another layer of bullish pressure.
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EdgeFinder’s CPI Chart
The Fed’s meeting minutes released today pointed to a shared expectation: lower inflation ahead. While some members flagged the possibility of a July rate cut, others signaled no cuts until 2025. The common ground? The Fed is ready to act—as soon as the data justifies it.
One of the most important data points is coming up next week: CPI (Consumer Price Index). This is a key measure of inflation, reflecting the change in the prices of goods and services paid by consumers. It’s one of the most watched indicators by the Fed when deciding on interest rates.
CPI currently sits at 2.4%, slightly above the Fed’s 2% target. Interestingly, 2.4% was the turning point last October, where inflation pressures began to tick back up. This makes the upcoming release especially critical—a moment that could shape the path forward for the Dollar, Equities, and Yields.
The Fed’s meeting minutes released today pointed to a shared expectation: lower inflation ahead. While some members flagged the possibility of a July rate cut, others signaled no cuts until 2025. The common ground? The Fed is ready to act—as soon as the data justifies it.
One of the most important data points is coming up next week: CPI (Consumer Price Index). This is a key measure of inflation, reflecting the change in the prices of goods and services paid by consumers. It’s one of the most watched indicators by the Fed when deciding on interest rates.
CPI currently sits at 2.4%, slightly above the Fed’s 2% target. Interestingly, 2.4% was the turning point last October, where inflation pressures began to tick back up. This makes the upcoming release especially critical—a moment that could shape the path forward for the Dollar, Equities, and Yields.
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GBP/USD – Momentum Slips as Data Shifts
GBP/USD has been under pressure, closing red in five of the last six sessions. Price is currently trading in a defined range, with resistance at 1.37500 and support at 1.34000. Today’s minor bounce follows a string of losses driven largely by shifting fundamentals.
Fundamentally, EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter for the Pound has fallen to 40%, confirming the bearish pressure. Just weeks ago, when GBP was trending higher, this reading sat well above 50%—signaling consistent beats in UK data.
The move lower has been driven by a combination of softer UK prints and strong US labor data. With both NFP and Jobless Claims beating expectations, the Dollar remains firm, weighing on GBP/USD. If this divergence continues, price could retest support—but traders should watch upcoming data before assuming a breakout either way.
GBP/USD has been under pressure, closing red in five of the last six sessions. Price is currently trading in a defined range, with resistance at 1.37500 and support at 1.34000. Today’s minor bounce follows a string of losses driven largely by shifting fundamentals.
Fundamentally, EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter for the Pound has fallen to 40%, confirming the bearish pressure. Just weeks ago, when GBP was trending higher, this reading sat well above 50%—signaling consistent beats in UK data.
The move lower has been driven by a combination of softer UK prints and strong US labor data. With both NFP and Jobless Claims beating expectations, the Dollar remains firm, weighing on GBP/USD. If this divergence continues, price could retest support—but traders should watch upcoming data before assuming a breakout either way.
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USD/CHF – Swissy Stays Strong
The Swiss Franc is holding near 0.796. It's up nearly 13% year-to-date, as safe-haven demand keeps capital flowing into CHF during ongoing US trade uncertainty. Recently, it has given up some of it's strength after the US saw better-than-expected labor data.
The Franc’s strength has persisted despite the Swiss National Bank’s efforts to slow appreciation. That momentum has been fueled by unpredictable US policy, particularly on trade and security. Recent Swiss CPI data surprised to the upside, with inflation rising 0.1% YoY in June, putting it back inside the SNB’s 0–2% target range.
With domestic inflation stabilizing, the SNB is expected to hold rates steady at 0% in September—and likely into 2026. This combination of safe-haven flows, solid fundamentals, and a neutral SNB stance continues to support CHF strength against the Dollar. Currently USD/CHF is catching a bid, recouping some of its recent losses.
The Swiss Franc is holding near 0.796. It's up nearly 13% year-to-date, as safe-haven demand keeps capital flowing into CHF during ongoing US trade uncertainty. Recently, it has given up some of it's strength after the US saw better-than-expected labor data.
The Franc’s strength has persisted despite the Swiss National Bank’s efforts to slow appreciation. That momentum has been fueled by unpredictable US policy, particularly on trade and security. Recent Swiss CPI data surprised to the upside, with inflation rising 0.1% YoY in June, putting it back inside the SNB’s 0–2% target range.
With domestic inflation stabilizing, the SNB is expected to hold rates steady at 0% in September—and likely into 2026. This combination of safe-haven flows, solid fundamentals, and a neutral SNB stance continues to support CHF strength against the Dollar. Currently USD/CHF is catching a bid, recouping some of its recent losses.
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My team did a nice job putting together a breakdown on the Russell 2000 trade I have running.
