NASDAQ got kicked off the strongest bullish score on our list after yesterday's 5% drop from the highs. Investors were hoping for an aggressive Fed to cut back down to under 3% in 2025, but it looks like it won't be happening. As a result, we might not be seeing the euphoric market that we thought next year. If that is the case, 2025 could be another choppy year littered with uncertainties. Today, we could see a similar move to yesterday if this bounce is a bull trap. Further support is around $20,700 if we continue to see a drop.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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The main fear gauge used in the markets is the VIX which spike over 70% yesterday in the last two hours of trading. Although this is a bad sign for the bulls, there is a common pattern for every time the VIX breaks above $22 in the past year. Each time we get a spike in volatility, it is shortly quelled before buyers step back in. The VIX dropped 20% after flying through $28. Although volatility may drop, bearish sentiment may linger in the stock market.
-Frank
-Frank
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This is the interest rate forecast going into Q3 of 2025 in the US. Rates are depicted to drop to 4.25% (which is only a 25 bps move from here) and remain there until perhaps Q4. Powell said only 2 more rate cuts are expected for now.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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USDCAD is the top bullish score on the EdgeFinder now as the dollar gains more demand from investors who are expecting interest rates to be elevated for longer. This news caused risk sentiment to slow down and money to flow back into the dollar.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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NZDUSD is the top bearish pair on our list right now for the same reasons as USDCAD. Since the rest of the world is trying to ease as well, a Fed pause in 2025 would keep the value of the dollar higher than other countries' currencies. Just from looking at the EF score, we can tell that the economics in the US are healthier than in New Zealand. So less rate cuts to work on bringing inflation down will only help the USD.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Gold is still a neutral reading because of two contradicting signals. The bullish signal is that stagflation poses a severe threat in 2025, an indicator of extreme bullishness for the metal. However, the Fed has decided to keep from devaluing the dollar for the time being in order to battle inflation again. So gold is kind of stuck in this uncertain market where demand is hesitant.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Retail sentiment is leaning back into metals, commodities, small caps and Dow. Meanwhile, other global indices are in the neutral camp and the only asset being sold by the crowd is USDCAD, which has been our top bullish pair on the EdgeFinder.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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USD, CHF, NIKKEI, bond notes, and SPX were the top bought assets last week. Meanwhile, NASDAQ and RUSSELL were neutral. Smart money actually sold blue chips last week suggesting that demand is going into a broader market index such as SPX while leaving tech, small caps and blue chips out of the equation.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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