A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
Does this chart make anyone else nervous? This is the Chinese 10 YR yield chart, and it is signaling some concerning outlook for the Chinese economy. This keeps me a little hesitant on getting overly bullish on oil and other industrial commodities for now...…
Just to elaborate...
When yields fall, it often signals that investors are more cautious about the economy. They might be seeking the safety of government bonds, which are perceived as low-risk investments, leading to an increase in bond prices and a decrease in yields. This can indicate expectations of slower economic growth or even a looming recession. For instance, declining yields have been associated with investor wariness or a flight to safety during times of economic uncertainty.
Falling yields can be a response to or anticipation of monetary policy easing by the central bank, such as lowering the policy rate. This action is generally taken to stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper. A decrease in yields might suggest that the central bank could cut rates further to support economic growth. However, if yields fall too low, it might also reflect expectations of prolonged low inflation or deflationary pressures
- Nick
When yields fall, it often signals that investors are more cautious about the economy. They might be seeking the safety of government bonds, which are perceived as low-risk investments, leading to an increase in bond prices and a decrease in yields. This can indicate expectations of slower economic growth or even a looming recession. For instance, declining yields have been associated with investor wariness or a flight to safety during times of economic uncertainty.
Falling yields can be a response to or anticipation of monetary policy easing by the central bank, such as lowering the policy rate. This action is generally taken to stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper. A decrease in yields might suggest that the central bank could cut rates further to support economic growth. However, if yields fall too low, it might also reflect expectations of prolonged low inflation or deflationary pressures
- Nick
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Retail sentiment shows there is a bullish bias for DOW, gold, RUSSELL, USOil and Silver. The neutral camp has NASDAQ, S&P and NIKKEI. The crowd is also bullish Bitcoin which could suggest a reversal coming soon.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Smart money is long yen and the US indices. Meanwhile, NIKKEI is the only bearish index in the market right now. Bitcoin finally saw some demand from institutional activity although it was not very much of an added position.
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Despite a recent beat in NFP ten days ago, the trend for revisions has gone down significantly since the same time last year. The fact inflation persists while jobs declines is why investors are scared of stagflation, looking for gold and bitcoin plays, and scared of the Fed.
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Forwarded from A1 TRADING | Stocks & Options
NVDA Daily Chart:
Technical setup alert... Price is pulling back to the 100 day moving average.
This is a rare thing for NVIDIA these days, also tagging support around 128 per share.
Is this the low, or will we test the 200 day moving average?
- Nick
Technical setup alert... Price is pulling back to the 100 day moving average.
This is a rare thing for NVIDIA these days, also tagging support around 128 per share.
Is this the low, or will we test the 200 day moving average?
- Nick
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Forwarded from A1 TRADING | Stocks & Options
How experienced are you with trading options?
Anonymous Poll
44%
No experience
24%
Beginner
24%
Intermediate
8%
Advanced
Forwarded from A1 TRADING | Stocks & Options
For those who answered no experience, why not?
Anonymous Poll
25%
No interest in trading options
36%
Not enough capital
33%
It's too complicated
15%
Other
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NASDAQ
NAS is the top bullish score on the EdgeFinder so far at a +7 bullish reading. Markets are slightly down this morning just before the FOMC meeting and rate decision at 2 pm EST. There is an overwhelming expectation that we will see a 25 bps cut again, but that does not give the green light for stocks. We will have to listen closely to what Powell says about monetary policy in 2025. It seems like we may be expecting less cuts in the new year with inflation being stubborn and labor numbers dropping. In all, today’s meeting will probably not be that dovish. It would not be surprising to see the index pull back 4-5% over the span of a few weeks to end the year which could end up being a good opportunity for buyers come January.
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NAS is the top bullish score on the EdgeFinder so far at a +7 bullish reading. Markets are slightly down this morning just before the FOMC meeting and rate decision at 2 pm EST. There is an overwhelming expectation that we will see a 25 bps cut again, but that does not give the green light for stocks. We will have to listen closely to what Powell says about monetary policy in 2025. It seems like we may be expecting less cuts in the new year with inflation being stubborn and labor numbers dropping. In all, today’s meeting will probably not be that dovish. It would not be surprising to see the index pull back 4-5% over the span of a few weeks to end the year which could end up being a good opportunity for buyers come January.
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Gold
Gold continues to look choppy between $2,600-2,720s which is a rather large consolidation zone. Trading these swings would have considerable changes in value. If the Fed mentions not wanting to cut as much in 2025, it might be bearish for gold as well. However, if we get a confirmation on stagflation from economists, this could pump demand back into the metal as investors will dump the dollar in search of the metal or even crypto.
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Gold continues to look choppy between $2,600-2,720s which is a rather large consolidation zone. Trading these swings would have considerable changes in value. If the Fed mentions not wanting to cut as much in 2025, it might be bearish for gold as well. However, if we get a confirmation on stagflation from economists, this could pump demand back into the metal as investors will dump the dollar in search of the metal or even crypto.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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📉 Breaking News: Fed Cuts Interest Rates Again!
Today, the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
This marks the third consecutive rate cut this year, signaling the Fed's ongoing efforts to stimulate the economy.
Key Takeaways:
📉 Rate Cut: 0.25 percentage point reduction, now at 4.25%–4.5%.
🏦 Fed's Stance: Indicates a slower pace of easing in 2025 to balance economic growth and inflation control.
📈 Market Reaction: Following the announcement, U.S. stocks declined, and the dollar strengthened, reflecting investor sentiment and market adjustments.
Today, the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
This marks the third consecutive rate cut this year, signaling the Fed's ongoing efforts to stimulate the economy.
Key Takeaways:
📉 Rate Cut: 0.25 percentage point reduction, now at 4.25%–4.5%.
🏦 Fed's Stance: Indicates a slower pace of easing in 2025 to balance economic growth and inflation control.
📈 Market Reaction: Following the announcement, U.S. stocks declined, and the dollar strengthened, reflecting investor sentiment and market adjustments.
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Stay ahead of the curve by joining our VIP Discord community. Gain real-time insights into how we're navigating these market movements and access exclusive trade setups.
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The VIX spiked massively today as the market reacted to what felt like a confirmation from Powell that we are likely on pause for rate cuts until further notice.
Guiding just 2 cuts for next year, high risk stocks sold off very hard today.
For me personally, being on the sidelines and cash heavy was very difficult the last few weeks.
Being patient and not chasing stocks is a lesson I've learnt the hard way too many times...
I took a position today in the Nasdaq near the closing low, and will now begin to find some opportunities - especially if the market continues to sell down.
Feeling a bit vindicated in my cautionary language the last few weeks...
- Nick
Guiding just 2 cuts for next year, high risk stocks sold off very hard today.
For me personally, being on the sidelines and cash heavy was very difficult the last few weeks.
Being patient and not chasing stocks is a lesson I've learnt the hard way too many times...
I took a position today in the Nasdaq near the closing low, and will now begin to find some opportunities - especially if the market continues to sell down.
Feeling a bit vindicated in my cautionary language the last few weeks...
- Nick
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Forwarded from A1 TRADING | Stocks & Options
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