Oil might be the strongest bullish bias according to COT reports. As the number of long contracts rise and short contracts fall, the positional bias continues to climb higher in the bullish rating. Gold still has a higher spot on the table than USOil, but last week's activity suggests more of a bias for the latter.
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BOUGHT USOil UPDATE (Entered 1 days ago)
📈 Bought at: 80.8080 (Floating +258.20 pips 🔥)
🚫 Stop: 82.059 (Trailed: +125.10 pips above entry)
🎯 Target: N/A
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📈 Bought at: 80.8080 (Floating +258.20 pips 🔥)
🚫 Stop: 82.059 (Trailed: +125.10 pips above entry)
🎯 Target: N/A
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SPX500
The stock market is under pressure with credit rating downgrades and recent new in China. Deflationary fears and falling exports from the Chinese economy has caused a lessoning in global demand. On top of that, USD CPI comes out this Thursday. Expectations are unchanged from last month on both CPI and Core CPI. CPI y/y is expected to rise though. However, the EF still likes this index on the bullish side of the trade. On the 1D timeframe, price is a little over 3% away from its March highs of 2022. The index pulled back before testing that area and is now heading lower towards support. A potential level of support could be around $4,460 where there is a previous top and trend line.
The stock market is under pressure with credit rating downgrades and recent new in China. Deflationary fears and falling exports from the Chinese economy has caused a lessoning in global demand. On top of that, USD CPI comes out this Thursday. Expectations are unchanged from last month on both CPI and Core CPI. CPI y/y is expected to rise though. However, the EF still likes this index on the bullish side of the trade. On the 1D timeframe, price is a little over 3% away from its March highs of 2022. The index pulled back before testing that area and is now heading lower towards support. A potential level of support could be around $4,460 where there is a previous top and trend line.
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My gameplan for #CPI tomorrow:
If headline YoY CPI is higher than expected (3.3%), I'll be looking to sell indices & long USD
If headline YoY CPI is lower than expected, I'll be looking to sell USD & long indices
- Nick
If headline YoY CPI is higher than expected (3.3%), I'll be looking to sell indices & long USD
If headline YoY CPI is lower than expected, I'll be looking to sell USD & long indices
- Nick
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USDCAD is scored as the most bullish asset on the EdgeFinder as of now. At +8, USD has the upper hand on the Canadian dollar in a number of categories. For one, the fundamentals are pointing to a stronger dollar than CAD. With a higher interest rate, lower unemployment, higher inflation, and higher GDP growth, USD is looking stronger.
However, smart money has yet to show anything definitive yet. Institutions seemed to be mostly mixed this pair as COT reports show about the same ratio for both currencies. Today's CPI numbers in the US remained unchanged on Core and CPI, and y/y rose by cooler than expected. Softer inflation readings could be a weaker sign for USD as the Fed may not look to be as aggressive as before.
However, smart money has yet to show anything definitive yet. Institutions seemed to be mostly mixed this pair as COT reports show about the same ratio for both currencies. Today's CPI numbers in the US remained unchanged on Core and CPI, and y/y rose by cooler than expected. Softer inflation readings could be a weaker sign for USD as the Fed may not look to be as aggressive as before.
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These numbers seem to be having a delayed effect on indices which were falling into the red in the moments before the opening bell. Unchanged CPI and Core CPI could also be an argument for tighter monetary control, but analysts don't seem to be worried about the Fed's 'soft landing' goal being fulfilled.
On the 4H, price continued making lower lows until around the $4,460s. Now price is up against resistance on a falling trend line which it has already tested before. If the SPX500 can break higher, we could be looking at a shift in direction and a possible test back at the highs.
On the 4H, price continued making lower lows until around the $4,460s. Now price is up against resistance on a falling trend line which it has already tested before. If the SPX500 can break higher, we could be looking at a shift in direction and a possible test back at the highs.
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USOil gets a "Very Bullish" reading on the EdgeFinder for a number of reasons (literally). Almost all the fundamentals check the boxes despite interest rates. Smart money and retail look healthy for a bullish bias. The growing interest from institutions is something to consider for the past couple weeks.
Inflation almost seems like a win-win for oil. This is because higher inflation usually helps oil price rise. But lower inflation in this environment also could mean a less restrictive Fed policy in the future. Either way, it's catching lots of demand from various factors and COT being one.
Inflation almost seems like a win-win for oil. This is because higher inflation usually helps oil price rise. But lower inflation in this environment also could mean a less restrictive Fed policy in the future. Either way, it's catching lots of demand from various factors and COT being one.
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