Goldman Sachs: Trump's tariffs are hitting American companies and consumers the most.

While the U.S. economy is coping with the effects of tariff increases imposed by the Trump administration, a new Goldman Sachs analysis paints a mixed picture of cost allocation and long-term impacts.

According to a recent report mentioned in a post on X by trade economist Scott Lincicome, the first data for the period up to June 2025 shows that foreign exporters took on only 14% of the tariff burden, while American companies incurred a whopping 64% and American consumers 22%. This breakdown highlights how tariffs designed to protect domestic industry often spread through supply chains in unexpected ways.


An analysis conducted by Goldman Sachs Research shows that "protected" American companies — those that are protected by tariffs on foreign competitors — have taken advantage of the situation by raising their prices. Such an opportunistic pricing policy increased inflationary pressures, which primarily affected consumers.

Lincicome's post notes that prices for consumers may rise by up to 70% by the fall, which will worsen the already strained situation of household budgets affected by broader economic problems.

Going deeper into the analysis, Goldman Sachs economists predict that these tariffs will not only lead to higher costs, but also disrupt corporate profits. In a Goldman Sachs article published in February 2025, analysts warned that a stronger dollar, possibly caused by tariffs, could lead to a 2% decrease in profits for S&P 500 companies for every 10% strengthening of the currency, given that 28% of revenue comes from abroad. This was confirmed by the earnings reports for the second quarter, as detailed in a Goldman Sachs analyst article dated July 2025, which showed the first profit losses, especially for multinational companies dependent on imported resources.

According to a Lincicom analysis published in April 2025 on X, American manufacturers, in particular, will face a 5-15% increase in production costs due to duties on imported materials. This decrease in competitiveness is evident in foreign markets, where American exporters are struggling with competitors who are not subject to customs duties. The Times of India newspaper reported just four days ago that similar tariff dynamics prompted Goldman Sachs to lower India's GDP forecast for 2025, highlighting the global consequences that could boomerang for American companies in the form of lower export demand.

For consumers, tariffs are far from an abstract thing. Goldman Sachs estimates that effective tariff rates could rise to 14 percentage points by the end of 2025, even with the unannounced increases, as noted in the Seeking Alpha article two weeks ago. This will lead to higher prices for everyday goods, from electronics to clothing, which will affect low-income households the most. An article in the Economic Times from last week echoed this thought, citing Fitch Ratings data, according to which US tariffs on Indian goods jumped from 2.4% a year earlier to 20.7%, which indirectly led to higher costs for American importers and, ultimately, for buyers.

In addition, the uncertainty generated by tariffs is holding back investment. In his posts on X dated May and July 2025, Lincicome refers to Goldman Sachs forecasts for a reduction in capital expenditures, which will lead to a decrease in capital and per capita consumption over time.

This long-term decline in productivity, including a shift to less efficient domestic enterprises and reduced innovation, could lead to lower U.S. GDP growth, as outlined in Goldman's April 2025 report on the risk of a tariff-induced recession.

#Trump #Tariffs #GoldmanSachs #USEconomy #TradeWar #Inflation #ConsumerPrices #USPolitics #Manufacturing #GlobalTrade #EconomicImpact

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