Read the full trade breakdown here: https://www.a1trading.com/how-nick-capitalized-on-small-cap-strength-a-deep-dive-into-his-us2000-trade/ @everyone
Read the full trade breakdown here: https://www.a1trading.com/how-nick-capitalized-on-small-cap-strength-a-deep-dive-into-his-us2000-trade/ @everyone
A1 Trading
Nick’s Big Win on Small Caps: What He Saw Before the Breakout - A1 Trading
In one of his most successful trades of the year so far, Nick capitalized on a major breakout in the Russell 2000 (US2000) index, driven by a combination of macroeconomic shifts and well-timed entries. Let’s break down the trade, the reasoning behind it,…
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EdgeFinder's Forex Scanner
GBP/USD has been under pressure, dropping for 6 of the last 7 trading days. This move comes as the US labor market continues to beat expectations — with recent NFP and jobless claims data both coming in stronger than forecast — while the Pound sees weakening domestic momentum.
The EdgeFinder score for GBP/USD stands at -5 (Bearish). A closer look shows bearish COT filings, negative seasonality for July, and a recent dip in the Eco Surprise Meter to 40%, a bearish threshold. Meanwhile, the Dollar has regained strength on strong labor data and mixed rate expectations.
COT data reveals a shift in sentiment: net long positions on the Dollar increased 3.6% last week, while GBP long interest fell. Technically, the pair is stuck between resistance at 1.3750 and support at 1.3400, trading lower for now. US CPI due next week — a potential catalyst for breakout or breakdown
GBP/USD has been under pressure, dropping for 6 of the last 7 trading days. This move comes as the US labor market continues to beat expectations — with recent NFP and jobless claims data both coming in stronger than forecast — while the Pound sees weakening domestic momentum.
The EdgeFinder score for GBP/USD stands at -5 (Bearish). A closer look shows bearish COT filings, negative seasonality for July, and a recent dip in the Eco Surprise Meter to 40%, a bearish threshold. Meanwhile, the Dollar has regained strength on strong labor data and mixed rate expectations.
COT data reveals a shift in sentiment: net long positions on the Dollar increased 3.6% last week, while GBP long interest fell. Technically, the pair is stuck between resistance at 1.3750 and support at 1.3400, trading lower for now. US CPI due next week — a potential catalyst for breakout or breakdown
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NZD/USD – Decision Point
NZD/USD reversed lower today, breaking its short 2 day winning streak. The pair is back below the 0.6020 mark, showing signs of fading momentum after failing to hold recent highs. Price action is caught between 0.6000 support and 0.6100 resistance.
Fundamentally, Kiwi dollar is under pressure after fresh tariff threats from President Trump. His proposal to impose sweeping 15–20% tariffs on most trade partners is a clear risk to export-reliant economies like New Zealand, which previously faced just a 10% levy. Meanwhile, the RBNZ held rates steady at 3.25% but hinted at a possible rate cut in August if conditions allow. Markets are now pricing in a 65% chance of a cut next month, with another move potentially coming later this year.
Tariff fears and rising rate cut bets have flipped sentiment on the Kiwi. A break below 0.6000 may open the door for further downside, especially if US dollar strength persists.
NZD/USD reversed lower today, breaking its short 2 day winning streak. The pair is back below the 0.6020 mark, showing signs of fading momentum after failing to hold recent highs. Price action is caught between 0.6000 support and 0.6100 resistance.
Fundamentally, Kiwi dollar is under pressure after fresh tariff threats from President Trump. His proposal to impose sweeping 15–20% tariffs on most trade partners is a clear risk to export-reliant economies like New Zealand, which previously faced just a 10% levy. Meanwhile, the RBNZ held rates steady at 3.25% but hinted at a possible rate cut in August if conditions allow. Markets are now pricing in a 65% chance of a cut next month, with another move potentially coming later this year.
Tariff fears and rising rate cut bets have flipped sentiment on the Kiwi. A break below 0.6000 may open the door for further downside, especially if US dollar strength persists.
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JGB 30 Year Yields – Blind Spot?
Japan’s 30-year government bond yield broke above 3% for the first time since 2000, signaling a major shift in the country’s rate environment. This could unwind carry trades that rely on cheap yen funding, leading to JPY strength and global risk-off volatility. Japanese investors may also begin repatriating capital—especially from U.S. Treasuries—adding pressure to global yields and equities.
Rising JGB yields are shaking up one of the market’s most important funding dynamics. If repatriation accelerates or carry trades unwind aggressively, the yen could strengthen sharply and send ripples across global markets. All eyes are now on whether the BOJ steps in—or lets this regime shift play out.
Japan’s 30-year government bond yield broke above 3% for the first time since 2000, signaling a major shift in the country’s rate environment. This could unwind carry trades that rely on cheap yen funding, leading to JPY strength and global risk-off volatility. Japanese investors may also begin repatriating capital—especially from U.S. Treasuries—adding pressure to global yields and equities.
Rising JGB yields are shaking up one of the market’s most important funding dynamics. If repatriation accelerates or carry trades unwind aggressively, the yen could strengthen sharply and send ripples across global markets. All eyes are now on whether the BOJ steps in—or lets this regime shift play out.
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If you’re ready to level up your strategy like they did — and finally get a clear, data-backed view of the markets — now’s the time.
📊 Get 40% off the EdgeFinder with code TGVIP
Biggest sale of the year. Limited time only.
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